Saturday, July 9, 2011

New Study on Sea Level Rise - Gloomier than ever

The linked study led by the University of Arizona predicts sea levels could rise by as much as a meter by 2100. This "would be enough to flood 90 percent of New Orleans, 33 percent of Virginia Beach, Va., and 18 percent of Miami, according to scientists."

The UA research focused on warmer oceans leading to faster glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica. They also point out that at some point the melting becomes irreversible, even if we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically (which is unlikely to happen any time soon).

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Burning more coal slows down global warming

The title does not seem to match today's science, but read the link and you will see it has a plausible scientific basis. In a nutshell, China doubled its coal burning from 2002 to 2007, and this has been in low tech coal fired power plants which emitted lots of sulfate aerosols. These in turn have reflected back into space a significant portion of the sun's energy. The net result is that the Earth's temperature has increased very little in the last decade.

Now the Chinese do know sulfate aerosols are harmful to people and the environment, so they are working to clean up their power plants. Unfortunately the increased CO2 emitted by these plants will remain in the atmosphere for decades, so when the sulfate aerosol emissions are reduced, global warming will most likely rebound.

The article also points to a role of El Nino in transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. A strong El Nino in 1998 made for a hot year, which then affects how subsequent years are perceived in terms of warming trends.

GREENLAND - Will probably be the focus of near term sea level rise

Greenland is almost all covered by a very thick glacial ice cap. If all of Greenland's ice either melted or slid into the oceans, sea le...