Wind Power Makes a Big Advance

First, Happy Holidays to all.

And to keep things cheerful, this post is full of positive information. Basically, by improved precision in forecasting winds near wind turbine sites, utilities are able to save millions of dollars per year in total power generation costs. This is because they can now match coal and gas fired generator needs to the predicted output from associated wind turbines, which allows them to shut down coal and gas generation units as long as wind generation units are forecast to be more productive with more wind. Neat science, and a benefit to all.

Methane vs CO2, which is more to be feared

A very thoughtful article from David Archer, author of one of my favorite books on impending climate change, The Long Thaw. His synopsis of methane vs CO2 is so revealing:

"CO₂ is plenty to be frightened of, while methane is frosting on the cake. Imagine you are in a Toyota on the highway at 60 miles per hour approaching stopped traffic, and you find that the brake pedal is broken. This is CO₂. Then you figure out that the accelerator has also jammed, so that by the time you hit the truck in front of you, you will be going 90 miles per hour instead of 60. This is methane. Is now the time to get worried? No, you should already have been worried by the broken brake pedal."

Smile if you can, or better still, read the whole article which concludes with:

"For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth’s climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen."

Wave Energy

 E.ON Pelamis P2, Orkney

I just received a Christmas Newsletter from Pelamis, a company that makes wave powered generators. Their good news is the recent one year anniversary of their first commercial wave generator off the coast of Scotland. The title link goes to the Pelamis site and will open on the page explaining the benefits of wave energy, such as it can be forecast up to 5 days in advance (unlike solar and wind), and it has a very low visual impact. The rest of the site explains how their device works to extract wave energy, what their history is, and what their plans are.

Greenland Ice Sheet, Melting Accelerates

Orange on the above figure indicates where satellites measured increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in 2011

For details about the measurements, see the title link. There is a phenomena involved called "Arctic Amplification". From the Arctic Report Card issued Dec 1, 2011:
"The amplification of warming in the Arctic reflects a powerful feedback between the region’s ice covers and air temperature. As air temperature increases, ice melts; as the bright, reflective ice melts, it reveals darker ocean and land surfaces. These dark surfaces absorb more solar energy during the Arctic’s summer season, when the Sun never sets. This causes more heating, which causes more melting…and so on."

Complete melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet would cause sea levels to rise 6.5 meters, or 21 feet. (USGS fs002-00)

What is Happening Under Pine Island Glacier?

NASA photo of Pine Island Glacier Nov 13, 2011

NASA will be taking a detailed look UNDERNEATH Pine Island Glacier in Antarctica this year and in years to come. One of the most critical questions is what are the underlying sea currents doing that might be accelerating the advance of Pine Island Glacier into the sea, as is being observed.

An excellent summary about what could be one of the most important global warming implications for all mankind. The video is also very good.

Where's the Beef?

It would be good for Earth and all life on it, if this was a current valid question. But it is not. Anyway, some tidbits from the linked Washington Post article by Ezra Klein from July 2009:

• "livestock accounts for 18% of worldwide greenhouse gas emissions."
• "switching to a vegan diet would have a bigger impact than trading in your gas guzzler for a Prius."

And from me, more vegetables and less livestock is also a much healthier way to eat. Thanks to Dorothy Greet for providing this article and her great class on Plant Based Nutrition at Osher Lifelong Learning, Lewes, DE.

ITER - Thermonuclear Fusion

Image from the Belgian portal to ITER

We talked a bit about fusion energy production in our last Osher class, so I felt it worthwhile to refresh my knowledge of where this stands. The title link is to a page on the ITER site which has a very good summary of fusion research to date, and an outlook for the future.

If you like what you read on the linked page, please browse the site more fully. It is amazing technology and an easy to navigate site! There are also several other approaches to controlled nuclear fusion which I will review in the future, but ITER is the biggest, most researched, and most funded approach.

Note: ITER was originally an acronym for International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor. Now ITER is just ITER, but for Latin lovers, it can also be The Journey.

Optimistic Signs of Emissions Reduction Efforts

In this article from the Financial Times, a link is made between top-down governmental efforts to enact binding legislation to reduce carbon emissions, and voluntary bottom-up efforts by industry, and governments to reduce emissions on their own.

The article contains many positive and encouraging efforts, from those of PepsiCo and DuPont, to California, China and Indonesia. However, looking at today's bottom line, actual carbon emissions are still rising, for instance up 5.3% in 2010. Hopefully this figure will soon begin to show a significant decline.

Risk of Extreme Events...SREX

The title link is to a special IPCC web page devoted to Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX).  From the IPCC press release:

Rajendra Pachauri, Chair of the IPCC, said today: “This summary for policymakers provides insights into how disaster risk management and adaptation may assist vulnerable communities to better cope with a changing climate in a world of inequalities”.

“It also underlines the complexity and the diversity of factors that are shaping human vulnerability to extremes--why for some communities and countries these can become disasters whereas for others they can be less severe,” he added.

The site contains an interesting slide show which can be accessed at the link Generic Presentation, just below the video, which is not yet available.

Is Congress Really Listening?

It would appear they are, at least some of them. On Monday Physicist Richard Mueller from Berkley presented the findings by his study group to the House Committee on Natural Resources.

