Artic Sea Ice for 2019 Tied 2nd Lowest Extent on Record

This link will take you to the NASA web site's very recent article about the extent of Arctic Sea Ice for 2019. The information is depressing, but not surprising.

Arctic sea ice is very effective at reflecting solar radiation back into space, and hence limiting global warming. The open ocean left behind, where the ice used to be, is very absorbent to solar radiation, and hence promotes global warming.

NASA is a great resource for current climate data...https://climate.nasa.gov/

Concerns on sea-level rise, but some 'good news'?....video from Yale Climate Connections

"The video can serve as a valuable instructional tool for those wanting to better explain or understand global sea-level rise trends and prospects. There are some painful, and even dire, concerns expressed about the potential that Greenland ice sheets could be “entirely lost” if emissions continue at a business-as-usual pace; about the rate of sea-level rise increasing “faster and faster with time”; and about the planet’s ice sheets likely becoming “more active” over coming decades than they have been over recent decades.

But scientist Eric Rignot, PhD, of the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, whose research about three years ago pointed to bleak long-term glacier melt prospects for the western Antarctica, says he holds out hope for some “pretty good news.” "

Largest Glacial Calving Event Ever Recorded on Camera

Following is the You Tube link to the video I showed in our OLLI Oceans and Climate Change class on March 13, 2018:

Short segment from Chasing Ice

NASA - Vital Signs of Climate Change

Greenland from the air, April 17, 2010 - Bill Fintel photo

This NASA Link provides the latest World data in graphic form on Carbon Dioxide, Global Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Minimum, Land Ice, and Sea Level.

I am looking forward to our Osher Lifelong Learning class on Oceans and Climate Change, beginning March 13, 2018, in Lewes, DE.

Changes in Antarctica May Cool Europe

Europe's climate in recent history has been warmed by the Gulf Stream. Plus some recent European cold periods have been attributed to a reduction in Gulf Stream flow, like the Little Ice Age from about 1350 to 1850.

So is this happening again? There is some solid evidence that it may be.

See this Smithsonian article about the shutdown of deep sea mixing in the Weddell Sea of Antarctica in Climate Change Felt in Deep Waters of Antarctica. There are also many good links in this article, such as the science behind Thermohaline Circulation, aka Ocean Conveyor Belt.

Since there is also a corresponding slow down of the deep water ocean circulation in the N. Atlantic due to increased fresh water influx from melting Greenland glaciers, the combined effect of Arctic and Antarctic changes on the Thermohaline Circulation may become especially significant in the future.

Above picture is my family in 1979, north of the Arctic Circle in Norway. Cold then, and now maybe getting colder (thermohaline changes)...or maybe getting warmer (greenhouse gas effects). They will probably see, and I believe in their lifetime, they will make positive efforts to benefit the health of our planet.

Global Warming and the current "Polar Vortex"

Does it add up? The Earth is warming, and yet many US locations are about to equal or exceed previous low temperature records.

In a nutshell, earth and climate science support what is happening. The northern hemisphere jet stream is being slowed by arctic warming, and in slowing, it is becoming more erratic in its north south wanderings. These larger wanderings are allowing very cold arctic air to spill farther into the US, just like is now happening.

Want to get more scientific than me? Sure you do, so visit QUARTZ, and do watch at least the short video by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University.

HOME - "It's not what's gone, it's what remains that is important."

HOME is a very inspiring video on YouTube about Our Planet and how we have exploited it...... AND, how we can help save it. It is an hour an a half long, but well worth your time to watch all of it.  I do plan to show a few segments in our climate class. Most climate change segments appear after 1:00 hr.

BTW, the photography is also awesome.

Predicting Climate Change - OLLI Fall 2013 Class Schedule

Instructor - Bill Fintel

In this 5 week class we will try to develop a clearer picture of the key elements of climate change, and we will explore possible future scenarios to get a better perspective of what our children and grandchildren may inherit. Class participation is encouraged, and time will be made available for class members to express their views.

Oct 23 – Recent Global Climate Data - In this first class we will review climate change indicators published by NASA, NOAA and others. This data will include surface temperature, sea level, arctic sea ice extent, ocean heat content, and more. Links to these sources can be found at: http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators and http://www.climate.gov/maps-data

Oct 30 – Sea Level Rise and Delaware - As we all realize, much of Delaware is not far above present sea level, and even in the recent past, large coastal storms have caused extensive and major damage. What can Delaware expect in the future? What are Delawareans doing, and what else should we be doing?

Nov 6 – Arctic and Antarctic Changes - Warming in the Arctic is proceeding much more rapidly than at temperate latitudes. Arctic sea ice extent is steadily decreasing year after year. Greenland glaciers are melting. Permafrost is melting. What are the global implications of these and other polar changes?

