Eating Recommendations for your New Year's Resolutions

You have heard it from me before, Eat Plant Based, as much as you possibly can.

It is a simple program, it truthfully is not hard to follow, there are no cost penalties, there are no technical stoppers, it will benefit your health, AND it will benefit the sustainability of our Earth for future generations.

Many of you know Dorthy Greet who sent me this link from J. Morris Hicks. He advocates eating at least 80% plant based. That is about where I am, as I do eat a bit of fish that I catch.

Since it is now 4 pm on New Years Eve, I will conclude. But in 2014, I hope you will take the time to watch Morris' to the point short video, and followup on his very constructive recommendations for you, and for Our Earth.

All the best for a healthy and happy new year,
Bill

How Global Warming Works

If you are an OLLI student of Bill's Climate classes, you should know the correct answer.

Want to check your interpretation, or find a concise explanation to send to others, visit:

HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org  My preference among their videos is the under 3 minutes video.

Fall 2013 Class Presentations, and OB's outlook

It has been a busy time for me since our class ended, but I have finally gotten up the entire Fall 2013 class presentations. Again, thanks so much for your interest, enthusiasm and great questions. You are the ones that "pay" the OLLI instructors, with a currency much more valuable than dollars.

I am also looking forward to doing future climate classes with OLLI. And yes, I will try to be more optimistic in my outlook and predictions. I really do think WE, the people of the World, have the capabilities to prevent a climate change catastrophe. We just have to put together a unified plan.

Happy Holidays,
Optimistic Bill (aka OB)

Vegan Diet Significantly Minimizes Climate Change

You may wonder, where is the link? But I am sure most of you know the connection. Raising beef, pork and chicken...and even farm raised fish, is a very inefficient use of our limited resources, and the waste involved ultimately generates a LOT of greenhouse gases, like CO2 and methane.

And probably good numbers of you are vegan, or almost vegan (like me). Now for those that are not, maybe Dr. McDougall can give you some added inspiration through his long term relationship with Al Gore, who after 7 years of consideration, has just now declared himself a vegan.

A partial believer? but want a bit more convincing, try McDougall on potatoes.

Climate Knowledge Resources - Wikipedia

I think you all recognize how useful I have found Wikipedia in preparation for my last Predicting Climate Change course.

Wikipedia is run by the non-profit organization Wikimedia. This means you see no ads as you search Wikipedia. It also means Wikipedia has no special interest groups it is supporting, and in return receiving funds from.

So I encourage you to support Wikipedia financially, as I have been doing.
Bill

For Wikipedia details, here are links attached to my donation receipt letter:

"This letter may serve as a record of your donation. No goods or services were provided, in whole or in part, for this contribution. The Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. is a non-profit charitable corporation with 501(c)(3) tax exempt status in the United States. Our address is 149 New Montgomery, 3rd Floor, San Francisco, CA, 94105. U.S. tax-exempt number: 20-0049703
You can follow us on Twitter, identi.ca or Google+, like us on Facebook and read our blog. Here is the Wikimedia Foundation annual report for 2010-11, the Wikimedia Foundation annual plan for 2012-13 and the Wikimedia Foundation’s five-year strategic plan. You can also now buy Wikipedia merchandise at shop.wikimedia.org."

Worse than Climate Change? Increasingly rampant use of pesticides could be!

Yes! It could bring catastrophes right to our door steps, as opposed to a century away, as with global warming.

This NY Times article was sent to me by class member and Sussex Bird Cub President, John Hoyt. It is very alarming, but very hard to dispute.

From my perspective - Yes, I have seen far fewer Monarchs this fall. I have also seen far fewer wild bees at our flowers. And I have read very troubling articles about Lowes and Home Depot selling flower plants so heavily dosed with pesticides that bees are dying by the thousands in their parking lots, not to mention your backyard.

And at the Rehoboth Film Festival, Sally and I watched More Than Honey about the bee decline, in a large part due to pesticides, and about how so many of our food crops are dependent on bee pollination. From the film, an Einstein quote, "If bees ever die out, mankind will die out 4 years later".

So where is Obama on this issue? Well, he does not look to be well positioned. But then if I lived in China or Russia, right now my future would probably look bleak as well. Hope you all can swim.

LENR - Low Energy Nuclear Reactions

Now with a headache and an overwhelmed brain, I offer the best two links I could find on the title subject.

First, from New Energy Times: LENR is Not "Cold Fusion" - A Crucial Distinction

And second from Wikipedia when I searched for LENR and got: Cold Fusion
In paragraph 5 of this link the authors make the statement: A small community of researchers continues to investigate cold fusion, now often preferring the designation low-energy nuclear reactions (LENR).

What is my opinion at this point? It would be great if LENR could be developed as a green energy source, but I am not optimistic, especially since the science can not be explained. If after researching it further, you come to a different conclusion, I would love to hear it. I did sign up for email headline notices from New Energy Times, but did NOT subscribe to their full publication at $40/yr.

