Some Science Behind the Recent NE Blizzard

The title link is to a NY Times blog article by Andrew Revkin. In it he cites work by Judah Cohen, a weather analyst who has been studying the relationship between Oct snow cover in Siberia with winter severity in the NE US and Europe.

It is all rather complicated, but in Cohen's defense, he makes predictions based on his theory. He has also looked at past weather patterns versus Siberian snow cover and states his theory offers a better explanation for what has happened versus the theories of others. Also see Cohen's comments to Revkins post.

There are a lot of links in Revkin's post, but be sure you watch the short video on how to differentiate weather from climate.

Geoengineering with Nanoparticles

The linked article by Andrew Maynard provides a fascinating overview of how incoming sunlight might be reduced using specially designed nanodiscs dispersed in the upper atmosphere. The idea is described in detail by David Keith in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

The abstract for David Keith's article: "Aerosols could be injected into the upper atmosphere to engineer the climate by scattering incident sunlight so as to produce a cooling tendency that may mitigate the risks posed by the accumulation of greenhouse gases. Analysis of climate engineering has focused on sulfate aerosols. Here I examine the possibility that engineered nanoparticles could exploit photophoretic forces, enabling more control over particle distribution and lifetime than is possible with sulfates, perhaps allowing climate engineering to be accomplished with fewer side effects. The use of electrostatic or magnetic materials enables a class of photophoretic forces not found in nature. Photophoretic levitation could loft particles above the stratosphere, reducing their capacity to interfere with ozone chemistry; and, by increasing particle lifetimes, it would reduce the need for continual replenishment of the aerosol. Moreover, particles might be engineered to drift poleward enabling albedo modification to be tailored to counter polar warming while minimizing the impact on equatorial climates."

In Andrew Maynard's article, he addresses the safety concerns of such an approach, and cites a paper about what he feels is much needed nanothechnology safety studies.

Dec 2010 Cold in Eastern US and Europe

The linked Earth Observatory image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite shows clearly Dec 2010 temperature anomalies. Basically, we in the NE U.S. and most of Europe have been experiencing significantly below normal temperatures, while the Canadian high artic and Greenland have been experiencing significantly above normal temperatures.

And this continues, especially in the UK, even after the Dec 10 end date for the satellite image. An obvious question is: Could this temperature flip-flop be due to greenhouse gas induced climate change?

Clouds of Uncertainty

                                                                                                                              Bill Fintel photo

The title link is to a USA Today article reporting on cloud studies from 2000 to 2010 by Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M. Dessler says his study shows clouds will have a positive feedback on greenhouse gas induced global warming. In other words, more warming will occur than just that caused by greenhouse gases.

The article cites a rebuttal to Dessler's study by climate change skeptic, Roy Spencer of the University of Alabama. Spencer believes clouds will provide a negative feedback and moderate greenhouse gas induced global warming. Overall, an interesting article from which you can draw your own conclusions.

Geoengineering support moving ahead...cautiously

The title link is to an AP article about geoengineering, and why it is receiving more support, including research funding. Following are some quotes from the article:

"The taboo is broken," Paul Crutzen, a Nobel Prize-winning atmospheric scientist, told The Associated Press.

Whatever the doubts, "we are amazingly farther up the road on geoengineering," Crutzen, who wrote a 2006 scientific article that sparked interest in geoengineering, said by telephone from Germany.

In September, the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommended in a 70-page report that the White House "establish a clear strategy for geoengineering research" within its science office.

Perhaps most significantly, the U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, the global authority on climate science, agreed in October to take on geoengineering in its next assessment report. Its hundreds of scientists will begin with a session next spring."

Artic Tundra Tipping Point?

                                                                                                         Arthur Max / Associated Press

"Scientist Sergey Zimov says Siberia's total carbon storage is equivalent to all the world's rain forests."

Have you been to Chersky, Russia? I haven't, but it is a fascinating place where Russian scientist Sergey Zimov is studying methane release from the frozen, but thawing arctic tundra. Bottom line? This really does look like a potential climate change tipping point, as methane is more than 20x as powerful a greenhouse gas compared to CO2. Fortunately, methane is also relatively short-lived compared to CO2.

390 and rising

The title link is to the NASA Climate Key Indicators page, and it shows we have just reached 390 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. Additionally, you can find sea level rise, average surface temperature increase, and ice melting rates, all of which point to a warming earth.

Eagles, Wind and Solar

The linked article is about the Philadelphia Eagles, and how they plan to spend $30 million on wind and solar power for their stadium, and that they expect this will save them $60 million in energy costs over the next 20 years. Presumably this savings includes their plans to sell excess energy back to the grid. It almost seems to good to be true. Still an admirable undertaking.