Mueller: "We confirm that over the last 50 years, temperature has risen 0.9 degrees Celsius, or 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This is the same number that the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says."

Ranking committee Democrat Ed Markey lamented the United States' failure to act and applauded Australia's recent approval of a carbon tax to force its coal-fired power stations and other major emitters to "pay to pollute."

"The attacks on climate science have been a colossal distraction from the debate we should be having Congress on what actions should be taken to reduce pollution, create jobs, reclaim our lead in the clean energy race." (Markey)

Class 5 Tipping Points

Title link takes you to Powerpoint program in the cloud.

Class 4 Wildlife and Vegetation Changes

The Title link goes to the original program in Powerpoint format, and now located in Google Docs (aka The Cloud). Note that some links did not convert to active links, but you can still cut and paste them into you browser window to get to the referenced site.

"Wake Up, Freak Out"... RE Tipping Points

This short video is on the agenda for our Osher Climate Class 11/14, but I recommend watching it more than once (I am up to 3x). It really cuts through to the fundamentals of tipping points so succinctly.

Alaskan "Hurricane"

A rare and powerful storm has been buffeting Alaska. For a satellite photo and storm details see the title link. Global warming a factor???

Sea Level Rise and South Florida

The title link is to an article in the Ledger from Lakeland Florida, and provides some first hand insight into what is expected in in the Miami area, and the Everglades. A couple of paragraphs from the article:

"If things continue as predicted, the bottom floors of the hotel where we were meeting would be part of Biscayne Bay — well offshore in Biscayne Bay — by the turn of the century.

And even the parts of Dade County that aren't underwater will be uninhabitable because the rising sea level will have made much of the Biscayne Aquifer, the shallow aquifer that supplies drinking water in this part of Florida, too salty to drink."

Monitoring Instantaneous Sea Level, aka Tide Level

The title link provides a plot of water levels at the Brandywine Light monitoring station in the center of the DE Bay off of Prime Hook Beach. The above plot is from that station showing the water level peaked at approximately 8.3 feet on October 29, 2011.

Due to the dunes north of Prime Hook Beach having been repeatedly washed out by several storms over the past few years, Prime Hook Road was approximately 1.5 feet under water at the worst on Oct 29. This exceptionally high tide was due to a strong Nor'easter and 'spring' tide conditions (new moon plus moon close to earth). Fortunately the current Nor'easter is occurring with the moon at about 1/2 full, so the tides for Nov 5 have only peaked at a little under 6 feet.

Climate Refugees - Osher Class 3 - Updated 11/2

Update:
The book David Weber referred to and summarized  was:
"The coming population crash and our planet's surprising future"

by Fred Pearce.  It can be found in the Lewes public library.

Original Post:
Below are the links used in the class on Oct 31, 2011.

Newtok, Alaska, Town of 350 relocates to higher ground.

Cateret Islands map, and trailer  for "Sun Comes Up" about their relocation attempts.

Article from Financial Times about 'environmental migration'. Also see Oct 24 post in this blog.

Climate refugees in 2050, link to International Organization for Migration page on 'Migration and Climate Change' (see paragraph 3).

Link to movie, "Climate Refugees". Link to 2 trailers is at top of their page. We watched 1/2 of trailer #2. This site also contains the 'Take Action' page with 11 tips we reviewed.

Climate Change Vulnerability Index by Maplecroft.

The most and the least vulnerable countries, from USA Today.

Below, photo of Haiti, the most vulnerable country, from Hispanically Speaking News, June 13, 2011.

Polar Orbiting Climate Satellite Launch - NPP

This was brought out in our Osher Climate Class today, so above is the title link to the NASA page with a great deal of information about instruments, objectives, etc. It is the latest satellite in the Earth Observing System which began about 10 years ago. The NPP launch was Fri, 10/28/2011.

For those of us with grand children, there is also a NPPy page with information for kids, including a video animation with NPPy the baby Polar Bear and his mom.

How Warm Will Earth Get?

Bottom line, if, or should I say when, Earth's CO2 concentration doubles, the expected warming will be about 3 degrees C. See the linked Washington Post blog of Ezra Klein for the sources of this figure, as well as an excellent summary of the mechanisms behind global warming.

These sources, from recent climate data, to climate models, to paleoclimate data, also indicate that the range of expected temperature increase is anywhere from 1 deg C .........to 8.5 deg C.

Environmemtal Migration, aka Climigration

The title linked article was brought into class today by Bo French. It presents an in depth perspective about some of the details of 'environmental migration'. A quote from the Financial Times article:

"Global environmental change is likely to reduce the ability of many people to migrate and therefore will “in some circumstances reduce migration per se”, the report said. “These ‘trapped’ or ‘immobile’ populations are hidden from high-level estimates yet they represent a policy concern just as serious as, if not more serious than, migration.” "

As I read this quote, the people who can not afford to migrate, will face death by starving or drowning or?

On the positive side:
"Migration can not only remove people from environmental danger but also provide new sources of income to help mitigate climate change. Remittances from migrants to families in low-income countries exceed $300bn a year, nearly three times the value of overseas aid."

