2008 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The EPA reports U.S. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2008 were equivalent to 6957 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, 2.9 percent lower than in 2007 but still 13.5 pecent higher than in 1990.

NASA Study Finds Atlantic 'Conveyor Belt' Not Slowing

New NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps to regulate climate in the North Atlantic region, show that no significant slowing has occurred over the past 15 years. The data shows that the circulation may have even sped up slightly in recent years.

The latest climate models predict that this conveyor belt should indeed slow down as greenhouse gases warm the planet and melting ice adds fresh water to the ocean. The recent NASA study indicates that the observed overturning strength is most likely due to natural cycle changes. It would appear that any suggestion of an impending ice age in northern high latitudes due to greatly reduced tropical ocean water heat transfer is premature.

The rather sudden slowdown in the conveyor belt current 12,000 years ago, which led to a reversal of the warming trend since the end of the last ice age, was at a period of much colder climate. "Models of today's warmer conditions suggest that a slowdown would have a much smaller impact." This is not to say that the Atlantic overturning circulation doesn't play a significant role in today's climate.

The clouds of unknowing

The March 20th, 2010 edition of the Economist magazine gives a briefing on The science of climate change. They cover the uncertainties of the IPCC modeling but conclude:

" The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction."

Tropical Cyclones Thomas and Ului

The above link is to a composite NASA satellite image of both of these cyclones on March 15. The destruction done by Thomas is still unfolding, but if you have not already read about it, here is the latest AP report. Are these cyclones more severe because of global warming? Probably only history will tell.

Antarctica: Mertz Glacier/Iceberg update

 

To see a full size image, click on photo......and remember, you are viewing icebergs approximately the size of Rhode Island.

Delaware: 30% Renewable by 2029

From DelawareOnline: "Gov. Jack Markell on Wednesday proposed a 10-year extension of a Delaware law that requires utilities to buy electric power from renewable sources, seeking to spur green manufacturing and help residents afford small-scale solar installations.

Under the proposal, every electric utility in the state would need to buy 30 percent of its electricity from renewable sources such as solar or wind power by 2029. That's an increase from current law, which requires 20 percent by 2019."

Methane, 20x more potent than CO2

This article in the Guardian.co.uk seeks to put in perspective the role of arctic methane in future climate change. The article has many links, so you too can become methane-supersaturated, just like the ocean waters above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf.

If you just wish their conclusion, it is:

"For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth's climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen."

My opinion? I think methane may be a bigger player than the above quote implies. If you have an opinion, please add it under comments.

Why the past decade did not warm more than it did

You may recall that Phil Jones, former director of Britain's Climatic Research Unit, said there has been NO statistically significant global warming from 1995 to the present. If true, why?

Well it would appear that a 10% decrease in water vapor in the stratosphere may be the cause. Water vapor is a naturally occurring greenhouse gas, and has been thought to remain at relatively stable concentrations. While the linked study cites extensive measurements, the authors confess to not knowing why stratospheric water vapor content changes.

Since water vapor and cloud formation are linked, you might wish to check out this short article about improved cloud modeling in Nature Climate Reports.   Photo: Clouds over Madagascar by Bill Fintel

Cold Snap Plus Global Warming Do Add Up

The Artic Oscillation resulting from a pattern of high sealevel pressure over the Arctic has led to "weaker westerly winds that typically pin cold air closer to the North pole...Cold snaps and bouts of natural cooling that could last years are expected naturally even as the climate continues on a long-term warming trend, forced by man-made emissions." John Wallace, an atmospheric science professor from the University of Washington, said that the weakened jet stream has allowed cold Arctic air to creap into more southern latituded.

This link, to a NASA Earth Observatory news letter, contains comments from James Hansen, who as you all know, is a strong advocate of anthropogenic global temperature interference. That aside, NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has determined that the year 2009 was tied for the second hottest year on record.

Frankly, there is still too much scientists don't know yet to be certain that natural warming trend causes are not an even greater influence.

Latest from Al Gore

In this 3 page Op-Ed article in the NY Times, Al Gore does not present a lot of new material, but he does a good job bringing all the climate issues, and difficulties, into a unified perspective. A few of my favorite quotes from the article are:

1. In reference IPCC errors and ClimateGate - "....the scientific enterprise will never be completely free of mistakes. What is important is that the overwhelming consensus on global warming remains unchanged."

2. About the U.S. Gov. - "The political paralysis that is now so painfully evident in Washington has thus far prevented action by the Senate — not only on climate and energy legislation, but also on health care reform, financial regulatory reform and a host of other pressing issues."

3. What lies ahead in preventing catastrophic global warming - "The pathway to success is still open, though it tracks the outer boundary of what we are capable of doing. It begins with a choice by the United States to pass a law establishing a cost for global warming pollution............Later this week, Senators John Kerry, Lindsey Graham and Joe Lieberman are expected to present for consideration similar cap-and-trade legislation." - It will be very interesting to see exactly what this contains and how it is received.

Thanks Roz for flagging this article.

Antarctic Satellite Photos - Mertz Glacier

A very short post about something you have probably read about, but with amazing NASA satellite photos you may have not seen. Also, click on link at bottom of article to see details about possible wildlife and climate impact due to changes in ocean circulation.