Prospects for Cancun, and a proposed plan

From the linked Wall Street Journal editorial by Bjorn Lomborg:
"Attendees in Cancun will be singing the same tune that they did last year: Nations must commit themselves to drastic, immediate carbon cuts. This ignores both economic reality and 20 years of experience that tell us that this policy choice is incredibly expensive, utterly ineffective and ultimately politically unsellable.

.................World-wide public spending on research and development for clean energy technologies is a paltry $2 billion a year. Increasing this to $100 billion a year could be a game-changer. Not only would it be almost twice as cheap as the $180 billion a year cost of fully implementing Kyoto, but the effect of this kind of spending would be hundreds of times greater. But this should not be our only response to global warming. We should also invest considerably more in adaptation to global warming's effects, and research geo-engineering technologies as a potential backstop."

Geoengineering: Ban or Study?

At the recent meeting of the Convention on Biodiversity in Nagoya, member nations came out with the following statement concerning geoengineering:

"No climate-related geo-engineering activities that may affect biodiversity take place, until there is an adequate scientific basis on which to justify such activities and appropriate consideration of the associated risks for the environment and biodiversity and associated social, economic and cultural impacts, with the exception of small-scale scientific research studies [under controlled circumstances]."

It appears their primary goal is to prevent large scale tests of geoengineering.

In the same Times article, Bart Gordon, current chair of the House Committe on Science and Technology, is quoted as saying:

"Climate engineering carries with it a tremendous range of uncertainties and possibilities, ethical and political concerns, and the potential for catastrophic side effects. If we find ourselves passing an environmental tipping point, we will need to have done research to understand our options."

And the article's author, Bryan Walsh, says:

"Geoengineering is potentially dangerous—but so is climate change. Banning research in the field could deprive humanity of a last-ditch weapon should global warming spin out of control. And we'll never know how effective geoengineering could be—or how risky—unless scientists are allowed to do their work."

C40 Cities

A little more good news concerning climate action. Mayors from many of the world's largest cities met Nov 5 in Hong Kong to discuss action to reduce their carbon footprint. From the title link article:

"Each of our cities share common goals -- to reduce our carbon footprint, to make our environment more livable and to join hands to combat global warming and climate change," Hong Kong's chief executive Donald Tsang told delegates at the C40 forum, which started Friday.

"Cities are home to more than half of the world's population, they consume over two-thirds of the world's energy and emit more than 70 percent of total carbon dioxides."

For more information about C40 Cities, visit their web site.

Solar Thermal Progress in the U.S.

Even though the title of this NY Times article is somewhat pessimistic, after reading the article, I felt optimistic that large scale solar power generation projects are indeed moving forward. The following paragraph provides a nice summary of, Solar Power Projects Face Potential Hurdles:

"The Ivanpah plant is the first of nine multibillion-dollar solar farms in California and Arizona that are expected to begin construction before the end of the year as developers race to qualify for tens of billions of dollars in federal grants and loan guarantees that are about to expire. The new plants will generate nearly 4,000 megawatts of electricity if built — enough to power three million homes."

"Unlike the photovoltaic panel systems found on rooftops, most of the new solar plants will use thousands of large mirrors to heat liquids to generate steam that drives conventional electricity-generating turbines." (Click on the 'solar energy'  in labels below to see previous posts with more details of solar thermal technology.)

The current concern is that the federal incentives now being offered will expire before the projects clear all the regulatory approvals.

How to Cool the Planet by Jeff Goodall (post #1)

This is a book I have just begun to read, and so far I am very impressed. Jeff Goodall not only presents the science of geoengineering, but perhaps of greater importance, he clarifies some of the human and political aspects, and their probable side effects not necessarily linked to the science.

For instance, Jeff takes us back to experience the rainmakers of the old west, like Charles Hatfield, and more recently, nuclear "plowshare" scientists, like Edward Teller. Jeff's message? That any real attempt at geoengineering will be open to all sorts of claims about the bad effects it causes, like floods, droughts, etc. And at least for now, so much of these unwanted effects will be almost impossible to attribute to natural versus man-made causes. Net result? Geoengineering will face potentially huge criticism, whether justified or unjustified.

Thought provoking reading! I will add more posts as I read more.

Climate Denial....Geoengineering the only hope?

You may take exception with my statement that reducing atmospheric CO2 levels in the coming century is unlikely, and in truth I hope I am wrong, but just read the title link to a NY Times editorial before you get too optimistic.

And follow that up with this Dana Milbank editorial, the last sentence of which is: "Geoengineering isn't a magic bullet. But at a time when a Democratic Senate candidate is firing live ammo at the cap-and-trade bill, it's worth a shot."

