Our Oceans and CO2 Emissions

I love our oceans, and I venture forth on them and under them a lot. So if these articles are corrct, what I love will be diminished in sea life and resources for my grandchildren. But more importantly, it will be diminished for all who depend on the oceans for food and jobs.

From ars/technica with lots of embedded links.

Your Pteropod,
Bill

Rising Sea Level - What could disappear

What Could Disappear from the NY Times is an interactive graphic that displays how rising seas could impact 22 major US cities, plus Long Island and the NJ coast. Note that the link opens with a 25 ft sea level rise set on the slider, and that is clearly a disastrous situation. However, many urban areas are impacted in a major way with only a 5 ft sea level rise.

For a detailed look at the sources of future sea level rise, and the effect on Delaware, see Sea Level Rise and Its Effect on Delaware from UD and Sea Level Rise Inundation Maps from DNREC.

University of Delaware Wind Power Programs

Today we had an outstanding presentation by Professor Jeremy Firestone from the University of Delaware (UDEL). His talk was too detailed to present here, but he did provide the following links to stay up to date on wind energy programs at UDEL, most of which are run through the College of Earth, Ocean and Environment (CEOE).

Home page of the CEOE

Lewes Turbine page of CEOE

Grid sized batteries - New technology from MIT

Why do we need grid sized batteries? To store intermittent wind and solar energy, so that when the winds don't blow, or it is nighttime, these huge electrical storage devices, can supply electricity to the grid saved from times when the wind was blowing, or the sun was shining.

This is a must watch link on TED pointed out to me by Bo French in our class. It is not just about an apparent great invention, it is also about people truly dedicating themselves to saving our world, and many of these people are inspired young students.
Thanks so much, Bo.

Tax Carbon??? Do you have another way to...

..... have the World input the real costs of burning high-carbon fossil fuels? I don't!
See To Slow Warming, Tax Carbon, a NY Times Opinion Page by Dieter Helm.

It is so logical, but it requires World cooperation. Can we make it happen? My opinion? Not as long as we fight so bitterly from US elections, to terrorism, to almost killing off the great whales, and on and on......

I believe the next long step will be for more and more people to love our planet, and love every living thing on it. At some point, future generations will see this, but by then it may be too late. So can enough of us do it NOW?

Chasing Ice - an excellent climate change film

Sally and I just saw Chasing Ice at the Rehoboth Beach Film Festival. It conveys a very important message about climate change, and the photography is awesome. We heartily recommend it.

It will be shown again this Sat night at 9:25 pm, and probably also as an audience favorite some time this coming Sat or Sun. See Rehoboth Film for more details.

Energy for Development - References from Curt Davis

Following is the list of books, web site links, and Youtube videos that Curt promised in his OLLI presentation on Nov 5, 2012. Many thanks again to Curt for a fascinating and informative presentation of his hands-on experiences helping provide clean, renewable energy to low income people in remote regions around the world.  Bill

OLLI Energy for Development presentation by Curt Davis, November 5, 2012

-Here are the names of the books mentioned in class:

Kamal, Sajed (2011). The Renewable Revolution: How We Can Fight Climate Change, Prevent Energy Wars, Revitalize the Economy and Transition to a Sustainable Future. London: Routledge (Earthscan)

Owen, David (2012). The Conundrum: How Scientific Innovation, Increased Efficiency, and Good Intentions Can Make Our Energy and Climate Problems Worse. Short Books

-Here is a link to how to build the solar cooker demonstrated in class:

http://solarcooking.wikia.com/wiki/CooKit

-Organizations that I work with:

Flexera Solar and Wind

http://www.flexera.net/

The Pan Himalayan Grassroots Development Foundation

http://www.grassrootsindia.com/

Grupo Fenix

http://www.grupofenix.org/

ICSEE / Maasai Solar Project

http://www.maasaistovessolar.org/

-Here is a list of interesting videos of small-scale renewable energy or small-scale that has been scaled up to meet larger demands.

Solar Cooker in the snow: (2:45)

(posted from http://www.youtube.com/user/solarwindmama)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddd8RUtv9VU&feature=plcp

Grassroots India household biogas overview. (8:03)

(posted by https://www.youtube.com/user/GrassrootsIndia)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQrr4KhP4Dc

Micro Hydro Power Animation

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/GreenpeaceUK)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S4B2gODY3Mk

Micro hydro Archimedian screw animation

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/bigbrother1970E)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLEA3FF83DC8D9FCA0&feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=ka5174hVhbg

Turning Green in Oxford, England

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/alunhill)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1Q1-iAExPo&feature=rellist&playnext=1&list=PLEA3FF83DC8D9FCA0

Micro hydro in Indonesia

(poster by http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xm-PaJNlRp8&feature=plcp

ARTI India: Biogas from food waste. (5:26)

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGSl72xZHNk&feature=relmfu

China; domestic biogas for cooking and light. (4:47)

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=ZMreH1YUs90

Industrial-scale liquefied biogas in Sweden. (4:07)

(posted by: https://www.youtube.com/user/Goteborgenergi )

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Vsk6AnilIfs

Husk Power Systems: Bihar (5:53)

(posted from http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0XcoeqVoaI

Grupo Fenix. (6:35)

(posted by https://www.youtube.com/user/elgrupofenix)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54ILxrFVc34

Tanzanian sawdust stoves. (5:53)

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIlOamR9wAg&feature=plcp

Aprovecho Rocket Stove; Malawi (5:15)

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/AshdenAwards)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSQOIVKgWbY&feature=plcp

Rice husk gasifier in Bihar (2:56)

(posted by http://www.youtube.com/user/acumenfund)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MpTmckocYQ

Sandy and climate change...is there a connection?

This question is receiving lots of press lately, and the best one word answer I have, is "probably".

Without going into why, let me refer you to this NY Times article pointed out by class member John Hoyt. The title of the article is Will Climate Change Get Some Respect Now? by Nicholas Kristoff.