Sustainable Agriculture

The title link is to the NY Times Blog by Andrew Revkin which contains a link to the excellent video, "The Other Inconvenient Truth", featuring Jonathan Foley.

Some other links used in today's class are:
Skeptic Talking Points Melt Away
NASA On-line Videos
Agriculture and population maps of the world
Nationmaster map and statistics source for countries of the world

Earth Has Warmed 1.8 deg F Since 1950

"Richard Muller, a noted Berkeley physicist who’s been a strident critic of climate campaigners, has released a much-anticipated new package of studies....You can find Muller’s materials at Berkeleyearth.org.....The core finding is that temperatures over the continents have warmed about 1 degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1950.."

Earth and Its Climate in 2031 (Osher class title)

Following is the agenda for the next 4 classes of this Osher Lifelong Learning Course at the University of Delaware in Lewes, DE. The overall question to be addressed: "What will the Earth be like in 2031 in regard to the following subjects?"

October 24 - Global weather changes, and the effect on agriculture, potable water and feeding a growing world.

October 31 - Geographic population shifts and climate refugees.

November 7 - Wildlife and vegetation changes, plus the role of forests.

November 14 - Tipping points, what are the most troublesome ones, and how likely are they to occur?

Feeding a Growing World

For those in the Osher Climate class, and for everyone else, here is a very good summary of the Earth's increasing dilemma as population grows, the planet warms, and food production becomes far more difficult to increase. From the Scientific American title link:

".....there can be no permanent progress in the battle against hunger until the agencies that fight for increased food production and those that fight for population control unite in a common effort," Borlaug said in his acceptance speech for the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970. "[Man] is using his powers for increasing the rate and amount of food production. But he is not yet using adequately his potential for decreasing the rate of human reproduction. The result is that the rate of population increase exceeds the rate of increase in food production in some areas."

For the healthy perspective:...."ultimately, a little change in diet might do a world of good. Global demand for beef is an inefficient way to get protein, possibly unhealthy, and a major driver of deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions. "

Antarctica Update

Since our last Osher class of Earth and Its Climate in 2031 included a lot of material on the Antarctic, I thought the above title link might be of interest. Satellite technology certainly has done so much to help us visual learners.

For another visual feast, see The Canyon.

Warming Climate and Smaller Species

My first reaction was disbelief, but then after reading the article, I now wonder if the relationship may indeed be true. The cause and effect is made primarily through changes in weather, with less rainfall occurring in many parts of the world, leading to smaller plant species, followed by smaller herbivores, followed by smaller carnivores. Shrinking species size is supported by fossil records from times when the Earth warmed.

From the NY Times linked article: "Dr. Bickford said the paper was intended as an non-alarmist appeal to the world’s ecologists to take notice. “No matter what else they’re doing in the field, we want more ecologists to pay attention to body size and take these measurements,” he explained."

CO2 and Global Temperature Long Term Relationship

If you too wonder why Co2 spikes lag temperature spikes by several hundred years, read the following and see the title link from which these quotes came:

"What is being talked about here is influence of the seasonal radiative forcing change from the earth’s wobble around the sun (the well established Milankovitch theory of ice ages), combined with the positive feedback of ice sheet albedo (less ice = less reflection of sunlight = warmer temperatures) and greenhouse gas concentrations (higher temperatures lead to more CO₂ leads to warmer temperatures)......... CO₂ might well be expected to lag temperature by about 1000 years, which is the timescale we expect from changes in ocean circulation and the strength of the “carbon pump” (i.e. marine biological photosynthesis) that transfers carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean."

For additional information from the IPCC.

Earth and Its Climate in 2031

Following is the schedule and plans for the fall 2011 Class with the above title at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute at the University of Delaware in Lewes:

This will be a workshop style course with participants contributing their ideas. In the first class, Bill will present where he thinks the Earth’s climate will be in 2031 relative to rising sea levels. We will then discuss class interests relative to the Earth and its climate. In this fall’s 5 classes we will focus on what is taking place, and what is forecast to happen relative to Earth’s climate. Next spring, in a planned continuation of this course, we will discuss what can be done to reduce global warming, through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and through potential geoengineering approaches.

Oct 17 – Sea Level Rise
The focus of the first class will be the causes of sea level rise, how it is measured, what the known history is, and what the forecast is. The class will begin with a 45 min. presentation, the same as will be presented to the Friends of Overfalls on Oct 14 (mentioned so you don’t attend both presentations). After that, we will discuss what specific climate topics most interest the class, and finalize a tentative agenda for the remaining 4 weeks (Oct 24, Oct 31, Nov 7 and Nov 14).

Potential future class topics include, but are not limited to:
1. A hypothetical vision of a warmer Earth in 2031 (and 2100?) relative to:
    a. sea level rise (continued with thoughts from others in the class)
    b. agriculture changes and feeding a growing world
    c. population changes and climate refugees
    d. wildlife changes, on land and in the oceans
2. The role of forests in global warming
3. Tipping points, what are they and how likely is one to occur?
4. Also see index in this blog for more ideas about possible topics.

Bill Fintel
Instructor

Deep Oceans and Global Warming

"The planet’s deep oceans at times may absorb enough heat to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade even in the midst of longer-term warming, according to a new analysis led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)."