Snow Petrels as Monitors of Climate Change

Snow Petrels are birds of the Antarctic, and because their habitat is changing, and forecast to change even more rapidly, Australian scientists will add small tracking devices to Snow Petrels at several colonies in Antarctica. This will enable the scientists to monitor where the Snow Petrels feed, and thus be an indicator of changes in the southern ocean currents and food supplies. This is a region that is expected to be very sensitive to global climate changes. As one who loves birds, I could not resist putting this link up, even though the article just outlines the beginning of their research. Above photo by Bill Fintel.

CO2 as a global thermostat

While much has been said about the major role of water vapor and clouds in the greenhouse effect, the title linked article by NASA climate scientist, Andrew Lacis, describes a sophisticated modeling experiment that zeroed out atmospheric CO2 and other non-condensing greenhouse gases, so that water vapor and clouds were the only atmospheric greenhouse factors. The net result was a frozen planet with temperatures even at the Equator of just 1 deg C.

From the title article:
"This climate modeling experiment was performed using the GISS ModelE general circulation coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model by zeroing out all of the non-condensing greenhouse gases. Doing this removed the radiative forcing that sustains the temperature support for water vapor and cloud feedbacks, causing rapid condensation and precipitation of water vapor from the atmosphere, collapsing the terrestrial greenhouse effect, and plunging the Earth into an icebound state."

From a 2nd NASA article we get a geological perspective:
"The study ties in to the geologic record in which carbon dioxide levels have oscillated between approximately 180 parts per million during ice ages, and about 280 parts per million during warmer interglacial periods. To provide perspective to the nearly 1 C (1.8 F) increase in global temperature over the past century, it is estimated that the global mean temperature difference between the extremes of the ice age and interglacial periods is only about 5 C (9 F).

"When carbon dioxide increases, more water vapor returns to the atmosphere. This is what helped to melt the glaciers that once covered New York City," said co-author David Rind, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "Today we are in uncharted territory as carbon dioxide approaches 390 parts per million in what has been referred to as the 'superinterglacial.'"

So what to do if the Earth's temperatures rise dramatically, with associated sea level rise, drought, famine, disease, etc. Reducing atmospheric CO2 levels seems to be an unachievable task, at least in the next century. So what can we do? Is Geoengineering a viable approach???? (stay tuned)

Climate Change Science....and Uncertainties

"Uncertainty can work both ways, since the changes and their impacts may be either smaller or larger than those projected." from Royal Academy of Sciences guide to climate change. The possibility that we are UNDERestimating what changes may occur, is brought up much less frequently than the skeptics view, that we are "probably overestimating what will happen".

And as we have heard before, modeling clouds adds the most uncertainty. From the Washington Post "Estimates range between about 2C and 4.5C for a doubling of carbon dioxide. Scientists are trying to narrow that spread, but climate modeling is exceptionally difficult, particularly when it comes to estimating the effects of clouds on the climate system."

The Maldives - Our global warming Canary???

"Few countries in the world face as immediate a threat from climate change as the Republic of Maldives, a low-lying group of atolls in the Indian Ocean whose coastline is eroding and whose water supplies are now being infiltrated by saltwater from the sea."

The title link is to a Washington Post article which clearly covers what the residents of the Maldives are experiencing, and what they are doing to deal with warming oceans, and sea level rise. The Maldives is definitely a country to follow as an indicator of what is happening to highly sensitive countries as the global climate changes.

 President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives at an underwater cabinet meeting.

10/10/10 Global Work Party

"....... this Sunday's "Global Work Party," where activists from around the globe will "pressure our leaders to Get To Work themselves by passing strong climate policies promoting clean energy and reducing emissions," as 350.org's website explains.

With two days remaining until 10/10/10, the group has registered nearly 7,000 events in 188 countries. Coordinated online outreach by 350.org and its partner organizations has made the immense scale of the Global Work Party possible."

The title-linked article provides a concise, but detailed summary of grass roots efforts to tackle global warming spearheaded by 350.org and Greenpeace. If you go to the 350.org web site you can search where some of the 7,000 events are taking place. The closest to southern Delaware is in Salisbury, MD.

2010 Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Arctic sea ice extent for 2010 was the third lowest on record, and in line with the overall decline recorded by satellites since the early 1970's.

Geoengineering - U. S. Gov Program

The above link is to an October 4 article in the Washington Post. It provides an excellent overview of what geoengineering is, why it makes sense to study various geoengineering approaches in more detail, and what the House Science and Technology Committee is doing.

In the article is a link to a recent statement by Science and Technology Chairman, Bart Gordon. It is titled, Plan B for the Climate, and puts in perspective some key points, such as the potential risks of geoengineering, but also the risks of relying solely on carbon emissions reduction to avert future severe climate change.

I found it interesting that some geoengineering approaches, like reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space, are considered "inexpensive". This of course gives rise to the concern that if global warming escalates catastrophically, as feared by many, one country might take it upon itself to unilaterally solve the problem......and in doing so unleash severe side effects, perhaps worse than the warming problem.