Energy for Development: Lessons from energy-poor communities around the world

Curt Davis and Solar Cooker

This presentation will provide an overview of effective solar cookers, biogas digesters and improved cookstoves as well as alternative energy options for electricity that have proven effective for off-grid living around the world. It will also include photos and explanations from Curts' travels in addition to several short high-quality video clips of successful international projects.

Curt Davis is an international development professional and current graduate student at the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy at the University of Delaware. Curt has lived off the grid for over 2 years as a Peace Corps volunteer serving in rural Paraguay and has interned with a small non-governmental organization (NGO) in the Indian Himalayas. While earning a master's degree in Sustainable International Development at Brandeis University, Curt built relationships with NGOs in Latin America, Asia and Africa that are committed to providing reliable sustainable energy, empowering local stakeholders while at the same time providing positive externalities, such as the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

While in India Curt devoted his research to the development of alternative energy options to the traditional three-stone fire used commonly throughout energy-poor regions of the world. It was through these experiences that he became familiar with solar cookers and biogas digesters used for cooking.

Offshore Wind Program, Nov 19, 2012

Our program with guest speaker Professor Jeremy Firestone from the University of Delaware College of Earth, Ocean and the Environment, originally scheduled for Oct 29, has been moved to Nov 19 because of Hurricane Sandy. Time 9 am.

 

"Professor Firestone will provide background information on the offshore wind power resource and the wind power technology before examining the near-term (by 2020) prospects for offshore wind power in the United States, with emphasis on the Atlantic coast.  He will discuss market and nonmarket (social, environmental and regulatory) barriers to and opportunities for offshore wind."

Interior Announces Commercial Lease for Renewable Energy Offshore Delaware

Historic for Delaware, the US, and perhaps for the World, here is the first part of today's press release:

WASHINGTON —As part of the Obama Administration’s all-of-the-above strategy to expand safe and responsible domestic energy production, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) Director Tommy P. Beaudreau today announced that BOEM has reached agreement on a lease for commercial wind energy development in federal waters that covers 96,430 acres approximately 11 nautical miles off the coast of Delaware.

“Delaware has remarkable offshore wind potential, and harnessing this clean, domestic energy resource will create jobs, increase our energy security and strengthen our nation’s economic competitiveness,” said Salazar.

Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

If all fits in our next Monday class schedule, we'll be wrapping up with this topic. So if you want to be prepared with some 2012 summary information, visit Ezra Klein's Wonkblog on the Washington Post.

Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, CCS is going very slowly.

DSIRE - Database for State Renewables and Efficiency

Bob Seamans' freestanding PV system in Ocean View, as described in class on Oct 15.

Incentives for DE includes information on SREC's.

"As of August 2012, sales of Delaware-sourced SRECs tracked on the PJM-EIS Generation Attributes Tracking System (GATS) averaged $189 per MWh, down from $260 MWh average for June 2010-August 2011."

This sounds different from what I heard in our last class, so maybe someone can add some up-to-date details. Thanks to Keith Kiernan for providing the Wall Street Journal article with these links, and to Brandon Case for the photo of his father-in-law's PV system.

Solar estimator

Find-Solar.org is a free public service of the solar and wind communities with the mission of helping others estimate their energy cost savings when installing solar and wind systems. In trying it for Lewes, DE, the results almost seem too good to be true, like a 6 year breakeven. See what you think, and be sure to check out the many links, including Solar Pro recommended installers.

And if you want to understand Solar Renewable Energy Certificates (SREC's) so you can explain them to our class, go to SRECTrade, where there is also a Delaware page.

Utility-scale Solar Energy on Public Lands

Just in from the US Dept of the Interior: Obama Administration Approves Roadmap for Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development on Public Lands.

Today’s action builds on the Administration’s historic progress to facilitate renewable energy development....“Energy from sources like wind and solar have doubled since the President took office, and with today’s milestone, we are laying a sustainable foundation to keep expanding our nation’s domestic energy resources,” said Secretary Salazar, who signed today’s Record of Decision at an event in Las Vegas, Nevada with Senator Harry Reid. “This historic initiative provides a roadmap for landscape-level planning that will lead to faster, smarter utility-scale solar development on public lands and reflects President Obama’s commitment to grow American made energy and create jobs.” 

Okay, there may some politics involved in the announcement timing, but my initial interpretation is this is a good step forward. For the full press release click here and select the top link.

 MSNBC link published 10/12/12 at 4:59 pm.

Sustainable Energy class schedule, fall 2012

Sustainable Energy – can we make it happen?

OLLI Fall 2012, 9:00 to 10:30 am

Instructor: Bill Fintel

Oct 15 – David MacKay’s book, Sustainable Energy – without the hot air, Part 1. Comparing energy consumption with the maximum foreseeable energy generation from renewable sources, like wind, solar, waves, tide, biofuels, hydroelectric, and geothermal.

Oct 22 – Sustainable Energy, Chapter 27, “Five Energy Plans for Britain”. Discussion is encouraged in this class, because there is no obvious good combination of renewable approaches. Near the end of this class we will select a topic or topics for our last class on Nov 19.

Oct 29 – Guest speaker, Professor Jeremy Firestone from the U of Delaware. Dr. Firestone will discuss wind energy potential, research activities with the U of DE wind turbine, and studies on wildlife impacts of wind turbines. A complete description of his presentation and background will be posted on this blog.

Nov 5 – Guest speaker Curt Davis, a grad student at the U of Delaware. Curt will describe some of his fascinating work building cookstoves and documenting biogas generators for cooking in India and Nicaragua, and he will give his forward looking views on how this technology should be expanded. A complete description of his presentation and background will be posted on this blog.

Nov 12 – No class. School closed for Veterans Day.

Nov 19 – Topic or topics selected by class on Oct 22.

Eating to help save the world

I am jumping ahead on this class topic, but I thought you would like to be updated now, and in a very clear way, on how the foods we eat are grown AND LABELLED.