This new study includes very little actual data because there are very few measurements of deep (below 300 m) ocean temperatures. Its conclusions are based largely on sophisticated computer simulations:

"To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model’s ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The two scientists, who are coauthors on the new study, suggested that the oceans might be storing some of the heat that would otherwise go toward other processes, such as warming the atmosphere or land, or melting more ice and snow."

“This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean,” Trenberth says. “The heat has not disappeared, and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences."

The Climate Significence of Forests

Trees absorb a great deal of atmospheric CO2 as they grow, but they also release a great deal when fallen leaves and dead trees decay. The net balance has been difficult to determine, but recently more accurate measurements show that the net CO2 absorption of all forests world wide is equal to approximately one quarter of all CO2 emitted by man. Thus forests are presently playing a major role in slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2.

One of the biggest concerns relative to forests is that they are coming under increasing stress due to a warmer and drier climate. In the southwest, this has been evident as major forests fires this past summer. In the Rockies and Canada pine bark beetles, no longer killed back by cold winters, have been devasting large tracks of evergreen forests. In the Amazon region, there have been two major droughts with many large trees dying.

The linked article by Justin Gillis in the NY Times provides an excellent detailed review of the role of forests, and the perils they face. On the bright side, Eastern US forests are doing very well, and even growing more rapidly than they used to due higher CO2 levels and longer growing seasons.

Solyndra Collapse

Perhaps you were as astounded by this recent headline story as I was. A good thorough description of what transpired can be found at the title link to an LA Times article.

It looks like there were multiple factors involved, such as over-exuberance for solar power, and a dramatic fall in the price of high grade silicon which is used in competing flat solar panels.

2011 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Depending on your source, 2011 was either the 2nd lowest arctic sea ice extent, or the lowest. The title link is to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Their satellite sensor, and the algorithms they use, show minimum sea ice extent for 2011 was 2nd to the all time minimum observed in 2007.

The University of Bremen uses a different sensor, on a different satellite, as well as different algorithms, and their analysis shows 2011 to be the lowest sea ice extent ever measured.

In a broader view, both these analyses show a consistent trend in loss of arctic sea ice since satellite measurements began in 1972. Current minimum sea ice extent is only 50% of what it was in 1972. Other data show that ice thickness is also decreasing.

Additional details from the University of Bremen study can be found in the press release link at their web site. From this press release: "Climate models show rather that the reduction is related to the man-made global warming which, due to the ice albedo effect, is particularly pronounced in the Arctic: an ice area melted by a small temperature increase will then as open water have a much darker surface, absorb more solar radiation than before, which causes additional heating.......

The ice maps of the University of Bremen show also that in this year, the Northwest and Northeast passages are ice free simultaneously (Figure 2). This had happed for the first time in 2008, and in 2009 the German shipping company Beluga has traveled it commercially for the first time."

Extreme Weather and Global Warming

Above photo from Inhabitat.com article about Hurricane Irene.

Extreme weather and global warming is a very controversial topic! But a topic worth thinking about, and studying, because the underlying science supports a link between the two. As the Earth warms, which essentially all climate science data supports is happening, more energy is present in the atmosphere, primarily in the form of water vapor, but also in the form of higher air temperatures. Water vapor is most significant, because as water vapor condenses, it releases its latent heat of evaporation, which then provides the energy that fuels major storm systems, such as hurricanes.

The title link and photo link provide additional perspectives on this relationship. Also note that it is integrated weather which defines climate and climate change, so it is not justified to attribute a single storm event to global warming. But a history of many more major storm events, can be ascribed to global warming with reasonable scientific certainty.

Earth's Energy Balance

The title link is to a NASA Earth Observatory page which discusses the July heat wave in the U.S. The article also provides some relatively easy to understand details about Earth's energy balance, and is conveniently summarized in the next-to-last paragraph:

"The temperature on any planet, including Earth, is controlled by energy from the Sun. The Sun provides an average 340 Watts per square meter to the Earth. That energy returns to space as either reflected energy or radiated heat. Over time, the total outgoing energy should equal the amount of energy coming in from the Sun. When incoming and outgoing energy don’t balance, Earth’s temperature will change until balance is restored."

Please note that it is easy to subscribe to postings from  NASA Earth Observatory on the linked page.

Earth and Its Climate in 2031

Perhaps you are checking this Blog because of the new Osher catalog for fall 2011.

If yes, I heartily welcome you, and please accept my apology for me being behind on posting about current climate events. I have been very busy, and will continue to be very busy until early September, but then a major portion of my attention will focus on this Blog and the Osher class “Earth and Its Climate in 2031” .

If this subject interests you, in addition to reviewing past posts on this blog, you may also want to review the web site finblizclimate for some background information on climate change, the science behind what has been happening, and some of the earth changes that are predicted, such as rising sea level.

New Study on Sea Level Rise - Gloomier than ever

The linked study led by the University of Arizona predicts sea levels could rise by as much as a meter by 2100. This "would be enough to flood 90 percent of New Orleans, 33 percent of Virginia Beach, Va., and 18 percent of Miami, according to scientists."