Nov 13 – Climate Feedback Loops - Climate feedback loops hold the unfortunate potential to accelerate climate change by amplifying a small change via a positive feedback mechanism. We will explore effects such as the release of methane due to melting permafrost, and a decrease in solar radiation being reflected back into space because of melting polar ice caps.

Nov 20 – Rays of Hope and Conundrums - What are some of the recent developments that give rise to hope for climate stabilization? What is the Majuro declaration? Will humans and other species be able to adapt to the inevitable remaining climate changes? Are Walmart’s efforts to use renewable energy significant or just show? How do we explain things like continuing fossil fuel subsidies, or solar panels getting cheaper and cheaper, but seemingly becoming harder and harder to justify financially?

Retreating Glaciers

Following is a link to a short portion of the movie "Chasing Ice". I have seen the entire movie, and whether you have or haven't, I still encourage you to watch this short LINK.

Killer Whales (Orcas), Climate Change, and Politics

Yes there is a link between the three. First, in case you have not seen the video of Orcas trapped by ice in the Hudson Bay, managing to breathe from a relatively small hole in the ice, I believe you will find it amazing.

Scientists involved propose that the event may have been brought on by climate change. Okay, that may seem like a stretch to say for any one event, but the logic is as reasonable as blaming an increase in severe storms on climate change, as has been repeatedly done in the past few years. 

So where does politics enter in? It enters with the Orcas cooperative behavior. Fortunately for them, there was not a Democrat or Republican amongst them. From the observers:
“It’s amazing to see how they managed to find a strategy to share that little space and organize who’s going to breathe and when, because they all needed to breathe every five minutes and they found the strategy for the survival of the group and not the survival of the strongest.”

Sea Level Rise, some at-odds perspectives

Want a few laughs, and lots of good view points? Watch the 10 minute video from Yale Climate forums offered here. It is especially applicable to those of us that live on the east coast of the US.

And it is especially distressing to those of us who want to vote for sane, objective and unbiased elected officials.

Greater Maximum Artic Sea Ice Extent This Winter

Arctic Max Sea Ice Extent Winter 2011-2012 - NASA

OK, not a lot more, but at least not another new record low. So a small optimistic note after yesterday's gloomy posting.

But don't get too optimistic too fast. Quoting the last two paragraphs from the NASA link:

'Meier points out something else about Arctic sea ice extent. “The nine lowest maximum extents have occurred in the last nine years, since 2004,” he says.

Although Arctic sea ice has continued to grow later in the season, the ice has been thin—only about 10 to 30 centimeters (4 to 12 inches) thick at most, Meier explains. “So it will all melt away very quickly. I don’t expect the late-season growth spurt to have a big effect on sea ice extent next summer.” '

Tipping Points and Irreversible Climate Change

Warning, this is not an optimistic report from Nina Chestney at Reuters. The report is an initial summary of presentations at the "Planet Under Pressure" conference taking place in London.

"Scientific estimates differ but the world's temperature looks set to rise by six degrees Celsius by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are allowed to rise uncontrollably."

The tipping points include loss of Arctic and Antarctic glaciers, loss of Amazon rainforest, and release of millions of tons of carbon currently frozen in Siberian permafrost. 

It is a bleak picture. And it is supported by what is happening right now. See NASA's Global Climate Change Indicators. 

As a footnote, here is the link to Planet Under Pressure.

Greenland Ice Sheet, Melting Accelerates

Orange on the above figure indicates where satellites measured increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in 2011

For details about the measurements, see the title link. There is a phenomena involved called "Arctic Amplification". From the Arctic Report Card issued Dec 1, 2011:
"The amplification of warming in the Arctic reflects a powerful feedback between the region’s ice covers and air temperature. As air temperature increases, ice melts; as the bright, reflective ice melts, it reveals darker ocean and land surfaces. These dark surfaces absorb more solar energy during the Arctic’s summer season, when the Sun never sets. This causes more heating, which causes more melting…and so on."

Complete melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet would cause sea levels to rise 6.5 meters, or 21 feet. (USGS fs002-00)

Polar Orbiting Climate Satellite Launch - NPP

This was brought out in our Osher Climate Class today, so above is the title link to the NASA page with a great deal of information about instruments, objectives, etc. It is the latest satellite in the Earth Observing System which began about 10 years ago. The NPP launch was Fri, 10/28/2011.

For those of us with grand children, there is also a NPPy page with information for kids, including a video animation with NPPy the baby Polar Bear and his mom.

2011 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Depending on your source, 2011 was either the 2nd lowest arctic sea ice extent, or the lowest. The title link is to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Their satellite sensor, and the algorithms they use, show minimum sea ice extent for 2011 was 2nd to the all time minimum observed in 2007.