My view? Accurate labeling is only being honest. Why would an honest business not want to be truthful about what is in its products? 

PS - I also believe eating more plants, plus animals low on the food chain, is a key ingredient to our Earth being able to sustain the population here now and on the way.

David MacKay's Blog

So much great stuff here...ok some rather technical, but just pick and choose, and be amazed.
David's Blog

Sustainable Energy - Can We Mke It Happen

This is a reminder that our first class meets Oct 15, at 9 am in Lewes. From the catalog:

"This workshop style class will address: “Can we supply the World’s energy needs in a sustainable way... one key aspect being zero net carbon emissions?” A primary reference will be David MacKay’s book, Sustainable Energy - without the hot air. In this book MacKay does the math (so we don’t have to) in addressing the feasibility of our many sustainable energy options. MacKay’s book is free on-line at http://www.withouthotair.com/ .  We will also stay tuned to recent activities in areas such as solar, wind, geothermal, biofuels, etc. See this blog for an ongoing review of sustainable energy technology, and related topics."

I am very much looking forward to your thoughts and ideas. At the first class I will hand out a schedule of upcoming specific class topics. Bill

Nuclear Power in the US - Scary Scenarios

When we think of nuclear power's potential bad outcomes, I at least, have mostly thought about problems with operating nuclear power generating plants, like a tidal wave, or an earthquake, or an operator error, or an equipment failure with inadequate safeguards.

But now I read that the spent fuel storage issues could be the most serious threats, and they will not go away for decades, even if we shut down currently operating nuclear plants. For the scary details, visit Forbes, "Nuclear Power's Long and Toxic Tail".

Bill Clinton and Solar Power

I am just going to publish a link here, so you can followup as you wish. It is refreshing to see such a politically well recognized figure supporting renewable energy. Visit Solar Power International 12 and see Sept 12.

Wave power scheduled to go on grid in US

From the NY Times, Project Aims to Harness the Power of Waves, a large wave power buoy will be installed off the coast of Oregon this October, and will be the first wave powered generator connected to an electrical grid. The Federal Permit allows for 10 wave generators, enough to power about 1,000 homes.

Wave power has been researched for many years, and a variety of designs have been tested. This buoy by Ocean Power Technologies of NJ is a large version of autonomous power buoys they have built and deployed for several years to power remote ocean going devices.

Wave energy is really an accumulation of wind energy, and in certain parts of the world, like Oregon, is a very consistent form of sustainable energy. One of the big challenges is designing the installation to survive major storms.

Thanks to John Hoyt for pointing out this article.

Increased solar activity

Keith Kiernan put me onto this recent news, so I researched it and selected the Space.com story from Aug 24. The 40 sec video comparing side by side outbursts  of the sun in Aug 2009 and Aug 2012 is impressive. This increased solar activity is more of a concern for hi-tech electronics on Earth, like GPS, satellite communications, the internet, power grids, etc., than it is for global warming.

July hottest month ever in US, 4th globally

From NOAA Climate Watch Magazine

According to the latest statistics from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6°F, which is 3.3°F above the 20th-century average. This marks the warmest July and–given that July is the typically the warmest month of the year—the warmest month on record for the nation.

 And from NOAA National Climatic Data Center

The globally-averaged temperature for July 2012 marked the fourth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880. July 2012 also marks the 36^th consecutive July and 329^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average.

Kite Wind Power

Do you wonder what the title refers to? I initially thought my reference article, The Power Above: Kite Power Seeks High Altitude Power, was going to describe assisted propulsion for ships, as I have read that this being developed.....But No, kite wind power is a unique, and new to me, concept of generating electrical power.

The potential is amazing! Just a few short quotes hopefully will entice you to read the whole article:

Higher altitude winds blow more constantly than those at ground level. According to Ippolito, the winds he’s targeting are available for 6,000 hours a year, compared to what he says can average 1,500 hours for conventional ground wind turbines.

And any increase in wind speed yields an even greater increase in wind power, as wind power is the cube of its speed so even small increases in speed can lead to big boosts in power. If wind is streaming at 20 mph on the ground while traveling double that, or 40 mph, at 3,000 feet, its power at altitude would be 8 times the power on ground.

And for the wind equivalent of nuclear fusion, harness jet stream energy:

“It’s the highest energy density of renewable power source available on Earth,” says climate scientist Ken Caldeira at the Carnegie Institution for Science at Stanford University. He notes that the raw power of the jet stream can reach 30,000 watts per square meter and can typically be 10,000 watts per square meter, compared to an average of 300 watts per square meters for solar on the Earth’s surface.

This kind of thinking gives me hope for Earth and mankind......IF we can also more effectively deal with all our other major problems, like population growth, destruction of habitat, insufficient jobs, terrorism, inhumane treatment of others, etc.

The roles of wind and natural gas in US energy

On Ezra Klein's Wonkblog in the Washington Post, Brad Plummer writes, The rise-and possible fall-of wind power, a very concise summary of wind power growth in the US, and a cautious prediction of reduced future growth due to incentives being eliminated.

Also from Wonkblog Brad Plummer presents an excellent summary of how cheap natural gas is displacing coal for electricity generation, which in turn is reducing CO2 emissions, BUT is not necessarily reducing global warming significantly. Why? Two main reasons - one, natural gas production releases methane to the atmosphere, and methane is 23 times more potent as a greenhouse gas, and two, cheap electricity from natural gas reduces incentives to convert to wind, solar and other forms of renewable power generation.

Sea-level rise a coastal concern

This News Journal article, Part 1, paints a grim picture for large areas of Delaware and Maryland. Unfortunately, effective responses are not envisioned without the expenditure of very large sums of money, and even then major losses will still occur. From the News Journal:

Eleven of the state’s largest environmental groups already have drafted a joint statement supporting DNREC’s soon-to-be-released sea-level vulnerability findings, citing dramatic potential losses to the state’s economy and ecosystems. The draft statement includes a call for residents to encourage state and local government attention to the issue.