Bloom Energy - An indepth look

Bloom Energy produces Bloom Boxes, which use fuel cell technology to convert methane and oxygen from air into electricity and carbon dioxide. They have gotten a lot of good press about being environmentally friendly, green energy, etc. However, when one looks at the numbers, there is considerable doubt cast about the validity of those claims. From the Institute for Energy Research (IER) comes this analysis, The Bloom is Off Bloom Energy

Bloom Boxes are being produced in Delaware, and the company is being aided by major subsidies funded in part by higher utility bills, the appropriateness of which is now being challenged in the court.

UK Offshore Wind Capacity Rises 80 Percent in One Year

This article from Renewable Energy News is encouraging about the growth of renewable energy, in this case wind energy. For perspective, an average coal-fired power plant's capacity is 500 Megawatts (MW). So the UK just added the equivalent of 3 coal fired power plants in wind turbines in one year.

Seems like a good achievement to me. I hope you will read the article, and make your own conclusions. The other key question is: What is the status in the US and in Delaware? More on that in the future.

“The sky is not falling, but the water is rising,”

What a magnificent quote for the reality ahead. That quote was by Charles Tear, the Miami Beach emergency management coordinator, and it was in a NY Times article, South Florida Faces Ominous Prospects from Rising Waters,

At the end of the article are these 2 paragraphs:

Officials here are seeking advice from the Netherlands, famous for its highly effective levees and dikes, but the very different topography of Miami Beach and its sister coastal cities does not lend itself to the fixes engineered by the Dutch. 

“Ultimately, you can’t beat nature, but you can learn to live with it,” Mr. Morales said. “Human ingenuity is incredible, but do we have the political will? Holland sets aside $1 billion a year for flood mitigation, and we have a lot more coastline than they do.” 

Many thanks to John Hoyt for spotting this article and sending me the link.

Climate Tipping Points

For a report commissioned jointly by Allianz, a leading global financial services provider, and WWF, a leading global environmental NGO, and prepared by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, see Climate Tipping Points.

This link contains several short videos narrated by Timothy Lenton, a researcher at the University of East Anglia, and lead author of the highly cited paper, Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.

A Positive: The Ocean Heat Sink is working.....

...which means much of the added energy from the greenhouse gas warming is being stored in the deep oceans. But what does this really mean to us humans???

If a substantial amount of global warming ends up warming the deep oceans, does this means we will not be affected by that portion of global warming?

A very hard question to answer. The Latest ocean research shows the oceans are indeed absorbing a substantial amount of heat due to greenhouse gas warming, and the best scientific estimates are that, YES, it will impact world inhabitants, just later as opposed to now.

My view on how this will first impact our World?

It will further undermine the West Antarctic Sheet (WAIS) grounding on the bed rock it rests on. This will lead to an accelerated collapse of the WAIS and a substantial rise in sea level. This sea level rise coupled with what is already going on in melting the Greenland ice sheet (largely unrelated to deep water warming), will mean sea levels rise so precipitously, that millions of people will be forced to become Climate Migrants (Climigration).

Where? Bangladesh and the Maldives for sure, most probably New Orleans, Lewes and Rehoboth-DE, New York City, and MANY other places around the World.

So "Optimistic Bill"....What would you do???

I would put more money into making nuclear fusion work. That is a route that essentially will work for all time....as best we can define that phrase.

Optimistic Bill

PS - I am loving the Rehoboth Film Festival, and just saw The Rocket. I used to love to make rockets as a kid.... and I got pretty good at it. But the 10 year old star of this moving far eclipsed me.

Fusion Power Optimism at NIF

NIF = National Ignition Facility, and they have very recently used high power lasers to compress a Hydrogen fuel pellet enough to achieve a fusion reaction releasing more energy than the laser beams contained. According to the BBC, this was a first in the quest for power generation via nuclear fusion, which is combining light atoms, as opposed to conventional nuclear fission, which involves splitting heavy atoms, like uranium.

More on this in Class 5. Optimistic Bill

Climate Change Tipping Points from Wake Up, Freak Out

We will be watching the linked video in our upcoming class, but it is well worth watching two or more times to grasp all the concepts presented. The video link is HERE.

Want more information about the creators, go to wakeupfreakout.org

And please note that this video does not portray the forecast changes as inevitable, so to Judy Hendricks (who was seeking some optimism at the end of our last class) and to all of our Class, lets hear from you about some of your optimistic ideas to avert catastrophic climate change. This will be our main subject in class 5, and lots of class time will be available for discussion of ideas, new info, etc. I am usually optimistic, so lets see what we can come up with. Bill

OTEC Followup from today's class

See Hawaii Ocean Science and Technology Park for latest details on OTEC scale-up efforts. As a reminder, OTEC stands for Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion. And as I mentioned in class today, Sally and I plan to visit this facility in Jan 2014, and of course will update you with what we see and learn.

