Climate Tipping Points

For a report commissioned jointly by Allianz, a leading global financial services provider, and WWF, a leading global environmental NGO, and prepared by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, see Climate Tipping Points.

This link contains several short videos narrated by Timothy Lenton, a researcher at the University of East Anglia, and lead author of the highly cited paper, Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system.

Climate Change Tipping Points from Wake Up, Freak Out

We will be watching the linked video in our upcoming class, but it is well worth watching two or more times to grasp all the concepts presented. The video link is HERE.

Want more information about the creators, go to wakeupfreakout.org

And please note that this video does not portray the forecast changes as inevitable, so to Judy Hendricks (who was seeking some optimism at the end of our last class) and to all of our Class, lets hear from you about some of your optimistic ideas to avert catastrophic climate change. This will be our main subject in class 5, and lots of class time will be available for discussion of ideas, new info, etc. I am usually optimistic, so lets see what we can come up with. Bill

Sea-level rise a coastal concern

This News Journal article, Part 1, paints a grim picture for large areas of Delaware and Maryland. Unfortunately, effective responses are not envisioned without the expenditure of very large sums of money, and even then major losses will still occur. From the News Journal:

Eleven of the state’s largest environmental groups already have drafted a joint statement supporting DNREC’s soon-to-be-released sea-level vulnerability findings, citing dramatic potential losses to the state’s economy and ecosystems. The draft statement includes a call for residents to encourage state and local government attention to the issue.

O’Mara said communities along Delaware’s coast and bays are “very special places. But at the same time, if we’re going to invest resources from all taxpayers, we need to make sure there is a public benefit.”

Ground Roots

After reading this article about saving winter, I am seriously contemplating how to introduce the idea that, as individuals who believe climate change is happening and is VERY BAD, we ALL need to do something to slow and eventually stop climate change, so my new view is that what we need is a strong "ground roots" movement.

Then I ask myself: Is my term ground roots appropriate? I search Google and after reading many ground roots references, I find Ground Roots - the human story of the green revolution (link is to a moving specific post). What a delight! It is 11 pm, I have worked hard on our home organic vegetable garden today, but now can I sleep? Eventually yes, and after several busy days of breeding bird surveys, planting more vegetables, and most importantly, reading more of the GroundRoots blog by Lily, I decide it is time for you to see my thoughts, and Lily's GroundRoots blog.

Tipping Points and Irreversible Climate Change

Warning, this is not an optimistic report from Nina Chestney at Reuters. The report is an initial summary of presentations at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference taking place in London.

"Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably."

The tipping points include loss of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, loss of Amazon rainforest, and release of millions of tons of carbon currently frozen in Siberian permafrost. 

It is a bleak picture. And it is supported by what is happening right now. See NASA's Global Climate Change Indicators. 

As a footnote, here is the link to Planet Under Pressure.

Class 5 Tipping Points

Title link takes you to Powerpoint program in the cloud.

"Wake Up, Freak Out"... RE Tipping Points

This short video is on the agenda for our Osher Climate Class 11/14, but I recommend watching it more than once (I am up to 3x). It really cuts through to the fundamentals of tipping points so succinctly.

Earth and Its Climate in 2031 (Osher class title)

Following is the agenda for the next 4 classes of this Osher Lifelong Learning Course at the University of Delaware in Lewes, DE. The overall question to be addressed: "What will the Earth be like in 2031 in regard to the following subjects?"

October 24 - Global weather changes, and the effect on agriculture, potable water and feeding a growing world.

October 31 - Geographic population shifts and climate refugees.

November 7 - Wildlife and vegetation changes, plus the role of forests.

November 14 - Tipping points, what are the most troublesome ones, and how likely are they to occur?

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Details

This article in the Oct 15 TimesOnline provides many interesting details about the trends and implications in the loss of Arctic sea ice. The loss has been measured not only in extent by satellite, but also in average thickness by hands-on measurements:

"Mr Hadow and his two team members spent 73 days between March 1 and May 7 this year walking 280 miles (450.6km) across the Arctic while taking measurements. They drilled 1,500 holes and found that the average thickness of ice floes was 1.8m (5.9ft)."

For an answer to - Why was sea ice extent in 2009 only the 3rd lowest ? - see this NSIDC press release which contains the following quote: "The cooler conditions, which resulted largely from cloudy skies during late summer, slowed ice loss compared to the past two years (Figure 4). In addition, atmospheric patterns in August and September helped to spread out the ice pack, keeping extent higher. "