O’Mara said communities along Delaware’s coast and bays are “very special places. But at the same time, if we’re going to invest resources from all taxpayers, we need to make sure there is a public benefit.”

Delaware Schools to Teach Climate Change

Whoa! My jaw dropped to the floor. What an eye opening headline. See for yourself: From the Baltimore Sun, and from the Washington Post.

My favorite quote is from The Baltimore Sun article: "We need to address this issue before we witness parts of the Inner Harbor and the Eastern Shore go underwater."

US Seafood Deficit

As an avid fisherman, this concept caught my interest. Per the article, Deep Sea Farming by Marc Guenther, the US has a 10.4 billion dollar seafood deficit. This is mostly due to importing farm raised fish from Asia.

One answer, deep sea farming of mussels and oysters, as proposed by entrepreneur Phil Cruzer for deep waters off the California coast. These two shellfish have the special advantage over most other types of aquaculture in that they get all their food from the seawater, and do not require any processed fish food, which is typically made from forage fish. This is an optimistic approach to more sustainably feeding the world.

Improved electrical grids can be a major factor

There is nothing especially glamorous about an electrical grid, but when done right, the beneficial results can be surprising, especially for improving utilization of renewable energy, like wind and solar. For example, what an extensive electrical grid can do is move power from where the wind is blowing, to where the wind is not blowing, or to where the sun is not shining.

Europe is in the process of constructing a very extensive grid system as explained in The Deal: European Supergrid Sets High Expectations

Agriculture's response to climate change

The technology of selective breeding crop plants and ranch animals is being used to make both more tolerant of hotter, dryer conditions. The lead sentences from a USA Today article:

"Across American agriculture, farmers and crop scientists have concluded that it's too late to fight climate change. They are trying to adapt to it with new generations of hardier animals and plants specially engineered to survive, and even thrive, in intense heat, with little rain."

Unlike trying to reduce carbon emissions, this adaption process faces few challenges, and those using it come out ahead pretty much as they do it. Switch from coal to solar power generation, and you generally become less competitive with those who remain on coal. Were fossil fuel power generation to pay for its total costs, environmental degradation included, renewable energy would definitely be competitive.

Latest James Hansen study and report

No models, just statistical analysis of what has been happening to our Earth's temperature and weather.

Hansen's conclusion? The past 10 years of extreme weather events is significant evidence of global warming, as opposed to a continuing random series of weather extremes. Per Hansen, humans and their greenhouse gas emissions are causing the global warming and the associated weather extremes.

My opinion? I see many sound reasons to agree with Hansen, and no significant reasons to disagree. But will this report by Hansen make any difference regarding our actions?

From an article in the Washington Post,
“The science in Hansen’s study is excellent “and reframes the question,” said Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia who was a member of the Nobel Prize-winning international panel of climate scientists that issued a series of reports on global warming.

Rather than say, ‘Is this because of climate change?’ That’s the wrong question. What you can say is, ‘How likely is this to have occurred with the absence of global warming?’ It’s so extraordinarily unlikely that it has to be due to global warming,” Weaver said." (bold by finbliz)

And now another quote from the same article, so true and so depressing:
"Science policy expert Roger Pielke Jr. of the University of Colorado said Hansen clearly doesn’t understand social science, thinking a study like his could spur action. Just because something ought to happen, doesn’t mean it will, he said."

A Glint of Solar Optimism

If you have been tracking solar panel developments, you know that many solar panel manufacturers have been going out of business due to stiff competition and falling prices. That seems very unfortunate, because the World could so benefit from broad solar power expansion.

Well finally a bright note from First Solar of Tempe, AZ. Their profits are up 81% since a year ago. Their secret? - focus on solar power plants, aka solar farms. For full details, see the Bloomberg article posted on Renewable Energy World.

Coccolithophores ...our very small, beneficial friends

 In the above photo, the brilliant cyan is a bloom of phytoplankton, believed to be Coccolithophores: photo from NASA

I have made a few previous posts about Coccolithophores and why they gave me hope for their potential Earth saving contributions. In Carbon Eaters of the Black Sea they re-emerge as a source of hope for our planet, but also a question is raised as to whether ocean acidification will significantly interfere with their beneficial role.

Drought - a first hand perspective

Much of the US is presently in a record breaking drought, and I am guessing that many of us don't have a real good perspective of how bad this can be, so from Steve Lyons at the Dickinson Press:

"Of all the ways nature has to kill you, drought may be the cruelest. The desiccation proceeds day after punishing day. The afternoon sun pounds the Earth like a brazen hammer. As I write, the temperature here in Perry County, Arkansas, has reached 108 degrees."

For the full article: Climate change real - ask the cows

1.6 Billion data points say Earth is warming

According to Richard A. Muller, professor of physics at the University of California,  "Global warming is real and greenhouse-gas emissions from human activity are the main cause."

What adds to the impact of this quote is that Richard Muller was once a serious global warming skeptic. To help him resolve the question of whether the Earth is really warming, he organized a small group of dedicated researchers to study all scientific Earth temperature data......in all 1.6 billion data points.

Richard is no longer a skeptic. He now firmly believes the Earth is warming because of human emissions, primarily CO2. For very concisely presented details on his group's study, see  BerkeleyEarth.org

A provocative thought re our climate future

 "The future depends on what we do in the present. " -- Mahatma Gandhi
 Above quote forwarded by Sally Fintel

Why we do not respond to the climate change threat

".......researchers in the burgeoning field of climate psychology have identified another obstacle, one rooted in the very ways our brains work. The mental habits that help us navigate the local, practical demands of day-to-day life, they say, make it difficult to engage with the more abstract, global dangers posed by climate change."

Above quote is from this NY Times article .

I too, think it is very true...how else can we explain being like Ostriches concerning climate change? The science is so very sound!!!

Understanding the Universe Now

The title is in reference to a Boston Globe article titled "The Higgs Boson Nightmare Scenario", which got me thinking hard, because it asked so many good questions about fundamental science. I will not try to paraphrase the questions, but I do highly recommend the article.