Global Warming Put to Music

After yesterday's anouncement by Obama of the formation of a climate change task force (which includes Delaware's Markell), maybe this piece by Daniel Crawford titled, A Song of Our Warming Planet, should be adopted as the task force's theme song. It is the top video link on Andrew Revkin's blog. Note that if warming continues at the present rate, by 2100 some notes will be inaudible to the human ear.

Feeding the World....while also reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Cattle release methane, and lots of it. Methane is a greenhouse gas 23 times more potent than CO2. Plus with a World population over 7 billion and still growing, we are running out of resources to feed our World.

So do we really need to eat beef, chicken and pork to get our protein? Absolutely not!!!! Look at some of the earth's largest animals - Elephants, Hippopotamus, Rhinocerus, they are all vegetarians, but still very big and strong. In the US, 13% of the population is vegetarian or vegan. In India 31%. In OLLI, I am estimating significantly more than 13%. (A more precise survey would be welcome.)

From a global perspective, it boils down to more efficiently using our limited resources, which are fertile land and fresh water. Consuming crops is far more efficient than consuming animals which have been fed crops. This is due to limited ecological efficiency in converting energy from one trophic level to another. A rough approximation is that the conversion is only 10% efficient. See Wikipedia for more details.

So what are your plant-based eating resources. In OLLI there is an excellent class, Plant Based Eating 101 taught by Dorothy Greet. On the internet, there are an almost infinite number of resources, such as Marc Gunther on Reinventing Meat, or John McDougall's web site dedicated to improving your health through plant based eating.

At the very least, take a look at the health benefits You will gain, and the benefits to the World through better utilization of limited resources, and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Sally and I both both do it.

IPCC Climate Change 2013, first report

The IPCC 2013 report on The Physical Basis for Climate Change by Working Group 1 is available, both as a complete report and as a Summary for Policymakers at the IPCC web site. I chose to review the summary, which contains key elements highlighted in tan blocks.

You may also want to review the basis for the 4 scenarios they use, known as RCPs for Representative Concentration Pathways. In a nutshell they range from RCP 2.6 which is very aggressive emissions reduction, to RCP 8.5 which is kind of "life as usual" (my definition).

Another thing to be aware of, all the figures referred to in the Summary for Policymakers can be found at the END of the report.

My perspective on the report? It adds a great deal of scientific evidence supporting the human causes of climate change observed so far, and it paints a bleak picture for the future.

Walmart and Solar

Walmart's effort is impressive, and they plan to make money doing solar. For an easy to read, and often times humorous article from Bloomberg:

Wal-Mart Now Draws More Solar Power Than 38 U.S. States

Close up photos of our sun

Respect for our Sun is without question. For an awesome NASA video see:

Canyon of Fire 

Can we capture and convert CO2 into useful plastics?

OLLI class member Tom Lord found the below links and mentioned them in our first class 10/23.

I have reviewed them, and I certainly think they represent avenues worth pursuing. The big issue with carbon capture and storage is not, can we do it?

It is, can we do it economically? If the CO2 is buried in the earth, it has no value. If the CO2 becomes an essential part of a useful plastic, then it does have some value.

Good topic for class discussion. Tom's links are:

http://energy.gov/fe/articles/recycling-carbon-dioxide-make-plastics

http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2010/July/28071001.asp

http://theenergycollective.com/dgreenblogger/189811/novomer-produces-co2-based-polyols

http://sciencenordic.com/making-plastic-out-carbon-dioxide

Lewes Roads, Homes and other Resources Prone to Flooding

Below is a partial list of roads and homes in the Lewes-Rehoboth area that are prone to flooding based on my experience. This list is for discussion in class about what some possible adaption steps might be, specifically - protection, accommodation or retreat (see Oct 13 post for more information).

Roads:
- last 3 miles of Prime Hook Road before Prime Hook Beach
- New Road at Canary Creek
- Cedar Ave on Lewes Beach
- Savannah Road north of Canal Bridge
- Route 1 north of Indian River Inlet Bridge

Homes:
- on Prime Hook Beach and Broadkill Beach
- on Dewey Beach
- on Bethany Beach and bayside

Resources:
- Prime Hook NWR
- boat docks and marinas on Lewes Canal

Lewes Tide Levels, and other weather information

Click: Tide levels at the Lewes Weather Station for a plot of recent to current tide level. You can also look up wind speed and direction, air and water temp, and barometric pressure. To view click on the Station info tab, followed by the station Home link, or click here and scroll down.

For reference, flooding begins at about 7 ft. above MLLW (Mean Lower Low Water), and serious flooding occurs at 8 ft or more above MLLW.

Top US Companies Investing Big in Solar

In the agenda for our last OLLI class Nov 20, I mention Walmart and its program to place PV cells on the roofs of its stores. I also posed the question: Is this a significant effort, or just for show? Well it would appear it is a significant effort, at least based on this report by Rhone Resch, President and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).

The information certainly looks encouraging to me.

HOME - "It's not what's gone, it's what remains that is important."

