The Argo Ocean Sensing Float Aray System

As of March 12, there were 3,845 Argo floats deployed around the World. Each float descends to 2,000 meters every 10 days measuring temperature and salinity. Full details can be found HERE.

Weather Extremes and Carbon Emissions....a Tighter Link

Yes the link between slowly rising global temperatures and weather extremes has been postulated by many scientists and concerned alike, now the scientific community is coming together to say, YES, this is a cause and effect happening due to our steadily increasing carbon emissions.

For more details, see the NY Times article: 
New Study Links Weather Extremes to Global Warming

Florida and Mother Jones

Mother Jones did it right in describing the Florida debacle over verbal directives to not use the phrases "climate change" and "global warming".....as we discussed in the beginning of today's OLLI class on Oceans and Climate Change.

EDF's Blueprint for Climate Stability

The Environmental Defense Fund's Blueprint for Climate Stability presents a very positive position that climate stability can be achieved relatively soon, and specifically that carbon emissions can be slowed to a peak in 2020, and brought into steady decline out through 2100.

Do I believe that can be achieved? Let me just say I believe the technology exists. I just hope that we humans are able to organize and accomplish the huge task required.

For additional details on all EDF's programs, see their Blueprint 2020. It is a 58 page detailed presentation of their programs, from climate change to oceans to agricultural pollutants to world health. It also contains an extensive and interactive list of internet references at the end.

Climate Change 2014: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Nov 1, 2014 released a new report titled:

Climate Change 2014

Synthesis Report

It is available in 2 versions: a shorter version of 40 pages for policy makers, and a longer version of 116 pages. Both can be accessed HERE.

Even the shorter version for policymakers is very technical (but I am sure our policymakers have good technical people on their staff). Also many referenced figures are not yet included, and every page has a disclaimer at the bottom saying, "Subject to copy editing and layout".

Even so, there is a vast amount of current information on climate change prepared by some of the world's most qualified scientists. I will begin a series of posts on this subject by quoting a few highlights, then in subsequent posts I will focus on the oceans involvement, as I will be doing a class on The World's Oceans and Climate Change for Osher Lifelong Learning (Lewes, DE) in the spring of 2015.

Following are two paragraphs from page 3 of the 40 page summary for policy makers:

1.1 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.8 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced data sets exist.

A Positive: The Ocean Heat Sink is working.....

...which means much of the added energy from the greenhouse gas warming is being stored in the deep oceans. But what does this really mean to us humans???

If a substantial amount of global warming ends up warming the deep oceans, does this means we will not be affected by that portion of global warming?

A very hard question to answer. The Latest ocean research shows the oceans are indeed absorbing a substantial amount of heat due to greenhouse gas warming, and the best scientific estimates are that, YES, it will impact world inhabitants, just later as opposed to now.

My view on how this will first impact our World?

It will further undermine the West Antarctic Sheet (WAIS) grounding on the bed rock it rests on. This will lead to an accelerated collapse of the WAIS and a substantial rise in sea level. This sea level rise coupled with what is already going on in melting the Greenland ice sheet (largely unrelated to deep water warming), will mean sea levels rise so precipitously, that millions of people will be forced to become Climate Migrants (Climigration).

Where? Bangladesh and the Maldives for sure, most probably New Orleans, Lewes and Rehoboth-DE, New York City, and MANY other places around the World.

So "Optimistic Bill"....What would you do???

I would put more money into making nuclear fusion work. That is a route that essentially will work for all time....as best we can define that phrase.

Optimistic Bill

PS - I am loving the Rehoboth Film Festival, and just saw The Rocket. I used to love to make rockets as a kid.... and I got pretty good at it. But the 10 year old star of this moving far eclipsed me.

Global Warming Put to Music

After yesterday's anouncement by Obama of the formation of a climate change task force (which includes Delaware's Markell), maybe this piece by Daniel Crawford titled, A Song of Our Warming Planet, should be adopted as the task force's theme song. It is the top video link on Andrew Revkin's blog. Note that if warming continues at the present rate, by 2100 some notes will be inaudible to the human ear.

The pause in global warming...Real??? and if so Why???

My sense has been that the increased heat input to Earth due to increased greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the oceans, and thus caused a temporary pause in land surface temperature rise.

And that may be correct, but here from expert climatologist Dr. Richard Muller of Berkeley, is a more detailed analysis,  A Pause, Not an End, to Warming   (click top link to NY Times article, plus also please explore Berkeley Earth, as we will be exploring it in our upcoming class).