Petroleum-eating microbes

Even though the referenced link is only indirectly connected to climate change though a common element, petroleum, I thought it was sufficiently unique to post. It certainly indicates the earth can, at times, be more adaptable and responsive to sudden change than we expect.

2009 Climate Scorecard

More than 300 scientists from 48 countries have compiled the annual State of the Climate Report for 2009. Everyone of 10 key indicators confirms that the Earth is warming. The above link takes you to a NOAA site where you can download either the full 218 page report, or a 10 page summary report, as I chose.

What the report does not do is assess the cause of this warming trend. However, it does deal with some of the consequences, such as more severe weather, and it attempts to quantify them.

I definitely recommend at least the summary report. Also informative are the interactive graphs available at the title link under "Do It Yourself: Key Climate Indicators". A sample of these is this link to sea level rise, my preferred indicator.

Clouds & Global Warming

We all know that clouds play an important role in determining weather as well as past and future climate. This is due to the absoptive and reflective nature of the water vapor. The clouds capture and then release the solar radiation from the Sun and infrared radiation from the surface of the Earth. Due to the ever-changing cloud formation, the contained amount of moisture, the height of the cloud formation, temperature, as well as the droplet size, this energy transfer mechanism is very complicated, making their effect on global warming difficult to model. This link to a NASA Earth Observatory article will hopefully add a bit of clarity to this phenomena.

Refining Climate History

You probably recall climate history charts of temperature and CO2 appear to show that rises in global temperature preceded rises in atmospheric CO2. This seems to be counter to today's theories that rising CO2 concentrations will cause a rise in global temperature, and thus provides fuel for the skeptics arguments against linking current rising CO2 levels to future global warming.

The title link to a Wall Street Journal article addresses this and details a new ice core effort in Antarctica aimed at refining  historical data to better clarify the relationship between global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The main questions with past data arise from proxy results for temperature, and with ice core dating. This new study aims to use oxygen isotope measurements to deduce global temperature (not new, but apparently being done in a more refined way), and adds several techniques for deducing ice core age. Additionally, the drilling location is in an area with heavier snowfall, so the ice core layers are better separated.

The above photo shows back-lit ice layers and is from an expanded link in the WSJ article.

Forest Preservation, a big step forward.....REDD Plus

Forrest Dweller, Papua New Guinea

Oslo, Norway: $4 Billion has been pledged by wealthy nations to assist poor nations in preserving their forests. What is so encouraging about this step, is that wildlife will definitely benefit, regardless of how much impact it has on global warming.

As with most aid programs, the real difficulty will come with implementation, with making sure the funds are really effective in reducing forest destruction. "An agency monitoring the aid will be up and running before U.N. climate talks start in Cancun, Mexico, later this year...

The new monitoring agency would oversee individual agreements between countries to fight deforestation and educate local populations who live off forests — estimated at more than 1 billion worldwide — to do so in a sustainable way."

REDD Plus =  Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (title link is now UN-REDD)

Evapotranspiration and climate change

Evapotranspiration relates to plant physiology, and the latest on what it means for climate change is that with 2x CO2 levels, plants evaporate less water, and hence contribute less to cooling the earth than they used to, 25% less in the North America and Asia, according to the linked article. This was totally new to me, so I thought you might also find it new and interesting.

I have been working on a Himalayan post since returning from Bhutan, but it has turned out to be more complicated than anticipated, and spring bird migration/classes have also been consuming my time. Thanks to Bo and Gordon for keeping posts going while I was away. Bill

2008 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The EPA reports U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 were equivalent to 6957 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, 2.9 percent lower than in 2007 but still 13.5 pecent higher than in 1990.

NASA Study Finds Atlantic 'Conveyor Belt' Not Slowing

New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps to regulate climate in the North Atlantic region, show that no significant slowing has occurred over the past 15 years. The data shows that the circulation may have even sped up slightly in recent years.

The latest climate models predict that this conveyor belt should indeed slow down as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds fresh water to the ocean. The recent NASA study indicates that the observed overturning strength is most likely due to natural cycle changes. It would appear that any suggestion of an impending ice age in northern high latitudes due to greatly reduced tropical ocean water heat transfer is premature.

The rather sudden slowdown in the conveyor belt current 12,000 years ago, which led to a reversal of the warming trend since the end of the last ice age, was at a period of much colder climate. "Models of today's warmer conditions suggest that a slowdown would have a much smaller impact." This is not to say that the Atlantic overturning circulation doesn't play a significant role in today's climate.

The clouds of unknowing

The March 20th, 2010 edition of the Economist magazine gives a briefing on The science of climate change. They cover the uncertainties of the IPCC modeling but conclude:

" The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction."