HOME is a very inspiring video on YouTube about Our Planet and how we have exploited it...... AND, how we can help save it. It is an hour an a half long, but well worth your time to watch all of it.  I do plan to show a few segments in our climate class. Most climate change segments appear after 1:00 hr.

BTW, the photography is also awesome.

Adapting to Climate Change

We most certainly will have to adapt to some degree of climate change, from rising sea levels, to rising land temperatures, to more droughts, to more monsoon rains, to more severe storms, and probably even to more GOV incompetence.

Now from the UK Guardian come some specific examples of what you and I can do:
Climate Change, a Survivors' Guide

In our class, I hope to explore further this concept of: "What Can We Do???"
because obviously, we are not going to avert global warming, and all its associated effects.

Delaware and Rising Sea Levels

Several years ago Delaware formed the Delaware Climate Change Steering Committee. In July 2012 this Committee issued a comprehensive 210 page report assessing resources of concern from rising sea levels. Sixteen resources were identified as being of high concern. These included resources such as  beaches, coastal communities, wildlife refuges, tidal marshes, the Port of Wilmington, etc.

This report is available as a downloadable pdf at Made Clear. For the referenced link, scroll down to the 5th report titled, Preparing for Tomorrow's High Tide....Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment for the State of Delaware.

The Steering Committee's next step will be to develop adaptation strategies for the resources of High Concern. Adaptation boils down to one of the following three actions:
1. Protection
2. Accomodation
3. Retreat

As time permits in our upcoming class, we will discuss possible adaption strategies for some local resources, like beaches, coastal communities, Prime Hook NWR, etc.

Climate Education in DE and MD

At Coast Day, Oct 6, 2013 in Lewes DE, I talked with U of DE Research Coordinator, Jennifer Merrill. She was at a booth explaining available education programs about climate change in DE and MD. The web site to view their on-line information is Made Clear.

On this site, they have a TEST where you can check your climate change knowledge. It has a few tricky questions, but also very good explanations about why the right answer is correct. How did Prof Bill do? I'll let you guess, and I will answer truthfully in our first class.

When Climate Change Facts Prevail......

The following 2 paragraphs from the LA Times were so encouraging, because they show that people who understand the causes of climate change, are standing up to the self-interest and unscientific deniers of man-made climate change. From the LA Times:

The Los Angeles Times has stirred a dust-up over global warming with a newly announced policy barring letters to the editor that deny the existence of man-made climate change.

“Simply put, I do my best to keep errors of fact off the letters page; when one does run, a correction is published,” said Paul Thornton, letters editor of the editorial page, in an Oct. 8 column. “Saying ‘there’s no sign humans have caused climate change’ is not stating an opinion, it’s asserting a factual inaccuracy.”  
(Last text bolded by Bill Fintel)

Now in reality, should well founded opposing opinions be edited out??? I will leave that to the LA Times editors.

The pause in global warming...Real??? and if so Why???

My sense has been that the increased heat input to Earth due to increased greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the oceans, and thus caused a temporary pause in land surface temperature rise.

And that may be correct, but here from expert climatologist Dr. Richard Muller of Berkeley, is a more detailed analysis,  A Pause, Not an End, to Warming   (click top link to NY Times article, plus also please explore Berkeley Earth, as we will be exploring it in our upcoming class).

IPCC Latest Report - Washingtpn Post Blog perspective

Five things you must know about the IPCC report, from the mouths of very smart people  is a blog post published by The Capital Weather Gang, and author Jason Samenow. I chose this article about the IPCC report because it samples the thoughts of many highly educated individuals. It also provides a nice perspective how IPCC confidence has steadily increased since their first report in 1990, that human caused emissions are the cause of observed global warming.

So now what will the World do to address carbon emissions, and the effects of inevitable climate changes???

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) - An IEEE Perspective

No question, creating enough alternative energy sources to totally replace fossil fuel sources will take a considerable time. My estimate is more than 100 years. So in the meantime, as we continue to burn fossil fuels, can we offset some of the damage by capturing the carbon released and storing it indefinitely???

Well unfortunately, the technology to do so economically has not yet been developed, and does not appear easy to develop, based on many studies and pilot plant tests. I personally have never given it a chance, but now in this IEEE article, Inside the World's Largest Carbon Capture Test Facility, I see some rays of hope.

First, on a thermodynamic "theoretically perfect basis", carbon can be captured for only an 8% cost of the energy produced by a coal fired power plant. Still, the best pilot plant experience to date is a 25% cost, and that has yet to be done commercially.

So now, I am a tad less pessimistic than I used to be, and I most certainly hope for some for some major breakthroughs.

Note: The IEEE (they like to be referred to as "I Triple E") is a very large international engineering organization. You can read much more about them on their site link above.

Predicting Climate Change - OLLI Fall 2013 Class Schedule

Instructor - Bill Fintel

In this 5 week class we will try to develop a clearer picture of the key elements of climate change, and we will explore possible future scenarios to get a better perspective of what our children and grandchildren may inherit. Class participation is encouraged, and time will be made available for class members to express their views.

