Wind Power Makes a Big Advance

First, Happy Holidays to all.

And to keep things cheerful, this post is full of positive information. Basically, by improved precision in forecasting winds near wind turbine sites, utilities are able to save millions of dollars per year in total power generation costs. This is because they can now match coal and gas fired generator needs to the predicted output from associated wind turbines, which allows them to shut down coal and gas generation units as long as wind generation units are forecast to be more productive with more wind. Neat science, and a benefit to all.

Deep Oceans and Global Warming

"The planet’s deep oceans at times may absorb enough heat to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade even in the midst of longer-term warming, according to a new analysis led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)."

This new study includes very little actual data because there are very few measurements of deep (below 300 m) ocean temperatures. Its conclusions are based largely on sophisticated computer simulations:

"To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model’s ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The two scientists, who are coauthors on the new study, suggested that the oceans might be storing some of the heat that would otherwise go toward other processes, such as warming the atmosphere or land, or melting more ice and snow."

“This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean,” Trenberth says. “The heat has not disappeared, and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences."

A World 29 degrees F Hotter!!!

The title linked article by Jeffrey Kiehl from the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), states that if we continue burning fossil fuels at the current rate, atmospheric CO2 will reach 1,000 ppm by 2100. Based on studies of Earth's past, between 35 and 100 million years ago, Earth's atmosphere contained this level of CO2, and the Earth's temperature was roughly 29 degrees F warmer than pre-industrial temperatures (27 deg F above present).

Now this does NOT mean Earth's temperature is forecast to rise 27 degrees by 2100, even if CO2 rises to 1,000 ppm. The rise will take centuries longer because of delayed effects, like glaciers and ice sheets melting. Kiehl points out that as the Earth warms and ice cover melts, less of the sun's radiation is reflected back into space, and so the warming effect of more CO2 is amplified. Additional amplification comes from more water vapor (a greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere, and release of other greenhouse gases, like methane.

'If emissions continue on their current trajectory, “the human species and global ecosystems will be placed in a climate state never before experienced in human history,”..........'

Note: To learn more about UCAR and NCAR, and their broad stated goal of, Fostering a deeper understanding of the atmosphere, Earth, and Sun, click here.