Tropical Cyclones Thomas and Ului

The above link is to a composite NASA satellite image of both of these cyclones on March 15. The destruction done by Thomas is still unfolding, but if you have not already read about it, here is the latest AP report. Are these cyclones more severe because of global warming? Probably only history will tell.

Antarctica: Mertz Glacier/Iceberg update

 

To see a full size image, click on photo......and remember, you are viewing icebergs approximately the size of Rhode Island.

Delaware: 30% Renewable by 2029

From DelawareOnline: "Gov. Jack Markell on Wednesday proposed a 10-year extension of a Delaware law that requires utilities to buy electric power from renewable sources, seeking to spur green manufacturing and help residents afford small-scale solar installations.

Under the proposal, every electric utility in the state would need to buy 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources such as solar or wind power by 2029. That's an increase from current law, which requires 20 percent by 2019."

Methane, 20x more potent than CO2

This article in the Guardian.co.uk seeks to put in perspective the role of arctic methane in future climate change. The article has many links, so you too can become methane-supersaturated, just like the ocean waters above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

If you just wish their conclusion, it is:

"For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth's climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen."

My opinion? I think methane may be a bigger player than the above quote implies. If you have an opinion, please add it under comments.

Why the past decade did not warm more than it did

You may recall that Phil Jones, former director of Britain's Climatic Research Unit, said there has been NO statistically significant global warming from 1995 to the present. If true, why?

Well it would appear that a 10% decrease in water vapor in the stratosphere may be the cause. Water vapor is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas, and has been thought to remain at relatively stable concentrations. While the linked study cites extensive measurements, the authors confess to not knowing why stratospheric water vapor content changes.

Since water vapor and cloud formation are linked, you might wish to check out this short article about improved cloud modeling in Nature Climate Reports.   Photo: Clouds over Madagascar by Bill Fintel

Cold Snap Plus Global Warming Do Add Up

The Artic Oscillation resulting from a pattern of high sealevel pressure over the Arctic has led to "weaker westerly winds that typically pin cold air closer to the North pole...Cold snaps and bouts of natural cooling that could last years are expected naturally even as the climate continues on a long-term warming trend, forced by man-made emissions." John Wallace, an atmospheric science professor from the University of Washington, said that the weakened jet stream has allowed cold Arctic air to creap into more southern latituded.

This link, to a NASA Earth Observatory news letter, contains comments from James Hansen, who as you all know, is a strong advocate of anthropogenic global temperature interference. That aside, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has determined that the year 2009 was tied for the second hottest year on record.

Frankly, there is still too much scientists don't know yet to be certain that natural warming trend causes are not an even greater influence.

Latest from Al Gore

In this 3 page Op-Ed article in the NY Times, Al Gore does not present a lot of new material, but he does a good job bringing all the climate issues, and difficulties, into a unified perspective. A few of my favorite quotes from the article are:

1. In reference IPCC errors and ClimateGate - "....the scientific enterprise will never be completely free of mistakes. What is important is that the overwhelming consensus on global warming remains unchanged."

2. About the U.S. Gov. - "The political paralysis that is now so painfully evident in Washington has thus far prevented action by the Senate — not only on climate and energy legislation, but also on health care reform, financial regulatory reform and a host of other pressing issues."

3. What lies ahead in preventing catastrophic global warming - "The pathway to success is still open, though it tracks the outer boundary of what we are capable of doing. It begins with a choice by the United States to pass a law establishing a cost for global warming pollution............Later this week, Senators John Kerry, Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman are expected to present for consideration similar cap-and-trade legislation." - It will be very interesting to see exactly what this contains and how it is received.

Thanks Roz for flagging this article.

Antarctic Satellite Photos - Mertz Glacier

A very short post about something you have probably read about, but with amazing NASA satellite photos you may have not seen. Also, click on link at bottom of article to see details about possible wildlife and climate impact due to changes in ocean circulation.

Searching Fin Bliz Climate Blog

Just a quick note to point out that you can now scroll to the bottom of this page and search any of the 'Labels', such as sea level, IPCC, etc. The search will bring up all past posts with that label. Also added is a quick comments check box below each post, which obviously now (2/26) are empty, but you can go back and add your input, and if you make some entries, we will use that to perhaps design a fall SDALL climate/green energy course.  Bill

Lewes Sea Level Trend

Since most of us reading this blog live in or near Lewes, DE, I thought you might like this link to see "how fast we are going under". And yes, I still stand by my statement that sea level is our best indicator of global warming, or lack thereof, if that becomes the case.

While at this site, I recommend that you also check out some other coastal locations, such as Grand Isle, LA. There is quite a bit of variation, presumably a lot of which is due to land subsidence.

The Bloom Box: breakthrough or hype?