Oct 23 – Recent Global Climate Data - In this first class we will review climate change indicators published by NASA, NOAA and others. This data will include surface temperature, sea level, arctic sea ice extent, ocean heat content, and more. Links to these sources can be found at: http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators and http://www.climate.gov/maps-data

Oct 30 – Sea Level Rise and Delaware - As we all realize, much of Delaware is not far above present sea level, and even in the recent past, large coastal storms have caused extensive and major damage. What can Delaware expect in the future? What are Delawareans doing, and what else should we be doing?

Nov 6 – Arctic and Antarctic Changes - Warming in the Arctic is proceeding much more rapidly than at temperate latitudes. Arctic sea ice extent is steadily decreasing year after year. Greenland glaciers are melting. Permafrost is melting. What are the global implications of these and other polar changes?

Nov 13 – Climate Feedback Loops - Climate feedback loops hold the unfortunate potential to accelerate climate change by amplifying a small change via a positive feedback mechanism. We will explore effects such as the release of methane due to melting permafrost, and a decrease in solar radiation being reflected back into space because of melting polar ice caps.

Nov 20 – Rays of Hope and Conundrums - What are some of the recent developments that give rise to hope for climate stabilization? What is the Majuro declaration? Will humans and other species be able to adapt to the inevitable remaining climate changes? Are Walmart’s efforts to use renewable energy significant or just show? How do we explain things like continuing fossil fuel subsidies, or solar panels getting cheaper and cheaper, but seemingly becoming harder and harder to justify financially?

Sea Level Rise, new research results from Antarctica

From a coastal perspective, like from Delaware, sea level rise is probably the most concerning aspect of global warming.

So what is the latest research showing? Well there is some outstanding in-depth research being done in the Antarctic. Too early to say what it predicts, but good to know that sound science is being used.

For details of the Pine Island Glacier melting rate as caused by warm waters under the glacier, see PINE ISLAND.

Thinking about sustainabilty - no words needed

Food Waste Greenhouse Gas Emmissions - 3rd Largest Emitter behind China and US

I am only posting this NBC link because the reported magnitude of the problem is so large. From what I have read, the emissions include all energy used to grow and process the wasted food, as well as the CO2 and methane emitted by the disposal of the wasted food. That seems fair, but also a complicated series of calculations.

What also seems so very unfortunate and unnecessary, is wasting this vast quantity of food with so many people on Earth needy and starving.

Bill

PS - Our class agenda for "Predicting Climate Change", Oct 23 through Nov 20 at Osher Lifelong Learning in Lewes DE, will be posted very soon. I am looking forward to an educationally stimulating and interesting fall.

The Pantanal, Brazil

It is nice to be back home, but Sally and I also had a wonderful time in the Pantanal of Brazil. The Pantanal is the largest wetland in the World....10 times the size of the Everglades. Obviously we visited only a small portion of this, but had some wonderful encounters with Hyacinth Macaws, Jaguars, and Harpy Eagles.

Now how do we reconcile all the CO2 emitted by the aircraft we flew on? We donate generously to organizations that support positive climate action, like the EDF, NRDC, TNC and Seacology. 

Colorado Strong Solar Programs

I had been considering posting some negative views about Obama's climate speech, just to keep this blog "balanced", but I have decided not to do that because the views were not a criticism of the science behind the stated US position on climate change, they were views that basically said, "well this is a hopeless battle, coal workers and coal businesses will have to pay a big penalty, so why try to do what is right?"

Well in every worthwhile undertaking, sacrifices are required. So lets look to Colorado for some inspiration. Colorado has on average 300 sunny days a year, and yet they now generate less solar power than NJ. So Colorado is going for 1 million solar roof tops by 2030. For details from see Renewable Energy World.

Predicting Climate Change - Fall 2013 OLLI Class, Lewes, DE

Course Description:

It is widely agreed that climate change is happening, but there is not much consensus among predictions, at what rate climate change will occur, and what will be all the effects of climate change. This workshop style class will explore current climate change predictions, and discuss what is predicted to happen in Delaware, as well as in the rest of the world.

Often cited effects of climate change are rising sea levels, increased storm intensity, shifting rainfall patterns, loss of arable land, ocean acidification, displacement of people and wildlife, extinction of plant and animal species, etc. Participants will be encouraged to present their ideas and findings to the rest of the class. We will have on-screen internet access to facilitate presentations.

Class dates and times to be announced

Bill Fintel     May 22, 2013 

Obama's Position on Climate Change, 6/29/13

I have been holding off posting this article to see if I came upon a better summary, but I have not, so here is what I consider a very good summary from CNN, Obama is right on climate change.

If you have been taking any of my lifelong learning classes on climate change, hopefully you will be glad to hear that I will be teaching a new 5 week class this fall at Osher Lifelong Learning in Lewes, DE. The class title is: Predicting Climate Change.