The UA research focused on warmer oceans leading to faster glacial melting in Greenland and Antarctica. They also point out that at some point the melting becomes irreversible, even if we manage to reduce greenhouse gas emissions dramatically (which is unlikely to happen any time soon).

Burning more coal slows down global warming

The title does not seem to match today's science, but read the link and you will see it has a plausible scientific basis. In a nutshell, China doubled its coal burning from 2002 to 2007, and this has been in low tech coal fired power plants which emitted lots of sulfate aerosols. These in turn have reflected back into space a significant portion of the sun's energy. The net result is that the Earth's temperature has increased very little in the last decade.

Now the Chinese do know sulfate aerosols are harmful to people and the environment, so they are working to clean up their power plants. Unfortunately the increased CO2 emitted by these plants will remain in the atmosphere for decades, so when the sulfate aerosol emissions are reduced, global warming will most likely rebound.

The article also points to a role of El Nino in transferring heat from the oceans to the atmosphere. A strong El Nino in 1998 made for a hot year, which then affects how subsequent years are perceived in terms of warming trends.

What You and Others Think About Climate Change

"Scientific Agreement: While approximately 97% of publishing climate scientists agree that climate change is occurring and that it is caused primarily by human activities, this high level of scientific agreement is understood by only 44 percent of the Alarmed, 18 percent of the Concerned, 12 percent of theCautious, and 5 percent or fewer of the Disengaged, Doubtful and Dismissive." Andrew Revkin

Sea Level Rise and the Pine Island Glacier

The title link is to an article about the Pine Island glacier in West Antarctica which based on 2009 studies is loosing ice mass 1.5x as fast as it was in 1994. The cause is not simply ocean warming, but rather a reduction in grounding of the glacier on the land below it so that warm water is getting up under the glacier enabling the land based portion to slide into the ocean at a faster rate.

This mechanism has the potential to continue to accelerate leading to a faster rise in sea level than has been predicted. A more detailed review of this study can be found at Science_MSNBC.

VERGE

This is a very short post about VERGE, a concept and program that sound's very good and very timely as regards sustainability and the environment. RE the latter, below is a photo of a female Ruby-throated Hummingbird on her nest very near to where I live, and which I and friends are protecting from disturbance, that is, we are protecting her small breeding environment.

Geoengineering - Brightening Ocean Clouds

From Mark Guenther's title-linked post: "Marine cloud brightening is one way to manage solar radiation; others include injecting sulfate particles into the stratosphere. [See my 2010 post, Geoengineering research, getting real]  Marine clouds cover roughly one-fifth of the earth’s surface, Latham told me, and they already play a role in keeping the earth cooler by reflecting the sun’s rays away from earth. If their surface area could be enlarge, they would be even stronger cooling agents."

John Latham is the scientist who first proposed this approach, and at 73, he is still very actively pursuing it. "Latham says his group has in mind a three-day experiment conducted over an area of about 100 square kilometers. Because of its limited size and scope, it would not affect the global climate, he said. It’s entirely unclear who, if anyone, has the authority to regulate such an experiment. And, in any event, Latham said his group won’t be ready to go forward for several years."

What, Latham was asked, needs to happen to get the U.S. Congress to take the climate crisis seriously?
“Major flooding in New York would probably focus the right attention,” he replied. “I don’t mean to be cynical about that. But Bangladesh could go under with a billion people, and I’m not sure that would provoke the wealthy countries to act.”

Cities and Climate Change, Enter the C40

From the NY Times title link: "It was six years ago when Mr. Clinton, working with Ken Livingstone, the leftist and then-mayor of London, drew together officials from 40 of the world’s largest cities, from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to Yokohama, Japan, to share ideas for reducing carbon emissions and dealing with the inevitable impacts of a changing climate........

Cities now house more than half of the world’s population, and while they occupy 2 percent of the globe’s land mass, cities consume 70 percent of global energy and produce 70 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. If anything meaningful is going to happen on climate in the short term, Mr. Clinton, Mr. Bloomberg and their advisers say, it has to start in the cities."

Those impressive figures come from the C40 Cities organization, strongly supported  by a joint effort of Clinton and  Bloomberg to tackle climate change by focusing on the large cities of the world.

“We are putting a stake in the ground around the idea that national and international governments have failed, possibly quite permanently, or at least in a way that they will not make any serious progress before it’s too late,” said Kevin Sheekey, a former deputy mayor of New York and principal political adviser to Mr. Bloomberg. “If you address the problems of the cities, there will be no need for China and India to sign onto some international accord. And thank God, because that’s not going to get done. It’s time to say it.”

The C40 has its next meeting in Sao Paulo Brazil, May 31 to June 2.

Access to Family Planning and Saving the Earth

On Marc Guenther's Blog, he presented the following quote from Ted Turner, of CNN fame:

Food, population and women: “What really concerns me is if we go to 8 or 9 billion. The natural world is collapsing all around us. There are two things we can do that won’t cost a lot of money… Millions of women don’t have access to family planning. If you provide people with  family planning, they won’t have unwanted pregnancies and they won’t have to  have abortions. The second thing we could do and we should have done it a long time ago is half the women in the world don’t have equal rights with men. In the Arab world, people are treated like dogs. They can’t vote in Saudia Arabia. They can’t drive a car. They don’t get an education. Women need to have equal rights with men, and equal education and equal rights to a job, and when women have that, they will choose to have smaller families.”