Relevance to climate change? Very much so! The more we know about where we are, the better we can take care of where we are...on OUR planet Earth.

Spaceship Planet Earth

How many people can Planet Earth host in a sustainable way? We are currently at 7 billion, and seemingly headed to 9 billion, and beyond. Are we already beyond Earth's healthy carrying capacity? I think  at very least, we are right at very the limits of it.

For a stunning example of what happens when the carrying capacity of a finite environment is exceeded, see the first few paragraphs of Home Planet in the Cornell Alumni magazine.

One last quote from the above linked article by Frank T. Rhodes, Cornell President for 18 years: “......it’s easy to forget that we share the planet with two million other named species, and the effect we’re having on them is huge. We just assume that every other species gets out of the way while we take what we want. But there’s a limit to how long we can go on doing that, because like it or not we depend to varying degrees on many of these other species. We injure not just them, but ourselves, by the casual way in which we plunder the planet.”

Sea Level Rise, some at-odds perspectives

Want a few laughs, and lots of good view points? Watch the 10 minute video from Yale Climate forums offered here. It is especially applicable to those of us that live on the east coast of the US.

And it is especially distressing to those of us who want to vote for sane, objective and unbiased elected officials.

China Solar Plans

As I am sure you are aware, many US Solar panel manufacturers are going out of business because of competition from low cost panels from China. Well, this has also impacted China to divert much of its excess solar panel production to internal use. Net result for the world in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is still very good. For details: Renewable Energy and Bloomberg.

Is Global Warming Really Happening?

"Trenberth, who shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his work on climate change, said for most of the last century record high and low temperatures were about even. So far this year, there have be 15,055 record highs, but only 1,343 record lows. That ratio of about 11 to 1, Trenberth said, is some of the clearest evidence yet of climate change." (full article)

I certainly agree that the evidence is becoming irrefutable, unless you are an Ostrich with your head buried in the sand, which by the way, they do not do. 

For an in depth perspective from NASA Earth Observatory describing the recent Derecho storm that left millions without power, see  Derecho Strikes the Eastern US and Power Outages in Washington DC Area. Most climatologists think that the severity of this storm was increased due to global warming. Not a proven point, but as more severe storms occur, the evidence mounts.

Higgs Boson

The Higgs Boson. What is it? Does it really exist? and what is happening at the Large Hadron Collider? Want more details? See Understanding What's Up With the Higgs Boson at the Large Hadron Collider from Science Daily. What does this have to do with climate change? Maybe a lot, maybe not much, but for sure something, if only in terms of long term solutions.

600 Mile Flooding Hotspot along East Coast

And if you live along the coast near where I live, you are in the Hotspot. This issue is a combination of rising sea levels and changing ocean currents.

For details, see New Jersey dot com 
And National Geographic

Wind Turbines Can Be Beautiful

New concept, but certainly very eye opening, are the winning photos from a new Wind Turbine photography contest REV/MODO.com:

"Who knew wind turbines could be so beautiful? With the right eye, these tall workhorses look more like pieces of art than components of renewable energy technology. The Global Wind Day “Wind in Mind” photo competition was launched in May 2012 by the European Wind Energy Association and over 50 partner organizations. They received a startling 2,300 entries, but the competition jury–made up of professional photographers and art directors–managed to pick six winners based on geographic location." (see top link for the 5 winning photos)

Antarctica - history, science and cooperation

 Antarctic Glacier Calving, 2007 - photo by Bill Fintel

As recently as 100 million years ago when Antarctica was at the South Pole, it was a swamp with dinosaurs. At that time, earth's biological and geological processes were involved in consuming huge quantities of atmospheric CO2, and slowly converting them to coal, oil and natural gas. Since the start of the industrial revolution, we humans have been reversing that conversion at an incredible rate. That is just some of what is presented in the engrossing article, The Great Thaw, by Gabrielle Walker in the NY Times Opinion Pages.

Another significant point the author makes is the level of cooperation that currently takes place in Antarctica: "Today Antarctica is officially shared. The Antarctic Treaty System, signed by all of the 49 countries that have a presence there, proclaims the continent a scientific preserve and bans military activity.......On the ice, old enmities mean little. Russians side with South Koreans, British with Argentines. Faced with the dangers of a hostile land, what matters most is that you are human."

It is a long article, but written in a very engaging and informative manner.

A 21 Step Path to less than 2 deg C Temp Rise

Bald Eagle, Alaska, June 2012 by Bill Fintel

Link is to a recent post on Ezra Klein's WONKBLOG on the Washington Post. What I like best about this post is that it concludes just what I have concluded all along: there have to be many solutions to avert severe global warming. And I especially like Ezra's love of graphs for conveying a message.

I have been very guilty burning airline fuel to get to/and from Alaska lately, so one way to compensate will be for me to post more often on this blog, and with many more good ideas from everyone.

CO2 Emissions and China

Looks like China may determine the fate of the World relative to global warming. They have been targeted for "dumping" solar panels (I'd like to think they were trying to help the World go solar, but the US Gov thinks otherwise), and now they are recorded as increasing CO2 emissions by 9.3% per year.

At least China's population growth rate is down to a modest 0.5%.

But shouldn't every country be down to 0% growth rate? This is planet Earth!...and I don't think in the foreseeable future we are going to colonize any other planets, large space stations, moons, or whatever.

Sustainable Seafood

Sustainability has become a very popular term, hopefully because it makes so much sense, and because it is very needed in so many ways. Sustainable food production, which includes aquaculture and commercial fishing, in the long run is really the only means of feeding the world in a healthy manner, without degrading our environment. Sustainable energy production is ultimately the only way to meet the world's energy needs, without catastrophically altering the world's climate.

So, should you eat farmed fish? Marc Guenther addresses this complicated question and provides some optimistic insights into what the aquaculture industry is doing to become more sustainable. New to me was the size of the aquaculture industry. "Already, roughly half the world’s supply of fish is farmed."