This sounds like an amazing breakthrough in generating electricity. It is a new fuel cell technology that can convert most hydrocarbons to electricity, and in a way that generates much fewer emissions than current power generation from fossil fuels. And, when the fuel is methane from human activities, the net benefit is even greater. The Bloom Box's other major advantage is that in negates the need for elaborate power distribution grids, because the Boxes can be located locally where the electricity is needed.

Don't believe all this? I too was very skeptical, but watch the video produced by 60 Minutes (at bottom of link), and note who some of the first customers are: FedEx, Google, eBay, Walmart, all with sizable Bloom Box installations.

Thanks to Keith Kiernan for pointing this technology out. It will be fun to track how it advances, and if GE jumps in as forecast. I also really wonder what is in the "magic ink" used on the cell surfaces.

Mojave desert solar update

The U.S. is backing this project by BrightSource Energy with $1.4 billion in federal loan guarantees. This is the same project as discussed in the earlier post about the Desert Tortoise.

The heliostat technology being used is made possible by sophisticated computer tracking of the sun by each of the thousands of mirrors used to concentrate the sun's energy.

In the article, Energy Secretary Steven Chu points out that one key to major expansion of solar and wind energy is large scale energy storage......such as most vehicles being electric powered with a major cumulative battery storage capacity.

More on why skeptics are good

This link is to a very well written and concise article in the WSJ pointed out by Keith Kiernan. Following is a quote from the article:

"Skeptics don't doubt science—they doubt unscientific claims cloaked in the authority of science. The scientific method is a foundation of our information age, with its approach of a clearly stated hypothesis tested through a transparent process with open data, subject to review.

The IPCC report was instead crafted by scientists hand-picked by governments when leading politicians were committed to global warming. Unsurprisingly, the report claimed enough certainty to justify massive new spending and regulations."

Global warming advocates ignore the boulders

This link is to a George Will op-ed column in the Washington Post. It contains lots of details, many presented in a sarcastic way that made me smile. It also contains lots of links for those who wish to delve deeper into his details.

The link I found fascinating is the admission by Phil Jones, former director of Britain's Climatic Research Unit, that there has been NO statistically significant global warming from 1995 to the present.

And as if things aren't bad enough for global warming advocates, read the NY Times analysis of why Yvo de Boer resigned as UN Climate Chief.

Penguins to jelly fish in Antarctica?

The referenced article cites studies that predict krill populations declining due to loss of sea ice accompanying global warming. The study states that krill will be replaced by tiny copepods, too tiny for penguins to feed on, but excellent for jellyfish. Hence penguins (and whales) will decline, and jellyfish will thrive.

While I don't question the science, I do wonder what time frame we are talking. Antarctic sea ice extent has been quite stable from what I have read. Yes, it is forecast to decline more rapidly as the ozone hole over the Antarctic disappears over the next 2 decades, but I also have faith in the krill adapting during any prolonged change in sea ice extent.

 

Above: Gentoo Penguin feeding krill to her young. Photo by Bill Fintel

Guess What, Global Warming Results in More Snow

Contrary to global warming skeptics the increased snowfall that we have had in the past few weeks is indicative of the increase in ocean temperatures in addition to the stronger than usual El Nino this winter. Check out the link to the NPR news story for a closer look and don't be fooled by nay sayers when it comes to global warming.

Latest in Photovoltaic Solar

The title link is to a very optimistic article in Scientific American. It describes several new breakthroughs in photovoltaic cell design, and includes some cost figures as well.

Remember, "Enough sunlight bathes Earth's daytime half in an hour to meet all human energy needs for a year."

And while we are on solar, it looks like the endangered Desert Tortoise and solar-thermal developments are working out their issues, at least at a large site in the Mojave desert of northern California. Photo by USGS.

From on high

If you had been in a satellite recently, here's what our situation looked like from above.

Hope you are all well. Bill

www.climate.gov

You have probably already viewed this new site, but in case not, click above.

In skimming through it, I found one of the most interesting articles was about the expected international conflicts concerning the probable NW passage shipping route and access to mineral resources of the Arctic Ocean seafloor.

Making light of the recent snow

Roz Troupin thought we would enjoy this NY Times article. Of course the heavy snowfall is proof that global warming forecasts are all wrong.........as well as clear evidence that climate change is indeed generating more severe storms.........or of neither.

My favorite was: "........the family of Senator James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma, a leading climate skeptic in Congress, built a six-foot-tall igloo on Capitol Hill and put a cardboard sign on top that read “Al Gore’s New Home.”

A close second was:  ".......the announcement of the creation of a new federal climate service on Monday had to be conducted by conference call, rather than news conference, because the federal government was shuttered by the storm."

