The Parable of the Sower

Irrespective of whether climate change this century results in additional Earth warming or cooling, and to what extent, the human population of this planet will have increased to 9 billion people. Shortages of food, energy, and potable water will be more and more critical issues and need to be addressed NOW -- if mankind is to avoid serious crisis that could otherwise lead to mass migration, starvation, and even wars.

The advantages of genetically modified seeds is becoming more apparent. Monsanto has been an innovator in this field: identifying genetic traits with particular qualities and transplanting these traits into seeds to improve their performance. The biggest breakthrough so far has been in weed and bug control. Some plants have been bioengineered to deter pests from eating their leaves and roots, reducing or even eliminating the need for insecticides. Drought tolerent products are expected to be available in about three years.

Think of the benefit to humanity this will result in. The attached link leads you to the article published in the November 21st Economist, "The Parable of the Sower."

More on 'Climate-Gate' from the WSJ

Concerning the leaked emails of prominent climate scientists (Penn State's Michael Mann et al):

"A more thoughtful response to the emails comes from Mike Hulme, another climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, as reported by a New York Times blogger:

".............. It is possible that climate science has become too partisan, too centralized. The tribalism that some of the leaked emails display is something more usually associated with social organization within primitive cultures; it is not attractive when we find it at work inside science."

The response from the defenders of Mr. Mann and his circle has been that even if they did disparage doubters and exclude contrary points of view, theirs is still the best climate science. The proof for this is circular. It's the best, we're told, because it's the most-published and most-cited—in that same peer-reviewed literature. The public has every reason to ask why they felt the need to rig the game if their science is as indisputable as they claim."

Resurgence in El Nino

A late fall, 2009, resurgence of El Nino is shown graphically on the attached link to the NASA Earth Obsevatory WEB site, A strong wave of warm water has spread from the western Pacific eastward as revealed from the satellite "Jason" which continuously monitors sea level height. This affects global climate conditions as discussed in class.

Unethical Behavior - 'Climate-gate'

This link to FoxNews contain many quotes from the hacked documents of prominent climate researchers. Even as a believer that global warming is taking place, I certainly find many of the quotes presented as sound examples of unethical behavior. The following quote sums up the suppression of skeptical views:

"Other emails refer to efforts to exclude contrary views from publication in scientific journals. Pat Michaels, a climate scientist at the Cato Institute, told The Wall Street Journal: "This is what everyone feared. Over the years, it has become increasingly difficult for anyone who does not view global warming as an end-of-the-world issue to publish papers. This isn't questionable practice, this is unethical."" (bold type by me). Bill

El Nino

A surge in the west to east Pacific Ocean current called El Nino is expected to offer relief to the drought condition that has plagued the southwest. The link will take you to the NASA release that describes this condition.

Laser Fusion at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory

Laser fusion, also known as Inertial Confinement Fusion, uses extremely powerful lasers to heat and compress a deuterium/tritium fuel pellet to a temperature and density where fusion will take place. It has been studied since the 70's. One of the main problems has been making powerful-enough lasers. The other challenge has been the accuracy with which the laser beams must impact the fuel pellet. If the impact is not perfect, the pellet does not implode precisely enough to achieve the needed density for fusion.

In the linked Newsweek article, Edward Moses, head scientist at the National Ignition Facility, or NIF, portion of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, believes they have overcome these problems and will demonstrate productive laser fusion (more energy out than in) some time in the next year.

U of Del Atlantic Coast Wind Study

The above link is to a report in Energy Central, a portion of which is quoted as follows:

"Willett M. Kempton, a professor at the University of Delaware, told the audience at the eighth annual Ronald C. Baird Sea Grant Science Symposium that a study he and his colleagues conducted using a decade of satellite data and information collected from federal meteorological buoys shows that annual offshore wind resources in the region amounted to 330 gigawatts or nearly five times the estimated energy use in nine coastal states including Rhode Island."

Another interesting wind energy article was in Environmental Leader (Energy and Environmenta News for Business). A portion states: "NRG told MarketWatch that Bluewater’s 450-MW offshore wind project off Delaware’s coast could start producing electricity by late 2013 or early 2014."

Fusion energy producing devices

The above link is to the sustainable energy page of the finbliz web site, which now contains summary information and links to ITER, Focus Fusion, and Z-pinch sites. IF one of these concepts can be made to work on a large and economical scale, then truly the world will never run out of energy.

My assessment? ITER's large Tokamak plasma containment device will work, but because of its huge size, complexity and costs, will it ever do so economically? Focus Fusion's "Dense Plasma Focus" device almost seems "to good to be true", but its compact low-investment machine is certainly good from an economic perspective. Z-pinch at present can not fire repeated pulses, so this issue needs to be solved. Would I keep working on these concepts? Most definitely yes, as the stake is monumental. Bill

Patagonia Glaciers first-hand

This link takes you to some of the photos I took while Sally and I were in the Patagonia region of Argentina. A few of these were presented in class, but if you wish to view some more, or show to friends, go to the above link.  Best, Bill

Glaciel melting in Bhutan

OK, I promised you that this blog would have some unique material, well this link is about hand excavation of glacial moraines in an attempt to avert catastrophic floods if any of the moraine dams holding back the rising glacial lakes burst. Such an event is known as a Glof, for glacial lake outburst flood, and past Glofs have caused widespread destruction and fatalities.

For those of you still skeptical about global warming taking place, at least here in the Himalayas, there is abundant evidence of warming and resultant glacial melting. From a detailed article about the same subject in the 21 October 2009 issue of Nature: "Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating faster than in any other part of the world and they could disappear completely by 2035". I hope to be able to give you a first hand report next May. The following image is from the Bhutan Observer.

Sailing the Northwest Passage

You can follow a 13 month sailing voyage around the Americas aboard the "Ocean Watch," a 64-foot steel cutter-rigged sloop. Their mission is to build awareness about ocean health on an international scale. It has been estimated that in about 30 years there may be ice-free summers in the Arctic waters, enabling shortened passage between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

Latest & Best Desert Solar Thermal

This link goes to BrightSource Energy's web site, which provides an excellent explanation and very clear graphics of the technology involved. Basically thousands of large flat mirrors focus the sun's energy on a boiler to generate 550 deg C high pressure steam. This steam is then used to drive conventional steam turbines coupled to electric generators. It appears that one unique aspect of the BrightSource technology is the computer control for the thousands of mirrors to keep each one tracking the sun and directing the reflected light onto the boiler.

Also, it looks like once again, California has taken the lead in the US. As of September 2009, the California Public Utilities Commission had approved 1,310 megawatts of contracts between BrightSource and PG&E (Pacific Gas and Electric).

The bike riding vegan scientist who....

This is a fun read about why babies matter a lot, for lots of reasons, including global warming. And it certainly recalls David MacKay's approach of looking at emissions on a PER PERSON basis.

Drought in Africa since 2008

Droughts in Africa are often mentioned as one possible outcome of global warming. With modern satellites and their sophisticated instrumentation, it now appears possible to measure such happenings almost in real time.

Since we are at NASA Earth Observatory, you might also wish to check human induced global cooling smoke and haze over India.