I have been a supporter of Population Connection (formerly Zero Population Growth) for a long time, and that is certainly what they advocate. A couple more quotes by Ted Turner, that will hopefully inspire you to read the title link:

The defeat of climate bill: “It’s going to go down in history as one of the great tragedies that we’ve ever had.”

Energy poverty: Rich countries should get together to help the two billion people in the world who don’t have access to electricity. “Why not give everyone in the world who doesn’t have electricity a solar panel and a light bulb so their kids can do their homework?”

The Skeptics Side

For the sake of objective presentation...and a few laughs, I wanted point out James Taylor's blog post in Forbes (title link) concerning the recent report from the National Acadeny of Scienes titled America's Climate Choices. If you read the post, also be sure to read the comments by David, as they provide an excellent counter perspective. Or you can make your own assessment of the credentials of the report's authors.

Also see NOAA's comments and the Reuters article by Elizabeth McGowan, Climate Study Congress Requested Falls on Deaf Ears in the Capitol. From this article:

"WASHINGTON—Ho hum.
The average air temperature in the United States has leapt two degrees in the last five decades. Yawn. Coastal regions in the country are disappearing because of rising sea levels. Hit the snooze button. The already-arid Southwest is becoming drier. Snore.......
"If members of Congress challenge the assertions in the report, they should hold hearings," Bledsoe (climate change specialist with the Bipartisan Policy Center) said. "If they believe and accept what's in it, they should hold hearings. One way or another they should deal with it," he concluded. "I don't see how they can ignore it." "

Shrimp Farming and the Environment

My daughter never eats shrimp because of the negative impact so many shrimp operations have on the environment. These negative impacts range from cutting down mangrove forests, to the effluent pollution from poorly operated shrimp farms. In the title link you can learn that these negative impacts  are not inevitable, and that shrimp can be farmed in an environmentally sound manner. The link includes a 16 minute video about Linda Thornton, a major pioneer in these efforts. This video also covers some details about the shrimp farming techniques developed and employed on three shrimp farms in Belize.

There is still a lot of work ahead to get these techniques learned and practiced around the world, but organizations such as the World Wildlife Fund are helping make this happen, and are also developing certification techniques for shrimp raised on environmentally sustainable shrimp farms.

Will we resort to geoengineering in 2031?

"After decades of global warming, the summer sea ice in the Arctic has vanished entirely, opening up new trade routes and vast oil and gas reserves in the Far North. China and the Pacific Rim nations, meanwhile, are enduring ever-worsening repercussions of climate change: volatile storms, food riots, and rising sea levels that displace millions of people. Suddenly.......some countries say, ‘Screw it. We have to cool this down.’  How? A bloc of Asian nations underwrites an aggressive geoengineering effort that uses specially designed aircraft to disperse thousands of tonnes of sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere."

This is a hypothetical scenario by Jason Blackstock, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation in Waterloo, Ontario. It is contained in the title link article by John Lorinc in The Walrus. This article presents a fascinating overview of geoengineering (aka Plan B), and makes a compelling case for  at very least for discussing it in international forums:

"At this stage, [David] Keith says, a formal policy debate is certainly more important than coming up with rules. He feels there needs to be 'a lot of talk, because for so many people this is so new. [We] need a venue to allow a lot of people to express a lot of opinions, including those that say geoengineering is stupid and should be banned.'

Perhaps, Keith notes, the prospect of governments or private entities deploying these fantastically potent technologies will stir people to focus more energy on finding ways to make Plan A work."

Anatomy of a Disastrous Tornado Weather System

NASA Photo

First off, I am not saying the recent tornado outbreak is climate change related. It could be, but for now I will just focus on the amazing satellite video footage of this recent major storm system that devastated much of the southeastern US. On the title link, at very least I recommend you view the "small animation" to see what looks like a wildfire sweeping the southern states. But it is not a fire, it is simply cold air interacting with warm-moist air. Both are feeding into the front....as logic would require to sustain this storm system for more than a day. From NASA:

"The animation starts on April 26 and runs through the morning of April 28. The ingredients for severe weather are evident in the cloud patterns. A relatively stable mass of cold air—visible as a swirl of more-or-less continuous clouds—rotates in the north along the top of the image. Meanwhile, moist air pushes north and west from the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. The warm air contains small low clouds.

The collision between two such air masses is enough to generate severe weather, but the weather also was amplified by the jet stream on April 27. Though not directly visible in the image, the narrow band of fast-moving wind blew north and east between the two air masses. With surface winds blowing from the south and east, and the jet stream blowing from the west, powerful smaller-scale circulation patterns generated lines of intense thunderstorms."

The GOES satellite that took these videos is a joint NASA-NOAA geostationary satellite that stays over one point of the earth.

Penguins, Humpbacks and Antarctic Changes

Adelie Penguin, Antarctica, photo by Bill Fintel

Adelie Penguins feed primarily on krill. Krill depend on sea ice to assist in growing their phytoplankton food. Hence, as sea ice coverage shrinks, Adelies are having less success raising their young. From the title link:

"Krill form the basis of the marine food web, supporting organisms ranging from fish and penguins to whales. Krill feed on phytoplankton -- basically, ice algae -- that grow lushly on the undersides of ice floes.