See next post for class description. Bill

US Gov Takes Concrete Steps to Expand Renewable Energy

Secretary Sally Jewell outlines on This Week at Interior an upcoming offering of offshore leases to develop wind energy which could supply electricity to 1 million homes. She also highlights some western US developments of solar and geothermal renewable energy which can supply energy needs of 200,000 homes. The video is certainly worth the 3+ minutes it takes. (Note: the renewable energy segment comes after a 1 min segment on recreational fishing, and before a segment about healthy foods to be served in National Parks).

For more details on the offshore wind farm lease, see Renewable Energy News.

The Continent-Size Canary

"Trust me, matey...it is getting hotter down under." Bill Fintel photo

Measuring global warming, if it is occurring, is a task burdened with highly variable data, and hence frequently questioned results. So through the eyes of National Geographic, lets take a look at Australia, "the continent-size Canary".

The rough-hewn sandstone buildings perched atop Observatory Hill have been keeping an eye on Sydney Harbor since 1858. They've pretty much seen it all—from the installation of the city's first gaslights to the construction of the now iconic Sydney Opera House and Harbor Bridge.

But at 2:55 p.m. on January 18, 2013, meteorological equipment in the observatory registered something new: a read-out marking the hottest day in the city's history: 45.8°C (114.4°F). (Note this link takes you to the current month, to see Jan data, select the month of Jan 2013.)

Much of the continent was languishing in the grip of a heat wave that would break 123 heat and flood-related records in 90 days—among them, the hottest summer on record and the hottest seven consecutive days ever recorded.

Now why the Canary analogy? Because of a very nice scientific phrase, called "signal to noise ratio".

The anomaly stood out. Numbers like those break through what climate scientists like David Jones, manager of climate monitoring prediction at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, call the "signal to noise" ratio.

"One of the first places on the planet where the global warming signal is easy to discern is actually Australia, because of this low temperature variability," Jones said. "And that's exactly what we're seeing. The Australian warming trend is very clearly apparent in our records. It pops out quite quickly from the background noise of weather patterns."

I think my next line of research will be to see how the Australia wine growing regions are faring.

Going Green for Our Health.... and Our Grandchildren's Future

 Lettuce and parsley in Fintel garden, May 2013, Bill Fintel photo

Salads grown locally. They make sense, and they are happening. The more greens we eat, and the less beef we eat, the better off we and our planet will be, and also the better off will be our grandchildren.

It is really very simple math. We can be very healthy eating a plant based diet...in fact much more healthy than eating a lot of plant fed animals. And we improve upon the energy conversion efficiency of taking in directly the solar energy processed by plants, instead of allowing it to pass through a second inefficient energy converting process of the cow or the chicken or pig, etc.

So who is making this all the more possible in the busy northeast? Bright Farms!

But you too can also grow and consume your own greens, or you can buy from a local organic gardener, like Hattie's Garden, and she also sells starter organic vegetable plants.

 Pirat Butterhead lettuce from Hattie, a Fintel favorite, Bill Fintel photo

Moore Oklahoma Tornadoes - Climate Change link???

I think not. Tornadoes are events which are driven by weather patterns...like warm moist air from the Gulf interacts with cool air from the NW. And it has happened many, many times over Oklahoma, and no doubt it will happen many more times...and perhaps the intensity will increase....but forecasters also say the frequency will probably decrease.

OK,  I do not have a degree in climate science, but I hope I just have enough science background and common sense to assess the evolving climate situation...and provide you with some informative links:

From Andrew Revkin: A Survival Plan for America's Tornado  Danger Zone

And from NASA Earth Observatory: Moore Oklahoma from satellite May 20

And if you want to contribute to Moore's recovery, here are recs from Charity Navigator.

Tornadoes...and Hurricanes, can be SO devastating, we should pay more attention to our options for protecting lives and property. That is something we can do more or less short term.

What's New???... 400 ppm CO2, and an aggresive approach to combat it

So 350.org just became 350.400 org

The leaders are very aggressive, and they are also very strong and knowledgeable leaders, Bill McKibben and James Hansen. However, they and all of us, face huge barriers from fossil fuel companies, reluctant governments, and apathetic populations.

How will this all play out for our grandchildren and beyond???

In my opinion, prospects are presently not good.

Bill

Earth Day 2013 - A Message from DE Senator Carper

Earth Day 2013 is largely focused on Climate Change, but also very justifiably on reductions in air and water pollution since the first Earth Day in 1970.

Today, we have an excellent perspective on Earth Day from Senator Carper .

US Cities Underwater - a dramatic visual simulation

I found an msnNOW article titled: "See Underwater Cities Climate Change Could Create". My visual image was of cities we start building underwater to adapt to rising sea levels. Wrong! My visual may still be a good idea, but it was the wrong visual for this msn article. The images in it are very effective creations by artist Nikolay Lamm.

What can WE do to fight global warming?

