Cosmic rays and climate

CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is studying a possible link between cosmic rays and the earth's climate. The concept was presented in a lecture at CERN on June 4, 2009 by the leader of the effort, Jasper Kirkby. Following is the abstract of that talk.
" The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes. However, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr) by amounts comparable to the current warming - and yet the mechanism or mechanisms are not understood. Some of these reconstructions show clear associations with solar variability, which is recorded in the light radio-isotope archives that measure past variations of cosmic ray intensity. However despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established.
Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales appear to be too small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of whether cosmic rays may directly affect the climate, providing an effective indirect solar forcing mechanisms. Indeed recent satellite observations - although disputed - suggest that cosmic rays may affect clouds. This talk presents an overview of paleoclimatic evidence for solar/cosmic ray forcing of the climate, and reviews the possible physical mechanisms. These will be investigated in the CLOUD experiment which begins to take data at the CERN PS later this year."
Kirkby's lecture can be viewed at the link shown.

Copenhagen from a business perspective.

The January 19, 2010 issue of the Financial Times commented that the Copenhagen Climate Change meeting did not provide enough certainty to influence any business decision. Since most renewable technologies are not competitive with fossil fuels unless backed by government support a failure to reach a political commitment could be fatal. The countries that made the strongest objection to the progress of the talks were oil producing States such as Venezuela, Sudan and Saude Arabia

The Renewable Energy Industry worldwide still has enough momentum to sustain contnued growth. For the future the decisive factors will be the Politics, the economics of the energy industry and the science of Climate Change. If the evidence of the negative impact of global warming mounts then the uncertainty for Clean Energy will dissappear.

Apart from the Financial Times the above chart shows the 4th Quarter 2009 cost of producing electricity ($/mega watt hour). From Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Accelerating

Very interesting study showing that the major cause of ice loss in Antarctica is glacial flow into the sea, and that it has been accelerating, even though surface melting has been declining. This appears to be due to warmer sea, but will be studied in much more detail by placing an instrumented buoy under the Pine Island Glacier in 2011.

The Antarctic isn't melting much -- Yet

The circumpolar winds that circulate around the Antarctic have strengthened during the past four decades, acting as a barrier to warm air intrusion from lower latitudes. This is attributed to the thinner ozone layer, making the stratosphere cooler which in turn generates stronger winds beneath, effectively sealing off most of the continent each summer from the effects of global warming. The past Antarctic summer has seen less melting than any time in the past 30 years during which satellite data has been available.

However, the as the ozone quantity increases this is expected to cause a reduction in the circumpolar winds, allowing greater intrusion of warmer air and hence, increasing the ice sheet melting during the Antarctic summer.

Every year is different, says Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York: "In 2005, we had summer melting occurring inland as well as over the coastal ice shelves, and over areas up to 2500 meters above sea level." Even during exceptional low melt of last year however, ice on the northwest peninsula has contnued to collapse rapidly since February, 2008.

Arctic Oscillation....and why it has been so cold lately

Here is an explanation as to why we, and all of the northern hemisphere, have had significantly below normal temperatures....we are in a negative arctic oscillation....the most severe since 1950. And as you might expect, it has nothing to do with global warming, or global cooling. It is just a large scale atmospheric event, where the arctic for the past month or so, has been much warmer than normal.....10 to 15 degrees F warmer.

For an image of northern hemisphere temperature anomalies from NASA Earth Observatory, click here.

Future implications? See this article in the New Zealand News which discusses the effects of this negative oscillation (high pressure over the arctic) with the formation of arctic sea ice and future reflectivity.....it may either accelerate global warming through less sea ice coverage, or it may reduce global warming by increasing the thickness and stability of older sea ice. Above photo: Prime Hook Jan 8, 2010, click to enlarge.

Green Energy Jobs Push

He (Obama) outlined the initiative after a weak government jobs report raised new questions about the sustainability of the recovery.

"It's clear why such an effort is so important. Building a robust clean energy sector is how we will create the jobs of the future, jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced," Obama said in late-afternoon economic comments at the White House.

Sorry this post is so main stream, but it is also so important, and encouraging! Lets see what happens next.

Lobsters and ocean acidity

All you lobster lovers can breathe a sigh of relief. Lobsters actually fare better in more acidic water. This was even a surprise to the scientists who conducted the experiments, which did in fact show that 10 of 18 marine calcifiers had more difficulty building their exoskeleton as sea water became more acidic, but lobsters, crabs and shrimp were better able to build their shells.

The article is in Nature Reports - Climate Change, and from this link you can access other articles, issues and a blog, all focused on climate change.

Scientists Map Speed of Climate Change

Shifting climate regimes have resulted in many creatures, such as pine warblers to migrate toward higher latitudes. A tearm of scientists from the California Academy of Sciences have calculated that, on average, ecosystems will need to shift about 0.42 km/yr to keep pace with global climate change. This study, which included scientists from Carnegie Institute of Science and U.C. Berkeley, and whose work will be published in "Nature," looked at the effect on individual species whose tolerence to such changes varies. The rapidity of such change is a critical determining factor. This link is to the NASA's Earth Observatory reporting of this pre-publication finding.

Secretary of State Clinton Speech on Access to Reproductive Health Worldwide

"This event was originally scheduled for December 21, 2009, but was postponed due to weather conditions in the District of Columbia. We invite you to join us on the new date, Friday, January 8, 2010. The speech will be live streamed on www.icpd2015.org starting at approximately 3:00 pm. A transcript and video of of the speech will be posted on this site following the event." Population Connection

A Worthwhile Quote

In a letter to the Economist magazine, Professor Benjamin De Foy of the St Louis University in St Louis ,MO said the following about the Climate Change issue:

"It is importan to keep the debate on climate change alive, so both sides should be grateful for each other. We could learn a lesson from the film '12 Angry Men'. Henry Fonda's lone sceptic holds firm against 11 angry jurors to prevent a possibly wrongful conviction. He does this by focusing on the evidence and not making personal attacks. Each side of the debate on global warming would do well to consider how they measure up to this standard"

Arctic freeze and snow wreak havoc across the planet

"Arctic air and record snow falls gripped the northern hemisphere today, inflicting hardship and havoc from China, across Russia to Western Europe and over the US plains.

There were few precedents for the global sweep of extreme cold and ice that killed dozens in India, paralysed life in Beijing and threatened the Florida orange crop."

Plus, I would like to add that yesterday's Prime Hook Christmas Bird Count was  one of the coldest/harshest bird counts I have ever participated in. Why is this happening and how does it relate to global warming predictions?

I certainly don't know, but I will see what I can learn, such as from the first comment to the linked article: "Yeah well it's 36C (97F) down under here in Melbourne Australia and my air con is at full blast. Serves you all right for living on the wrong side of the Earth!".......i.e. what's happening in half the globe, does not necessarily represent the whole globe.