2009 Climate Scorecard

More than 300 scientists from 48 countries have compiled the annual State of the Climate Report for 2009. Everyone of 10 key indicators confirms that the Earth is warming. The above link takes you to a NOAA site where you can download either the full 218 page report, or a 10 page summary report, as I chose.

What the report does not do is assess the cause of this warming trend. However, it does deal with some of the consequences, such as more severe weather, and it attempts to quantify them.

I definitely recommend at least the summary report. Also informative are the interactive graphs available at the title link under "Do It Yourself: Key Climate Indicators". A sample of these is this link to sea level rise, my preferred indicator.

Clouds & Global Warming

We all know that clouds play an important role in determining weather as well as past and future climate. This is due to the absoptive and reflective nature of the water vapor. The clouds capture and then release the solar radiation from the Sun and infrared radiation from the surface of the Earth. Due to the ever-changing cloud formation, the contained amount of moisture, the height of the cloud formation, temperature, as well as the droplet size, this energy transfer mechanism is very complicated, making their effect on global warming difficult to model. This link to a NASA Earth Observatory article will hopefully add a bit of clarity to this phenomena.

Refining Climate History

You probably recall climate history charts of temperature and CO2 appear to show that rises in global temperature preceded rises in atmospheric CO2. This seems to be counter to today's theories that rising CO2 concentrations will cause a rise in global temperature, and thus provides fuel for the skeptics arguments against linking current rising CO2 levels to future global warming.

The title link to a Wall Street Journal article addresses this and details a new ice core effort in Antarctica aimed at refining  historical data to better clarify the relationship between global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The main questions with past data arise from proxy results for temperature, and with ice core dating. This new study aims to use oxygen isotope measurements to deduce global temperature (not new, but apparently being done in a more refined way), and adds several techniques for deducing ice core age. Additionally, the drilling location is in an area with heavier snowfall, so the ice core layers are better separated.

The above photo shows back-lit ice layers and is from an expanded link in the WSJ article.

Forest Preservation, a big step forward.....REDD Plus

Forrest Dweller, Papua New Guinea

Oslo, Norway: $4 Billion has been pledged by wealthy nations to assist poor nations in preserving their forests. What is so encouraging about this step, is that wildlife will definitely benefit, regardless of how much impact it has on global warming.

As with most aid programs, the real difficulty will come with implementation, with making sure the funds are really effective in reducing forest destruction. "An agency monitoring the aid will be up and running before U.N. climate talks start in Cancun, Mexico, later this year...

The new monitoring agency would oversee individual agreements between countries to fight deforestation and educate local populations who live off forests — estimated at more than 1 billion worldwide — to do so in a sustainable way."

REDD Plus =  Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (title link is now UN-REDD)

Evapotranspiration and climate change

Evapotranspiration relates to plant physiology, and the latest on what it means for climate change is that with 2x CO2 levels, plants evaporate less water, and hence contribute less to cooling the earth than they used to, 25% less in the North America and Asia, according to the linked article. This was totally new to me, so I thought you might also find it new and interesting.

I have been working on a Himalayan post since returning from Bhutan, but it has turned out to be more complicated than anticipated, and spring bird migration/classes have also been consuming my time. Thanks to Bo and Gordon for keeping posts going while I was away. Bill

2008 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The EPA reports U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 were equivalent to 6957 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, 2.9 percent lower than in 2007 but still 13.5 pecent higher than in 1990.

NASA Study Finds Atlantic 'Conveyor Belt' Not Slowing

New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps to regulate climate in the North Atlantic region, show that no significant slowing has occurred over the past 15 years. The data shows that the circulation may have even sped up slightly in recent years.

The latest climate models predict that this conveyor belt should indeed slow down as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds fresh water to the ocean. The recent NASA study indicates that the observed overturning strength is most likely due to natural cycle changes. It would appear that any suggestion of an impending ice age in northern high latitudes due to greatly reduced tropical ocean water heat transfer is premature.

The rather sudden slowdown in the conveyor belt current 12,000 years ago, which led to a reversal of the warming trend since the end of the last ice age, was at a period of much colder climate. "Models of today's warmer conditions suggest that a slowdown would have a much smaller impact." This is not to say that the Atlantic overturning circulation doesn't play a significant role in today's climate.

The clouds of unknowing

The March 20th, 2010 edition of the Economist magazine gives a briefing on The science of climate change. They cover the uncertainties of the IPCC modeling but conclude:

" The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction."

Tropical Cyclones Thomas and Ului

The above link is to a composite NASA satellite image of both of these cyclones on March 15. The destruction done by Thomas is still unfolding, but if you have not already read about it, here is the latest AP report. Are these cyclones more severe because of global warming? Probably only history will tell.

Antarctica: Mertz Glacier/Iceberg update

 

To see a full size image, click on photo......and remember, you are viewing icebergs approximately the size of Rhode Island.

Delaware: 30% Renewable by 2029

From DelawareOnline: "Gov. Jack Markell on Wednesday proposed a 10-year extension of a Delaware law that requires utilities to buy electric power from renewable sources, seeking to spur green manufacturing and help residents afford small-scale solar installations.

Under the proposal, every electric utility in the state would need to buy 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources such as solar or wind power by 2029. That's an increase from current law, which requires 20 percent by 2019."