"Wake Up, Freak Out"... RE Tipping Points

This short video is on the agenda for our Osher Climate Class 11/14, but I recommend watching it more than once (I am up to 3x). It really cuts through to the fundamentals of tipping points so succinctly.

Alaskan "Hurricane"

A rare and powerful storm has been buffeting Alaska. For a satellite photo and storm details see the title link. Global warming a factor???

Sea Level Rise and South Florida

The title link is to an article in the Ledger from Lakeland Florida, and provides some first hand insight into what is expected in in the Miami area, and the Everglades. A couple of paragraphs from the article:

"If things continue as predicted, the bottom floors of the hotel where we were meeting would be part of Biscayne Bay — well offshore in Biscayne Bay — by the turn of the century.

And even the parts of Dade County that aren't underwater will be uninhabitable because the rising sea level will have made much of the Biscayne Aquifer, the shallow aquifer that supplies drinking water in this part of Florida, too salty to drink."

Monitoring Instantaneous Sea Level, aka Tide Level

The title link provides a plot of water levels at the Brandywine Light monitoring station in the center of the DE Bay off of Prime Hook Beach. The above plot is from that station showing the water level peaked at approximately 8.3 feet on October 29, 2011.

Due to the dunes north of Prime Hook Beach having been repeatedly washed out by several storms over the past few years, Prime Hook Road was approximately 1.5 feet under water at the worst on Oct 29. This exceptionally high tide was due to a strong Nor'easter and 'spring' tide conditions (new moon plus moon close to earth). Fortunately the current Nor'easter is occurring with the moon at about 1/2 full, so the tides for Nov 5 have only peaked at a little under 6 feet.

Climate Refugees - Osher Class 3 - Updated 11/2

Update:
The book David Weber referred to and summarized  was:
"The coming population crash and our planet's surprising future"

by Fred Pearce.  It can be found in the Lewes public library.

Original Post:
Below are the links used in the class on Oct 31, 2011.

Newtok, Alaska, Town of 350 relocates to higher ground.

Cateret Islands map, and trailer  for "Sun Comes Up" about their relocation attempts.

Article from Financial Times about 'environmental migration'. Also see Oct 24 post in this blog.

Climate refugees in 2050, link to International Organization for Migration page on 'Migration and Climate Change' (see paragraph 3).

Link to movie, "Climate Refugees". Link to 2 trailers is at top of their page. We watched 1/2 of trailer #2. This site also contains the 'Take Action' page with 11 tips we reviewed.

Climate Change Vulnerability Index by Maplecroft.

The most and the least vulnerable countries, from USA Today.

Below, photo of Haiti, the most vulnerable country, from Hispanically Speaking News, June 13, 2011.

Polar Orbiting Climate Satellite Launch - NPP

This was brought out in our Osher Climate Class today, so above is the title link to the NASA page with a great deal of information about instruments, objectives, etc. It is the latest satellite in the Earth Observing System which began about 10 years ago. The NPP launch was Fri, 10/28/2011.

For those of us with grand children, there is also a NPPy page with information for kids, including a video animation with NPPy the baby Polar Bear and his mom.

How Warm Will Earth Get?

Bottom line, if, or should I say when, Earth's CO2 concentration doubles, the expected warming will be about 3 degrees C. See the linked Washington Post blog of Ezra Klein for the sources of this figure, as well as an excellent summary of the mechanisms behind global warming.

These sources, from recent climate data, to climate models, to paleoclimate data, also indicate that the range of expected temperature increase is anywhere from 1 deg C .........to 8.5 deg C.

Environmemtal Migration, aka Climigration

The title linked article was brought into class today by Bo French. It presents an in depth perspective about some of the details of 'environmental migration'. A quote from the Financial Times article:

"Global environmental change is likely to reduce the ability of many people to migrate and therefore will “in some circumstances reduce migration per se”, the report said. “These ‘trapped’ or ‘immobile’ populations are hidden from high-level estimates yet they represent a policy concern just as serious as, if not more serious than, migration.” "

As I read this quote, the people who can not afford to migrate, will face death by starving or drowning or?

On the positive side:
"Migration can not only remove people from environmental danger but also provide new sources of income to help mitigate climate change. Remittances from migrants to families in low-income countries exceed $300bn a year, nearly three times the value of overseas aid."

Sustainable Agriculture

The title link is to the NY Times Blog by Andrew Revkin which contains a link to the excellent video, "The Other Inconvenient Truth", featuring Jonathan Foley.

Some other links used in today's class are:
Skeptic Talking Points Melt Away
NASA On-line Videos
Agriculture and population maps of the world
Nationmaster map and statistics source for countries of the world

Earth Has Warmed 1.8 deg F Since 1950

"Richard Muller, a noted Berkeley physicist who’s been a strident critic of climate campaigners, has released a much-anticipated new package of studies....You can find Muller’s materials at Berkeleyearth.org.....The core finding is that temperatures over the continents have warmed about 1 degree Centigrade (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1950.."

Earth and Its Climate in 2031 (Osher class title)

Following is the agenda for the next 4 classes of this Osher Lifelong Learning Course at the University of Delaware in Lewes, DE. The overall question to be addressed: "What will the Earth be like in 2031 in regard to the following subjects?"

October 24 - Global weather changes, and the effect on agriculture, potable water and feeding a growing world.

October 31 - Geographic population shifts and climate refugees.

November 7 - Wildlife and vegetation changes, plus the role of forests.

November 14 - Tipping points, what are the most troublesome ones, and how likely are they to occur?