The clouds of unknowing

The March 20th, 2010 edition of the Economist magazine gives a briefing on The science of climate change. They cover the uncertainties of the IPCC modeling but conclude:

" The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction."

Tropical Cyclones Thomas and Ului

The above link is to a composite NASA satellite image of both of these cyclones on March 15. The destruction done by Thomas is still unfolding, but if you have not already read about it, here is the latest AP report. Are these cyclones more severe because of global warming? Probably only history will tell.

Antarctica: Mertz Glacier/Iceberg update

 

To see a full size image, click on photo......and remember, you are viewing icebergs approximately the size of Rhode Island.

Delaware: 30% Renewable by 2029

From DelawareOnline: "Gov. Jack Markell on Wednesday proposed a 10-year extension of a Delaware law that requires utilities to buy electric power from renewable sources, seeking to spur green manufacturing and help residents afford small-scale solar installations.

Under the proposal, every electric utility in the state would need to buy 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources such as solar or wind power by 2029. That's an increase from current law, which requires 20 percent by 2019."

Methane, 20x more potent than CO2

This article in the Guardian.co.uk seeks to put in perspective the role of arctic methane in future climate change. The article has many links, so you too can become methane-supersaturated, just like the ocean waters above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

If you just wish their conclusion, it is:

"For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth's climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen."

My opinion? I think methane may be a bigger player than the above quote implies. If you have an opinion, please add it under comments.

Why the past decade did not warm more than it did

You may recall that Phil Jones, former director of Britain's Climatic Research Unit, said there has been NO statistically significant global warming from 1995 to the present. If true, why?

Well it would appear that a 10% decrease in water vapor in the stratosphere may be the cause. Water vapor is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas, and has been thought to remain at relatively stable concentrations. While the linked study cites extensive measurements, the authors confess to not knowing why stratospheric water vapor content changes.

Since water vapor and cloud formation are linked, you might wish to check out this short article about improved cloud modeling in Nature Climate Reports.   Photo: Clouds over Madagascar by Bill Fintel

Cold Snap Plus Global Warming Do Add Up

The Artic Oscillation resulting from a pattern of high sealevel pressure over the Arctic has led to "weaker westerly winds that typically pin cold air closer to the North pole...Cold snaps and bouts of natural cooling that could last years are expected naturally even as the climate continues on a long-term warming trend, forced by man-made emissions." John Wallace, an atmospheric science professor from the University of Washington, said that the weakened jet stream has allowed cold Arctic air to creap into more southern latituded.

This link, to a NASA Earth Observatory news letter, contains comments from James Hansen, who as you all know, is a strong advocate of anthropogenic global temperature interference. That aside, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has determined that the year 2009 was tied for the second hottest year on record.

Frankly, there is still too much scientists don't know yet to be certain that natural warming trend causes are not an even greater influence.