“Aquaculture’s big,” said Jose Villalon, a fisheries biologist who leads the aquaculture program at the World Wildlife Fund. “It’s the fastest growing food industry in the world. It’s not a trend. It’s here to stay.” He said that aquaculture has been growing about 9% a year for at least a decade, and that fish farming can become one of the most sustainable sources of healthy food.

The Monterey Bay Aquarium  is a leading non-profit working to  promote sustainable seafood through their Seafood Watch program. They offer free pocket seafood guides which clarify which fish species are harvested in a sustainable manner. Monterey Bay also offers an app with their Sea Watch program. One key criteria for sustainability is that the fishing technique does not have a large bycatch, and that it does not seriously harm the marine environment.

Another approach to sustainable seafood which gaining in popularity is voluntary certification. There are two organizations involved in a world-wide effort: the Marine Stewardship Council and the Aquaculture Stewardship Council.

So if you refuse to become a vegan, you can still switch the cattle, dairy, poultry portion of your diet to healthy, sustainable seafood, as I have done.

Aqua Sattellite 10 year Anniversary

From Earth Observatory "Aqua has collected a remarkable 29 million gigabytes of data throughout the last decade. (For perspective, one gigabyte holds the contents of about 10 yards of books on a shelf; 100 gigabytes would hold a floor of books in an academic library)." 
For a 10 year summary.

Satellite information gathering will probably be our best resource to figure out how to save the Earth, IF we indeed are willing and can save the Earth.

Flatulence, Climate and Dinosaurs

Methane released by cattle, and other ruminants accounts for 50 to 100 million tons of greenhouse gas emissions per year, and methane is 23 times more potent than carbon dioxide at warming our planet. This knowledge prompted some British scientists to hypothesize what large herbivorous dinosaurs might have released. Their calculations came up with about 520 million tons of methane per year, a quantity large enough that it could have accounted for the earth's relatively warm temperatures back in the age of dinosaurs 140 million years ago.

This news has been widely publicized, so maybe it is not new to you. What surprised me is that after reading about it from 4 or 5 different sources, I found by far the best and most accurate summary in the Wall Street Journal article, Dinosaur Gas Emissions May Have Warmed Air.

Ground Roots

After reading this article about saving winter, I am seriously contemplating how to introduce the idea that, as individuals who believe climate change is happening and is VERY BAD, we ALL need to do something to slow and eventually stop climate change, so my new view is that what we need is a strong "ground roots" movement.

Then I ask myself: Is my term ground roots appropriate? I search Google and after reading many ground roots references, I find Ground Roots - the human story of the green revolution (link is to a moving specific post). What a delight! It is 11 pm, I have worked hard on our home organic vegetable garden today, but now can I sleep? Eventually yes, and after several busy days of breeding bird surveys, planting more vegetables, and most importantly, reading more of the GroundRoots blog by Lily, I decide it is time for you to see my thoughts, and Lily's GroundRoots blog.

Geothermal Energy Plans in Kenya

Geothermal energy in this context is not "geothermal heat pumps", but rather it is actually extracting high levels of heat energy from the Earth, typically at about 500 deg C, and using that heat energy to produce electricity from steam turbines coupled to electric generators, as already very well developed in coal and gas powered electricity generation.

From the article in Renewable Energy News, ".....the geothermal energy potential in Kenya is estimated be upwards of 10,000 MW." That is the equivalent 20 average coal fired power plants, which for a country the size of Kenya, is very significant. Their current commitments to geothermal are very encouraging (as spelled out in the linked article, which is long and very detailed).

Deep Water Wind Turbines

In many coastal areas of the world, the best winds for power generation are over water too deep to place a bottom mounted wind turbine. To address this potential, the US and the UK are jointly developing wind turbines on floating platforms. They will be anchored with cables and can be placed in 60 to 100 meters of water...water too deep for bottom mounted turbines.

Osmotic Power

This video is about a prototype osmotic power plant in Norway. The principal is basically the opposite of a reverse osmosis desalination plant. In the power plant, fresh water from a river and salt water from the ocean are placed on either side of an osmotic membrane in a pressure vessel. The fresh water diffuses through the membrane creating high pressure on the salt water side equivalent to a head of water about 120 ft high. This pressurized water is released through a nozzle creating a jet of water used to drive a water turbine and coupled generator. Improved membrane technology is what is renewing interest in this unique approach to carbon-free power generation.

The original lead was from a recent article in Renewable Energy World.

Climate and Veganism - a major opportunity

Why is being a vegan good for our planet? It is actually very simple. Our foods growing energy comes from the sun. Plants (including phytoplankton in the sea) contain the largest amount of food energy per unit of solar energy delivered to Earth. Farm animals fed on plants we grow loose a large amount of the initial solar energy delivered to Earth due to conversion inefficiencies...and adding to climate woes, animal wastes release large amounts of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, all potent greenhouse gases.

Want to pursue further? Start with Marc Guenther's vegan posts. There are a multitude of issues eating less meat addresses, your health probably being #1.

Am I a vegan? Almost, and my wife Sally is a full vegan. My deviation from being a full vegan is because I still consume some fish, preferably caught by me on hook-and-line, but also some commercially caught in the wild, like sardines and wild Pacific Salmon. My consumption of hoofed animals and poultry and dairy is zero.

Climate Change and the Jet Stream

The above video does an excellent job of relating global warming to jet stream changes to extreme weather events. It is from The Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media. Definitely worth watching. Be sure to hit the full screen button in the lower right.

A Republican Meteorologists View of Climate Change

From Paul Douglas' article in Bloomberg Business Week: "If you know anything about American politics these days, and follow the climate war at all, you might anticipate with some confidence that I agree global warming is a hoax. That’s a shame, and I hope it changes soon."