The WE in the title is for us, on a personal level. So WE can:
- Install a solar photovoltaic (PV) system on our roof.
- Install a solar water heater on our roof.
- Install a geothermal heat pump.
Now these are all choices that benefit us directly, and the rest of the world indirectly by limiting our generation of greenhouse gases.

But how about donating to organizations that use solar PV or equivalent to provide electricity to remote off-grid people who desperately need electricity, if only for illumination for kids to study at night. I truly believe that smarter kids will most definitely benefit our World.

So that is where I plan to target my dollar support efforts. I will let you know what avenues I find that seem to be most reliable to achieve that goal. And please let me know if you are aware of other good avenues.

Carbon Capture Breakthrough? Just might be!

Carbon Capture, more specifically CO2 capture, at coal fired power plants has the appeal of reducing CO2 emissions while still enabling us to use our most abundant fossil fuel resource, coal. However, capturing CO2 from current power plant flue gas is very costly because it is so diluted with nitrogen.

The potential CCS breakthrough involves oxidizing coal to release its stored energy using other sources of oxygen than air, so the dilution-with-nitrogen problem is eliminated. Other sources of oxygen can be iron oxide, or water.

Pulverized coal, mixed with iron oxide and heated to 1,650 deg F will react to form mostly CO2 and iron. The CO2 is very pure, approximately 99.5% after any water vapor has been condensed out, and thus the CO2 is ready for sequestration. The iron is then burned back to iron oxide using air as a source of oxygen, and it releases the energy originally from the coal to create steam and run a generator. The iron oxide thus formed is then recycled or "looped" back in the process.

Ohio State is the pioneer in this technology, known as Coal-Direct Chemical Looping (CDCL). The option using oxygen from water is known as Syngas Chemical Looping (SCL). Both are described in Midwest Energy News.

My view? I am optimistic! It is very revolutionary technology for power production, but it is very well known technology. The World's coal resources are vast, so where solar and wind generating potential are limited, it could become a valuable resource to help save our Earth, more or less as we know it, for future generations.

Retreating Glaciers

Following is a link to a short portion of the movie "Chasing Ice". I have seen the entire movie, and whether you have or haven't, I still encourage you to watch this short LINK.

Plants as Temperature Sensors

Okay, thermometers as sensors of global temperature have many deficiencies. They are not deployed widely enough to adequately average in regional variations, such as over the oceans (70% of the Earth's surface area). They also have a questionable input relative to "large city heat effects".

So what could be better? Well, if you have been following this blog, you know I favor sea level rise sensors. As the Earth warms, land based ice melts and sea levels rise. And yes, sea levels are rising. For all my sea level blog posts, or for just NOAA Data (and scroll down to sea level data).

BUT on to plants, millions and millions of them, all across the sparsely inhabited high latitudes of our northern hemisphere. How are they doing? In a nutshell, they are mostly prospering through warmer temperatures, and more rain fall. Just take a look at this latest NASA release.

Now for a NY Times blog post by Andrew Revkin, a concerned climate news reporter whom I admire a great deal. I would say he takes a more optimistic approach to the new NASA study by looking at plants adapting...and I hope he is right.

CCS - Carbon Capture and Sequestration

No, this is not about the current US Government spending sequestration program (which is explained HERE).

It is about capturing CO2 and storing it away somewhere, for a VERY long period of time. Coal fired power plants are the first obvious targets. Their flue gas is primarily nitrogen, water vapor, and large amounts of CO2. So the CO2 is far more concentrated than after the flue gas mixes with the atmosphere. Thermodynamics defines the energy required to "capture" CO2, either from flue gas or from the atmosphere. As you might expect, the theoretical energy (read cost) required is less for capturing CO2 from flue gas, where it is concentrated, compared to capturing it from the atmosphere, where it is very dilute.

Want to investigate further? Read Cory Simon's blog post on Scientific American. From that post we find that: "Capture technologies at present are estimated to cost 25-30% of a plant’s power output, driving up the price of electricity by around 80%........  the minimum theoretical energy.......  turns out to be ~5% of the output of the coal power plant, suggesting that there is room for improvement in current carbon capture technologies."

In Canada, how are things going to keep the politics of shale oil on a better environmental footing? Not so good relative to Canada's CCS plans, which have been very aggressive up to recently.

There are still many high level research programs going on, so maybe a breakthrough is possible to get us much nearer to the %5 of output theoretical limit. For instance, some novel organic-inorganic CO2 sponges.
 

Water Resources and Climate Change

According to most climate predictions, as the Earth warms, dry regions will get drier, and wet regions will get wetter. Looking at dry regions, like the Middle East, this poses many significant problems, such as how to manage limited fresh water resources so they do not run out, and so they are not overused by any one country.

A pair of satellites that are very sensitive to the Earth's gravity has proven capable of measuring the amount of water contained in underground aquifers. This satellite technology is known as Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment, or GRACE. For a very clear concise summary of the issues which can addressed with this technology, see Andrew Revkin's Dot Earth blog post.