I hope no one had any serious consequences from the 2 blizzards. Bill

Clouds Appear to Be a Big, Bad Player in Global Warming

As posted in "Climate Progress," there is strong evidence that cloud changes are exacerbating global warming. This has been a bone of contention for quite some time, but what is certain is that climate models have not been adequately accounting for clouds in predicting climate change, either current or future. "Feedbacks involving low-level clouds remain a primary cause of uncertainty in global climate model projections." The positive, low-level cloud feedback strongly suggests that a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide level could well result in a mean global warming of 4.4 degrees centigrade, the upper range of predictions, further raising the red flag. This link will take you to the posting of this important study in "Climate Progress."

Renewable Energy Technology (RETECH) 2010

One topic at this conference, held Feb 3-5, was national competitiveness. The US position in terms of green energy scale-up did not stand out favorably.

" 'We're still pretty good at invention or discovery but in terms of deployment, we're losing ground. In fact, you could say we suck,' said Mike Davis, the assistant director for energy and environment at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, during a session on national lab research. 'Our ability to throw sand in the gears in terms of development in this country is just phenomenal. We've perfected it.'....

Germany and Spain have become the two largest markets for solar because (their) energy policies ensure that project developers can get a premium price for renewable power, an approach many U.S. investors and entrepreneurs say is more simple and predictable than the U.S. system."

Boom in distributed solar

Very interesting article from the NY Times highlighting the boom in small, localized solar installations, even during the recession. Reasons for this? Combination of fewer regulatory hurdles, lower cost materials via Chinese manufacturing, and easier connection to existing electric grid. I'll let you know when I firm up plans for our rooftop here in Lewes. Bill

Models quantify predicted storm intensity increase

Whether the model predictions are correct, we will have to wait and see, but at least some scientists are now going way beyond the simplistic - warmer seas mean more intense hurricanes.

".......scientists have now used a modelling approach capable of capturing storms of category-3 or higher intensity, enabling them to simulate twenty-first-century storms realistically....... the ensemble-mean of 18 global climate models and 4 regional models.............

In the simulations, the number of category-4 and category-5 storms in the Atlantic Ocean rose 81 per cent by 2100......increasing numbers of the strongest storms could drastically raise the cost of storm damage."

Increased Atmospheric CO2 Caused Tree Growth Spurt

The attached link to a recent NY Times article discusses an increased level of tree growth in the Chesapeake Bay area directly attributable to the increased level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Factors, such as soil nutrients and available moisture suggest that this higher level of tree growth may not be sustainable.

Cosmic rays and climate

CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, is studying a possible link between cosmic rays and the earth's climate. The concept was presented in a lecture at CERN on June 4, 2009 by the leader of the effort, Jasper Kirkby. Following is the abstract of that talk.
" The current understanding of climate change in the industrial age is that it is predominantly caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, with relatively small natural contributions due to solar irradiance and volcanoes. However, palaeoclimatic reconstructions show that the climate has frequently varied on 100-year time scales during the Holocene (last 10 kyr) by amounts comparable to the current warming - and yet the mechanism or mechanisms are not understood. Some of these reconstructions show clear associations with solar variability, which is recorded in the light radio-isotope archives that measure past variations of cosmic ray intensity. However despite the increasing evidence of its importance, solar-climate variability is likely to remain controversial until a physical mechanism is established.
Estimated changes of solar irradiance on these time scales appear to be too small to account for the climate observations. This raises the question of whether cosmic rays may directly affect the climate, providing an effective indirect solar forcing mechanisms. Indeed recent satellite observations - although disputed - suggest that cosmic rays may affect clouds. This talk presents an overview of paleoclimatic evidence for solar/cosmic ray forcing of the climate, and reviews the possible physical mechanisms. These will be investigated in the CLOUD experiment which begins to take data at the CERN PS later this year."
Kirkby's lecture can be viewed at the link shown.

Copenhagen from a business perspective.

The January 19, 2010 issue of the Financial Times commented that the Copenhagen Climate Change meeting did not provide enough certainty to influence any business decision. Since most renewable technologies are not competitive with fossil fuels unless backed by government support a failure to reach a political commitment could be fatal. The countries that made the strongest objection to the progress of the talks were oil producing States such as Venezuela, Sudan and Saude Arabia

The Renewable Energy Industry worldwide still has enough momentum to sustain contnued growth. For the future the decisive factors will be the Politics, the economics of the energy industry and the science of Climate Change. If the evidence of the negative impact of global warming mounts then the uncertainty for Clean Energy will dissappear.

Apart from the Financial Times the above chart shows the 4th Quarter 2009 cost of producing electricity ($/mega watt hour). From Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Accelerating

Very interesting study showing that the major cause of ice loss in Antarctica is glacial flow into the sea, and that it has been accelerating, even though surface melting has been declining. This appears to be due to warmer sea, but will be studied in much more detail by placing an instrumented buoy under the Pine Island Glacier in 2011.