This is an excellent article that really exposes the political and monetary side to skepticism that humans are causing global warming.More from the article:

"Climate science shows that over a long period of time, the statistics have changed. Things that used to happen a lot, like consistent winter snow cover, are happening less reliably. Things that happened every now and then, like droughts and wildfires, are happening more reliably. And things that almost never happened -- such as the 15,000 new U.S. temperature records in March -- sometimes now do occur. And they can’t be explained with purely meteorological reasoning.........

........How did so much of the Republican Party enter perpetual denial? We’ve turned climate science into a bizarre litmus test for conservatism. To pretend that heat-trapping gases can be waved away with a nod and a smirk is political fairytale. No harm. No foul. Keep drilling."

2012 Warmest March Ever

From NASA Earth Observatory:
First they called it the year without a winter. Then springtime began to feel more like summer for most of North America. March 2012 saw thousands of daily temperature records fall in the contiguous United States (often called the “lower 48”), and the entire month was the warmest March in a temperature record that dates back to 1895.

“Of the more than 1,400 months that have passed since the U.S. record began,” NOAA climatologists wrote, “only one month (January 2006) has seen a larger departure from its average temperature than March 2012.”

Von Karman Vortices

Okay, this has nothing to do with global warming, but it is certainly a part of atmospheric science, which has a lot to do with climate modelling. I found the linked article from Earth Observatory (NASA) fascinating.

Tornado Forecasting and Reporting by NOAA

The above map is for 4/14/12 when a severe outbreak of tornadoes was experienced in the central US. Much to NOAA's credit, this outbreak was forecast and publicly announced at least 24 hours in advance, and this probably saved many lives.

If you go to the title link, you will find a page with options in blue blocks across the top. Click the Severe Thunderstorm block, and you will get another page with many graphical forecasts and recent historical maps like the above. This map is titled "Yesterday's Severe Thunderstorm Reports" and is in the lower right hand list of these graphical options. Selecting this option also gives one the actual reports in CSV (Excel readable) format, so if you really want to research whether severe weather is increasing, you can get the data to analyze this.

What do I plan to do?...I plan to continue to believe the true meteorologists and climate scientists studying this question.

Where Is the Hottest Place on Earth?

This is a fun read. The hottest places on Earth are so hot that it is impractical to install remote sensors there. But satellites work. Enjoy!...and let me know if you find a definite answer to the title question.

Volcanoes and Climate - Two Way Street

 Vatnajökull glacier shown in lower right, NASA photo

There has been a lot in the news lately about Iceland's volcanoes, the increased activity at one named Katla, and the potential for a major eruption soon. As you probably know, such an eruption could kill people nearby.... and far away due to air pollution, poison agriculture, disrupt air traffic over Europe, and if large enough, even cool the global climate for several years.

What I did not know previously is that some of the increased volcanic activity is attributed to global warming. From the title linked article by Professor Andy Hooper:

"This trend (of increased volcanic activity) is being exacerbated by climate change. Vatnajökull (Iceland's largest glacier) has lost an estimated 400  billion tonnes of ice since the end of the 19th century. This has reduced the pressure on the hot mantle material beneath the crust, leading to increased magma generation. At the end of the last ice age, this same effect led to eruption rates some 30 times higher than at present. The current rate of ice loss is much lower than then, but we can still expect the formation of extra magma equivalent to that which erupted from Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 every 10 years or so."

CO2 and Post Ice Age Global Temperatures - New Data

One difficult to explain relationship when looking back at geologic history, has been that following ice ages, data seemed to show global temperature increasing before atmospheric CO2 levels increased. It turns out that this data was all for the Antarctic region, and now when scientists look at true global temperatures (based on proxy measurements derived from fossil records at 80 locations around the globe), CO2 does rise before global temperatures rise. This of course is far more in line with the the expected cause and effect of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and global temperature.

After having read several articles about this recent work, the one by Jonathan Amos of the BBC was selected as the title link because it gives a more detailed explanation of all the factors involved. An oversimplified summary would be that: as the the Earth's wobble changed so that the northern hemisphere received more sunlight, the vast ice sheets began to melt. Fresh water from them slowed down the Atlantic overturning circulation (ocean conveyor). This trapped more heat near the equator and southern hemisphere, which in turn contributed to an increase in CO2 release from the deep waters of the southern oceans. And finally, the increase in CO2 levels, from about 180 ppm to 260 ppm, increased the rate of global warming. Here we are today at about 390 ppm CO2 and rising.

Greater Maximum Artic Sea Ice Extent This Winter

Arctic Max Sea Ice Extent Winter 2011-2012 - NASA

OK, not a lot more, but at least not another new record low. So a small optimistic note after yesterday's gloomy posting.

But don't get too optimistic too fast. Quoting the last two paragraphs from the NASA link:

'Meier points out something else about Arctic sea ice extent. “The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the last nine years, since 2004,” he says.

Although Arctic sea ice has continued to grow later in the season, the ice has been thin—only about 10 to 30 centimeters (4 to 12 inches) thick at most, Meier explains. “So it will all melt away very quickly. I don’t expect the late-season growth spurt to have a big effect on sea ice extent next summer.” '

Tipping Points and Irreversible Climate Change

Warning, this is not an optimistic report from Nina Chestney at Reuters. The report is an initial summary of presentations at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference taking place in London.

"Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably."

The tipping points include loss of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, loss of Amazon rainforest, and release of millions of tons of carbon currently frozen in Siberian permafrost. 

It is a bleak picture. And it is supported by what is happening right now. See NASA's Global Climate Change Indicators. 

As a footnote, here is the link to Planet Under Pressure.

Cherry Blossoms and Current Warm Weather

Bill, Emily, Sally and Dianne at Cherry Blossom Festival 4/3/11. It was a lot colder last year.

I liked the Washington Post comparison of weather extremes over the past few decades. Bottom line: We are having many more high temp extremes than we used to, and far fewer low temp extremes than we used to.

In a nutshell, probably this is a very good short term indicator of climate change.