Obviously, fair and conservative utilization of fresh water resources will play a significant role in stability in the Middle East.

Intriguing Solar Option for Individuals

Californians again lead the way. Want solar, but not to sure how to go about it, and scared of the initial investment and later maintenance. The California link provides many options in CA, and now where you live, this approach should soon work as well.

The World Bank and Climate Change

The World Bank is taking action to help our world cope with climate change, and they also have some very good beliefs on what governments should be doing as well. For instance:

The world’s top priority must be to get finance flowing and get prices right on all aspects of energy costs to support low-carbon growth. Achieving a predictable price on carbon that accurately reflects real environmental costs is key to delivering emission reductions at scale. Correct energy pricing can also provide incentives for investments in energy efficiency and cleaner energy technologies.

A second immediate step is to end harmful fuel subsidies globally, which could lead to a 5 percent fall in emissions by 2020. Countries spend more than $500 billion annually in fossil-fuel subsidies and an additional $500 billion in other subsidies, often related to agriculture and water, that are, ultimately, environmentally harmful. That trillion dollars could be put to better use for the jobs of the future, social safety nets or vaccines. 

Coming up next, what we individuals can do to minimize carbon emissions.

Recommendations to Obama on Climate Action

From CNN:

Melinda Pierce, legislative director for the Sierra Club, pushed the president to focus more on executive orders and regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency than on legislation.

"Congress is a place where good ideas go to die," she said. "There is a tremendous amount that his administration can do without Congress. He has the authority; he doesn't have to wait for Congress."

Eric Pooley, senior vice president of the Environmental Defense Fund, told CNN that while "serious climate legislation isn't in the cards this year" the White House understands that congressional "legislation is not the only way to make progress."

Obviously I too agree, or I would not have posted the above. Bill

What does the latest data show?

I am a scientist, albeit not trained as a climate scientist, but trained to review data and its interpretation very carefully. In my humble opinion, the following is some very good and revealing data. First, from Berkeley Earth, view some graphs of global temperature history which, of most significance to me, show the Earth has warmed 0.9 deg C (1.6 °F) in the past 50 years.

Next, see what has happened recently to surface and groundwater levels in the US at NASA Earth Observatory:

My conclusions? The same as most unbiased scientists; the Earth is warming at a significant rate, and predicted changes in weather patterns are causing serious water supply consequences. Is the change driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions? My view is YES, and that the science supports that conclusion with 97+% certainty.

The President on Climate Change, Jan 21, 2013

From Barack Obama's inaugural speech today:

We, the people, still believe that our obligations as Americans are not just to ourselves, but to all posterity. We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.

Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms. The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist this transition. We must lead it.

I look forward to action backing this pledge, and I hope we have broad support by both parties in Congress.

World Energy Production Details - Germany

What you will not find much of on this blog is what you can find everywhere else in the news as well. So this link to a Mark Lynas post I think you will find unique, and I hope you agree with me, it contains some very interesting nuggets of information about energy production in Germany, such as:

Solar continued its enormous growth rate between 2011 and 2012. Production rose from 19.3TWh (terawatt-hours) in 2011 to 27.6TWh in 2012, representing an impressive increase of 47.7%. In terms of total electricity generation, solar’s percentage rose from 3.2% in 2011 to 4.6% in 2012. This is an extraordinary achievement by any standard.

Because gas prices remain high in Europe relative to coal, gas is being forced out of the electricity market – and with widespread opposition to fracking, there is little prospect of cheapear gas (as in the US) for the forseeable future.

An excellent summary, but for just one country. Now do it for 200+ countries in the World, integrate all that data, and use it to plan the future of world energy production. A daunting task!!!!

MIT Letter to Obama on Climate Change

From MIT, comes a very forceful message to President Obama about climate change. The Washington Examiner has a concise summary just published. From their article:

"You have the power and the opportunity to lay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change," said the letter, published in the MIT Technology Review. "It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four years, it will be too late."

Killer Whales (Orcas), Climate Change, and Politics

Yes there is a link between the three. First, in case you have not seen the video of Orcas trapped by ice in the Hudson Bay, managing to breathe from a relatively small hole in the ice, I believe you will find it amazing.

Scientists involved propose that the event may have been brought on by climate change. Okay, that may seem like a stretch to say for any one event, but the logic is as reasonable as blaming an increase in severe storms on climate change, as has been repeatedly done in the past few years. 

So where does politics enter in? It enters with the Orcas cooperative behavior. Fortunately for them, there was not a Democrat or Republican amongst them. From the observers:
“It’s amazing to see how they managed to find a strategy to share that little space and organize who’s going to breathe and when, because they all needed to breathe every five minutes and they found the strategy for the survival of the group and not the survival of the strongest.”

Lets work together on climate change

I apologize for my month long silence. I have been away visiting family. Good news is, all is well.

Now back and as I get caught up on climate change, the most significant of what I have read is about working together. Be sure to watch the video. The principals are so elementary.

More soon.
Bill