These tiny crustaceans are specially adapted to graze for the tiny plants among the ice crystals. But in the last few decades, winter ice has formed later in the season and has covered less area and spring melt comes earlier. Without ice, krill's feeding is disrupted and populations fall."

This change in seasonal sea ice coverage has also affected Humpback Whales, temporarily for the better, but probably not for their long term good. See: Whale of a find: Krill feast in Antarctica

Keeping track of our Earth in detail via satellites, is truly amazing. For Arctic and Antarctic ice mass monitoring, thank GRACE.

Humpback Whale, Antarctica, photo by Bill Fintel

Can the Barramundi help feed 7+ Billion People?

As has been proven time and time again, hungry people are not peaceful subjects of any country. Hungry people create unrest anywhere in the world. So averting hunger is certainly a number one priority of mankind.........if we are to live together in any sort of harmony, and care about our neighbors.

Swim forward the Baramundi, aka Asian sea bass. A fish selected as preferred for fish farming out of over 40 candidate species. Why did it come out on top? Because it is healthy with high levels of Omega-3 fatty acids, it reportedly tastes good, it does not need a lot of other seafood as its food, and its waste waters are unlikely to cause environmental problems.

Read the title link for details. I will report on it again after I have eaten some. For more about its life cycle, food preferences, a recipe...and why it makes sense to aquaculture, click Eating Jellyfish.

BP/Horizon Closed Waters Re-opened to Fishing 4/19/11

From NOAA: "Effective April 19, 2011 at 6 p.m. eastern time (5 p.m. central time), NOAA will reopen the last 1,041 square miles (2,697 sq km) of area previously closed to commercial and recreational fishing in the Gulf of Mexico in response to the BP/Deepwater Horizon oil spill. All areas of federal waters previously closed to fishing because of the oil spill are now open. Other federal closed areas, such as marine protected areas, remain in effect.....

NOAA analyzed 85 finfish samples for sensory analysis and 112 finfish samples in 25 composites for chemical analysis, including commercially and recreationally important species, such as swordfish tuna, and escolar. Sensory testing showed no detectable oil or dispersant odors or flavors in the samples, and the results of chemical analysis were well below levels of concern for oil. Additionally, the composite samples used for the chemical analysis were subjected to a dispersant test developed by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and NOAA as an added precaution. The test detects a major component of the dispersants used during the spill response known as DOSS. No DOSS was detected in the samples or DOSS was found at levels well below the level of concern to protect public health."

This certainly seems like a positive event considering the magnitude of the spill. Full details are available on the title link. Relationship to climate? Minimal, other than fossil fuels get a very small reprieve from their horrible press concerning this event. Why was this event not as bad as the Exxon Valdez Alaska oil spill? Because Gulf of Mexico microbes were already attuned to eat oil seepage from the Gulf floor.

Aneutronic Fusion

Aneutronic fusion is fusion that takes place without generating any neutrons. This is desirable because high energy neutrons make material they interact with radioactive. One of the most studied aneutronic fusion reactions is one proton (hydrogen nucleus) reacting with one Boron-11 nucleus to create 3 Helium nuclei and a great deal of energy. The title link takes you to a page on the the Focus Fusion web site with an excellent animation of this reaction.

If you like what you see, you then can spend many more days studying Focus Fusion's approach, technology, and tests results to date. One of the more intriguing aspects of this approach is that high energy Helium nuclei generated by a proton-B11 fusion reaction are positively charged, and can thus be directly converted to electricity, bypassing the heat-to-steam cycle of coal and conventional nuclear power plants.

Why have I presented this topic in a Climate Blog? Because this technology does not generate any CO2 or other greenhouse gases, and it has the potential to become a major source of power generation, although that is seemingly quite far away at present.

US Gov Key Climate Indicators

This is an update of US Gov links to global climate data. There is NO title link, because all links are in the below table:

NASA
NOAA
NOAA - Lewes sea level

Note the Greenland and Antarctic land ice mass data on the NASA site, and the sun's energy output and ocean heat content on the NOAA site. This is good supporting information, which often is not quoted.

In a nutshell, if land ice disappears, it went into the ocean and will contribute to sea level rise. If the sun's energy output changes, it will have an effect on global temperature. If the oceans warm, they will expand causing sea level rise, plus this is one more indicator the world is warming.

Lewes (DE) sea level is presented because many followers of this blog live in or near Lewes.

My apologies for letting this blog get behind in updating, but I have been away.

Big Coal, Plan B, and Geoengineering

"The future of electricity?" Marc Gunther in his blog (title link) reports it will be more of the same, based on a recent meeting of CEO's from major electricity producing companies.

"Natural gas is the cheap fossil fuel of choice. Coal will be burned for as long as there is coal. The federal government will never–never–have a comprehensive energy policy.......Climate crisis? What climate crisis?"

In comparison, Lester R. Brown, in his book Plan B 4.0, presents a strategy for "a massive wartime-like mobilization" with the following four goals: "stabilizing climate, stabilizing population, eradicating poverty and restoring the economy's natural supports systems - all essential to restoring food security." (p.242).