NASA and the Current Unusual Warm Weather

I am still getting organized after a great trip to the Andes, but did want to post this amazing temperature imagery of North America for the past week.....unusually warm!!!! From NASA Earth Observatory:

"A huge, lingering ridge of high pressure over the eastern half of the United States brought summer-like temperatures to North America in March 2012. The warm weather shattered records across the central and eastern United States and much of Canada."

The Heartland Files

Many of you have probably read about this latest skirmish between the "avowed scientific believers in climate change" and the avowed skeptics. The title link by Andrew Revkin delves into many of the details in more depth, and raises some very pertinent points about funding for both sides, and the many opportunities for conflict of interest.

My opinion? I definitely believe the science which concludes that the Earth is warming due to human fossil fuel emissions is very sound. You are of course welcome to your opinion, but do study the science, and the credentials of those who present their opinions.

For another good perspective, see The Toxic Debate by Marc Gunther.

Ocean Eddies

I just love unique satellite photos, so I could not help posting the above from Earth Observatory. Eddies are the weather events in the oceans..."these storms—better known as eddies—are more likely to bring life to the sea...and often in places that are otherwise barren."

Meatless Monday and Meat the Truth

Meatless Monday is a global movement to help our climate be healthier......and to help YOU be healthier!!!

From the title link:
"If everyone in the US went meatless one day a week: The carbon savings would be the same as taking 19.2 million cars off U.S. roads for a year."

Meatless Monday is a big web site, so explore the other pages as well as the linked page.

What have I done? I have gone from a weekly average of eating meat 2x per day to eating meat less than 1x per day, or more than a 50% reduction in meat consumption.......and the meat I eat is 99% fish. What has Sally done? She is 100% meatless....a vegan.

Tidal Energy

Working on Osher Climate Class 3, I came upon this fascinating web page (title link). Since I know I only have time to cover a small portion of this topic, I wanted to make this information available now.

Two advantages of tidal power versus wind or waves are one, it is very predictable, and two, it is normally located close to shore, so transmission is much easier. Also see this link about East River, NY plans.

Photovoltaics vs Solar Thermal (CSP)

The referenced article titled, "Cheap Photovoltaics are Eating Solar Thermal's Lunch" makes clear how competitive the solar field is, and how quickly economics, and hence strategies can shift.

This is an excellent article with clear insight into the economic driving forces involved, such as "dispatchable power", i.e. power which can be rapidly put on-line when needed. Solar thermal offers this feature by storing the collected solar energy as a hot fluid, and later using the hot fluid to generate electricity as needed. However, dispatchable power is also readily available from natural gas, which is inexpensive, in good supply, and faces no current penalties, such as a carbon tax.

And why are photovoltaic prices falling so quickly? Just see this Bloomberg analysis if you really want the details.

Geothermal Energy Potential Rises

According to the linked article from EnergyDigital, geothermal energy potential in the U.S. exceeds that of coal by 10 fold. A new mapping study funded by Google shows many locations that previously had not been identified. From the article:

“This assessment of geothermal potential will only improve with time,” said Dr. David Blackwell, lead researcher of the project, according to SMU's news archive yesterday. “Our study assumes that we tap only a small fraction of the available stored heat in the Earth’s crust, and our capabilities to capture that heat are expected to grow substantially as we improve upon the energy conversion and exploitation factors through technological advances and improved techniques.”

Responding to Global Warming - Class schedule

After our discussion in class 1 today, I have decided to use the priorities arrived at by voting on the various topics to govern the amount of time spent on each topic, and to try to cover more than 6 topics. On this basis, following is the agenda for the remaining 3 classes.

Feb 6 – Solar Photovoltaic (PV), Solar Thermal and Geothermal. Solar thermal is also known as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP).

Feb 13 – Wind, Waves, Tide, OTEC and Ocean Clouds. In other words, this class will focus on the ocean.

Feb 20 – Presidents Day, NO class.

Feb 27 – Nuclear Fission, Nuclear Fusion, Biofuels and Forest preservation (see REDD). 

Mar 5 - NO Class

OTEC - Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is an idea for energy production that dates back to the 1800's. From The Economist, the first OTEC power plant was built "in 1930 at Matanzas Bay, just across the Florida straits from the Bahamas, in Cuba. That successfully produced 22kW, though it was eventually destroyed by wind and waves. A mere eight decades later, the technology may at last come to fruition."

The latest commercial implementation is in the Bahamas, as described in the title link from the Nassau Guardian. 

OTEC technology utilizes the heat difference between warm surface waters, and much cooler deep ocean waters to power a "heat engine" to produce electricity. Key requirements are surface water temps of +25 deg C and nearby deep water (+1,000 ft) available for cooling. The motive chemical used is usually ammonia. The warm surface waters boil the ammonia, it passes through turbines to produce electricity, and then the cool deep waters condense it to be recycled back through the "heat engine" process.

Biobutanol, alive and well

I last looked into biobutanol back in 2006 for an Alternative Energy course. It seemed like a promising biofuel with far superior properties to ethanol, so I wondered how it was doing in 2012. Well not only is the joint venture between DuPont and BP to manufacture biobutanol still alive, a new venture has been formed in Scotland to produce biobutanol from byproducts of scotch whiskey manufacture (title link).

And if that is not inspiring enough, zebras have entered the act with a bacterium in their poop known as TU-103. This bacterium can ferment cellulose into butanol in the presence of oxygen, a real cost advantage over current processes.

Plains Zebra, Etosha National Park, Namibia by Bill Fintel

Also, bear in mind that although burning biofuels creates CO2, growing biofuels consumes CO2.

Solar Cheaper Than Diesel

Okay, solar power is still not cheaper than coal fired power plants, but this report from Bloomberg is very encouraging because it shows how fast things can change for the better (environmentally) if the economics are there. From the title link:

"The cost of solar energy in India declined by 28 percent since December 2010, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The cause was a 51 percent drop in panel prices last year as the world’s 10 largest manufacturers, led by China’s Suntech Power Holdings Co. (STP), doubled output capacity."