The University of Bremen uses a different sensor, on a different satellite, as well as different algorithms, and their analysis shows 2011 to be the lowest sea ice extent ever measured.

In a broader view, both these analyses show a consistent trend in loss of arctic sea ice since satellite measurements began in 1972. Current minimum sea ice extent is only 50% of what it was in 1972. Other data show that ice thickness is also decreasing.

Additional details from the University of Bremen study can be found in the press release link at their web site. From this press release: "Climate models show rather that the reduction is related to the man-made global warming which, due to the ice albedo effect, is particularly pronounced in the Arctic: an ice area melted by a small temperature increase will then as open water have a much darker surface, absorb more solar radiation than before, which causes additional heating.......

The ice maps of the University of Bremen show also that in this year, the Northwest and Northeast passages are ice free simultaneously (Figure 2). This had happed for the first time in 2008, and in 2009 the German shipping company Beluga has traveled it commercially for the first time."

US Gov Key Climate Indicators

This is an update of US Gov links to global climate data. There is NO title link, because all links are in the below table:

NASA
NOAA
NOAA - Lewes sea level

Note the Greenland and Antarctic land ice mass data on the NASA site, and the sun's energy output and ocean heat content on the NOAA site. This is good supporting information, which often is not quoted.

In a nutshell, if land ice disappears, it went into the ocean and will contribute to sea level rise. If the sun's energy output changes, it will have an effect on global temperature. If the oceans warm, they will expand causing sea level rise, plus this is one more indicator the world is warming.

Lewes (DE) sea level is presented because many followers of this blog live in or near Lewes.

My apologies for letting this blog get behind in updating, but I have been away.

Tipping Point in the Making???

Arctic sea ice is now at its lowest WINTER extent in satellite recorded history. This means there is more dark ocean to absorb solar radiation, and less sea ice to reflect solar radiation back into space. Will this lead to the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever by the end of summer 2011?

Additionally, will this continue on for several years of positive feed-backs to become a major climate change tipping point? It certainly seems to have that potential.

For a Washington Post report on this winter sea ice reduction, click here. The Post article also covers the effects on Polar Bears, such as a significant reduction in body weight since 1980, because the bears have had to spend more time hunting on land, which is less productive than hunting on sea ice.

Understanding the Current Cold

This is an update about the Arctic Oscillation discussed on Dec 18, 2010. The latest image from NASA Earth Observatory even more dramatically highlights the temperature anomalies of the northern hemisphere, with the arctic being up to 18 degrees warmer than the past historical average (red), and much of the US being up to 18 degrees colder (blue). The linked article describes the mechanism, but as best I read it, does not explain the cause.

And if that image is not amazing enough, check out the amazing agreement between four different sources of global mean temperature for the past century. This NASA link also explains how temperatures for areas without weather stations are arrived at through interpolation.

Note: Setting adjustments have been made to the "Comments" option on this blog to make commenting easier. Bill

Geoengineering - How effective is it calculated to be?

Since it unfortunately appears that CO2 emissions for the next several decades, at best will continue more or less constant, and at worst will increase, the obvious question is: If needed, could geoengineering offset the high CO2 greenhouse effect and return Earth's climate to its present state? The answer appears to be, yes, for the most part.......HOWEVER, potential adverse side effects of geoengineering are still unknown.

Following is a summary of the title link study led by Casper Ammann of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research: "Results of the study show that a major, hypothetical geoengineering project, launched in the 2020s, could indeed return Earth’s mean surface temperature to the levels of 2000.

To achieve this, however, the tropics would need to be cooled below 2000 levels in order to offset the warming at higher latitudes. This is partly because the poles by the 2020s are projected to have lost so much sea ice, which reflects solar heat, that they would not be very sensitive to the impacts of geoengineering...... 'The changes in the Arctic may be so profound in the next couple decades that trying to ‘fix’ the climate there might turn out to be futile,' Ammann says."

Bottom-line: Even if we resort to geoengineering, and even if it works, it does not appear to be able to return Earth's climate back to the way it was in 2000 for ALL regions.

Since precipitation is a very important climate factor, Ban-Weiss and Caldeira of the Stanford looked at both global temperature and precipitation in response to sulfate aerosols, and compared optimizing one versus the other using a uniform and a parabolic (more at poles) aerosol distribution. Their results also show major improvements, but they too conclude that Earth's climate can not be engineered back to exactly as it was as long as CO2 levels remain high.

In the the last sentence of their abstract they add a further qualifier: "It is important to note that this idealized study represents a first attempt at optimizing the engineering of climate using a general circulation model; uncertainties are high and not all processes that are important in reality are modeled."

Conclusion: Geoengineering needs a LOT more research before it is considered as a serious option. Of course a rapidly deteriorating climate, with rising sea levels, more intense storms, more severe and widespread droughts, will spur on research and consideration.