Now clearly the CEO's and Lester brown have differing viewpoints. And perhaps this is how geoengineering, currently a back-up plan of last resort, will come to the forefront.......at a time when climate change is causing so many hardships that we must do something, and it is too late to reduce CO2 emissions and have any immediate beneficial effects......a time when huge numbers of people are starving due to drought, crop failures, climate shifts, fertile land becoming desert.......and lets not forget overpopulation!

CO2 - The MOST Important Greenhouse Gas

As far as greenhouse gases go, CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas needing to be controlled because of the huge quantities of it being emitted, AND because of its long life in the atmosphere. Yes methane is far more potent a greenhouse gas, but it is short-lived in the atmosphere, as it naturally oxidizes to CO2 and water vapor. Ozone and soot are two other culprits in global warming, but they too are short-lived. For an excellent summary of this subject, see the title link (excerpt follows):

"Given the recent push on other substances, many of the scientists most deeply immersed in charted human-driven heating of the planet have become increasingly concerned that carbon dioxide’s primacy is under-appreciated.

This group includes Susan Solomon, the federal climate scientist  who led the 2007 science review by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,  Kenneth Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution and Stanford University and Raymond T. Pierrehumbert of the University of Chicago and (on occasion) Realclimate.org."

....and from Pierrehumbert in the linked article:
"Every year that action on CO2 emissions is delayed is another year that CO2 emissions continue to grow unabated, and each passing year inexorably ratchets up the warming to which the Earth is committed. In contrast, reducing emissions of a short-lived forcing like soot or methane will have almost exactly the same climate benefit a hundred years from now as it would if done immediately."

A Smart Grid - What is it?

The title link is to a short PBS video about Smart Grids, how they work, and why they make so much sense from an energy conservation perspective. Of course energy conservation equates to lower carbon emissions. At the end of the video is a segment on how Italy is already most of the way to a smart grid.

Sen. Carper Votes in Favor of Climate Science

The title link is to a very interesting and gratifying speech by Senator Carper. As most of you who follow this blog are Delawareans with interests in climate change and climate science, I thought you might like to view this 8 minute video of a speech he made on the Senate floor.

The lead in to the video is: "June 10, 2010 - Listen to Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) speak on the U.S. Senate floor against Senator Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) legislation that would have prevented the U.S. EPA from regulating harmful air pollution under the Clean Air Act. The legislation, S. J. RES. 26, was defeated by a vote of 47 to 53."

Also, as you are probably aware, there is new legislation in the works to take away the EPA's power to regulate pollution 'that only degrades the climate on Earth' (my quotes).

Tipping Point in the Making???

Arctic sea ice is now at its lowest WINTER extent in satellite recorded history. This means there is more dark ocean to absorb solar radiation, and less sea ice to reflect solar radiation back into space. Will this lead to the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever by the end of summer 2011?

Additionally, will this continue on for several years of positive feed-backs to become a major climate change tipping point? It certainly seems to have that potential.

For a Washington Post report on this winter sea ice reduction, click here. The Post article also covers the effects on Polar Bears, such as a significant reduction in body weight since 1980, because the bears have had to spend more time hunting on land, which is less productive than hunting on sea ice.

The EPA, CO2 Regulation and Climate Change

"Was the Clean air act intended to cover CO2?" This is a hugely complicated and hotly contested issue, but the title link to a ScienceInsider article by Eli Kintisch does a very nice job at clarifying the differing positions. Most interesting to me is that when the Clean Air Act of 1970 was being considered, climate effects due to pollutants were part of the considerations. From the article:

"There’s evidence that during the drafting of the act and its subsequent amendments that climate was one of the dangers Congress was thinking about. In 1970, as mentioned here, Senator Caleb Boggs (R-DE) said during debate on the law that “Air pollution alters climate and may produce global changes in temperature.” As laid out here, in 1977 a report by the House that accompanied an update to the law mentioned “possible weather and climate modifications” among the risks to particulate matter it was seeking to regulate."

As a side note, Eli Kintisch is author of the book, HACK THE PLANET. This is a book about geoengineering, which as he puts it, may be "Science's best hope - or worst nightmare - for averting climate catastrophe". Future posts on this blog will explore some of his thought provoking entries in this excellent book.

Stormier Weather, Evidence Mounting, Yasi Approaching Queensland

It may be decades before the evidence is conclusive, but the evidence that global warming (a measured fact) is causing more severe weather events certainly seems to be mounting. As of 2/1/11, poised just off Queensland, Australia, is Category 4 tropical cyclone Yasi.

"In a globally warmed world, the saying will be rewritten:  When it rains, it deluges. The warmest sea surface temperatures in Australian records have been fueling floods called ‘biblical’ — floods covering an area “the size of France and Germany combined.” ABC News has explained “Raging Waters In Australia and Brazil Product of Global Warming."

Queensland faces the threats of torrential rains, highly destructive winds up to 140 mph, and a tidal surge of up to 10 feet as Yasi comes ashore sometime Feb 2.

At the bottom of the article are many other links related to the probable connection between recent severe weather events and global warming.