The Antarctic isn't melting much -- Yet

The circumpolar winds that circulate around the Antarctic have strengthened during the past four decades, acting as a barrier to warm air intrusion from lower latitudes. This is attributed to the thinner ozone layer, making the stratosphere cooler which in turn generates stronger winds beneath, effectively sealing off most of the continent each summer from the effects of global warming. The past Antarctic summer has seen less melting than any time in the past 30 years during which satellite data has been available.

However, the as the ozone quantity increases this is expected to cause a reduction in the circumpolar winds, allowing greater intrusion of warmer air and hence, increasing the ice sheet melting during the Antarctic summer.

Every year is different, says Marco Tedesco of the City College of New York: "In 2005, we had summer melting occurring inland as well as over the coastal ice shelves, and over areas up to 2500 meters above sea level." Even during exceptional low melt of last year however, ice on the northwest peninsula has contnued to collapse rapidly since February, 2008.

Arctic Oscillation....and why it has been so cold lately

Here is an explanation as to why we, and all of the northern hemisphere, have had significantly below normal temperatures....we are in a negative arctic oscillation....the most severe since 1950. And as you might expect, it has nothing to do with global warming, or global cooling. It is just a large scale atmospheric event, where the arctic for the past month or so, has been much warmer than normal.....10 to 15 degrees F warmer.

For an image of northern hemisphere temperature anomalies from NASA Earth Observatory, click here.

Future implications? See this article in the New Zealand News which discusses the effects of this negative oscillation (high pressure over the arctic) with the formation of arctic sea ice and future reflectivity.....it may either accelerate global warming through less sea ice coverage, or it may reduce global warming by increasing the thickness and stability of older sea ice. Above photo: Prime Hook Jan 8, 2010, click to enlarge.

Green Energy Jobs Push

He (Obama) outlined the initiative after a weak government jobs report raised new questions about the sustainability of the recovery.

"It's clear why such an effort is so important. Building a robust clean energy sector is how we will create the jobs of the future, jobs that pay well and can't be outsourced," Obama said in late-afternoon economic comments at the White House.

Sorry this post is so main stream, but it is also so important, and encouraging! Lets see what happens next.

Lobsters and ocean acidity

All you lobster lovers can breathe a sigh of relief. Lobsters actually fare better in more acidic water. This was even a surprise to the scientists who conducted the experiments, which did in fact show that 10 of 18 marine calcifiers had more difficulty building their exoskeleton as sea water became more acidic, but lobsters, crabs and shrimp were better able to build their shells.

The article is in Nature Reports - Climate Change, and from this link you can access other articles, issues and a blog, all focused on climate change.

Scientists Map Speed of Climate Change

Shifting climate regimes have resulted in many creatures, such as pine warblers to migrate toward higher latitudes. A tearm of scientists from the California Academy of Sciences have calculated that, on average, ecosystems will need to shift about 0.42 km/yr to keep pace with global climate change. This study, which included scientists from Carnegie Institute of Science and U.C. Berkeley, and whose work will be published in "Nature," looked at the effect on individual species whose tolerence to such changes varies. The rapidity of such change is a critical determining factor. This link is to the NASA's Earth Observatory reporting of this pre-publication finding.

Secretary of State Clinton Speech on Access to Reproductive Health Worldwide

"This event was originally scheduled for December 21, 2009, but was postponed due to weather conditions in the District of Columbia. We invite you to join us on the new date, Friday, January 8, 2010. The speech will be live streamed on www.icpd2015.org starting at approximately 3:00 pm. A transcript and video of of the speech will be posted on this site following the event." Population Connection

A Worthwhile Quote

In a letter to the Economist magazine, Professor Benjamin De Foy of the St Louis University in St Louis ,MO said the following about the Climate Change issue:

"It is importan to keep the debate on climate change alive, so both sides should be grateful for each other. We could learn a lesson from the film '12 Angry Men'. Henry Fonda's lone sceptic holds firm against 11 angry jurors to prevent a possibly wrongful conviction. He does this by focusing on the evidence and not making personal attacks. Each side of the debate on global warming would do well to consider how they measure up to this standard"

Arctic freeze and snow wreak havoc across the planet

"Arctic air and record snow falls gripped the northern hemisphere today, inflicting hardship and havoc from China, across Russia to Western Europe and over the US plains.

There were few precedents for the global sweep of extreme cold and ice that killed dozens in India, paralysed life in Beijing and threatened the Florida orange crop."

Plus, I would like to add that yesterday's Prime Hook Christmas Bird Count was  one of the coldest/harshest bird counts I have ever participated in. Why is this happening and how does it relate to global warming predictions?

I certainly don't know, but I will see what I can learn, such as from the first comment to the linked article: "Yeah well it's 36C (97F) down under here in Melbourne Australia and my air con is at full blast. Serves you all right for living on the wrong side of the Earth!".......i.e. what's happening in half the globe, does not necessarily represent the whole globe.