Predicting Climate Change - Fall 2013 OLLI Class, Lewes, DE

Course Description:

It is widely agreed that climate change is happening, but there is not much consensus among predictions, at what rate climate change will occur, and what will be all the effects of climate change. This workshop style class will explore current climate change predictions, and discuss what is predicted to happen in Delaware, as well as in the rest of the world.

Often cited effects of climate change are rising sea levels, increased storm intensity, shifting rainfall patterns, loss of arable land, ocean acidification, displacement of people and wildlife, extinction of plant and animal species, etc. Participants will be encouraged to present their ideas and findings to the rest of the class. We will have on-screen internet access to facilitate presentations.

Class dates and times to be announced

Bill Fintel     May 22, 2013 

July hottest month ever in US, 4th globally

From NOAA Climate Watch Magazine

According to the latest statistics from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center, the average temperature for the contiguous United States during July was 77.6°F, which is 3.3°F above the 20th-century average. This marks the warmest July and–given that July is the typically the warmest month of the year—the warmest month on record for the nation.

 And from NOAA National Climatic Data Center

The globally-averaged temperature for July 2012 marked the fourth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880. July 2012 also marks the 36^th consecutive July and 329^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average.

1.6 Billion data points say Earth is warming

According to Richard A. Muller, professor of physics at the University of California,  "Global warming is real and greenhouse-gas emissions from human activity are the main cause."

What adds to the impact of this quote is that Richard Muller was once a serious global warming skeptic. To help him resolve the question of whether the Earth is really warming, he organized a small group of dedicated researchers to study all scientific Earth temperature data......in all 1.6 billion data points.

Richard is no longer a skeptic. He now firmly believes the Earth is warming because of human emissions, primarily CO2. For very concisely presented details on his group's study, see  BerkeleyEarth.org

Is Congress Really Listening?

It would appear they are, at least some of them. On Monday Physicist Richard Mueller from Berkley presented the findings by his study group to the House Committee on Natural Resources.

Mueller: "We confirm that over the last 50 years, temperature has risen 0.9 degrees Celsius, or 1.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This is the same number that the IPCC (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says."

Ranking committee Democrat Ed Markey lamented the United States' failure to act and applauded Australia's recent approval of a carbon tax to force its coal-fired power stations and other major emitters to "pay to pollute."

"The attacks on climate science have been a colossal distraction from the debate we should be having Congress on what actions should be taken to reduce pollution, create jobs, reclaim our lead in the clean energy race." (Markey)

Deep Oceans and Global Warming

"The planet’s deep oceans at times may absorb enough heat to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade even in the midst of longer-term warming, according to a new analysis led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)."

This new study includes very little actual data because there are very few measurements of deep (below 300 m) ocean temperatures. Its conclusions are based largely on sophisticated computer simulations:

"To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations. Using the model’s ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans, and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The two scientists, who are coauthors on the new study, suggested that the oceans might be storing some of the heat that would otherwise go toward other processes, such as warming the atmosphere or land, or melting more ice and snow."

“This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean,” Trenberth says. “The heat has not disappeared, and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences."

Earth's Energy Balance

The title link is to a NASA Earth Observatory page which discusses the July heat wave in the U.S. The article also provides some relatively easy to understand details about Earth's energy balance, and is conveniently summarized in the next-to-last paragraph:

"The temperature on any planet, including Earth, is controlled by energy from the Sun. The Sun provides an average 340 Watts per square meter to the Earth. That energy returns to space as either reflected energy or radiated heat. Over time, the total outgoing energy should equal the amount of energy coming in from the Sun. When incoming and outgoing energy don’t balance, Earth’s temperature will change until balance is restored."

Please note that it is easy to subscribe to postings from  NASA Earth Observatory on the linked page.

Stormier Weather, Evidence Mounting, Yasi Approaching Queensland

It may be decades before the evidence is conclusive, but the evidence that global warming (a measured fact) is causing more severe weather events certainly seems to be mounting. As of 2/1/11, poised just off Queensland, Australia, is Category 4 tropical cyclone Yasi.

"In a globally warmed world, the saying will be rewritten:  When it rains, it deluges. The warmest sea surface temperatures in Australian records have been fueling floods called ‘biblical’ — floods covering an area “the size of France and Germany combined.” ABC News has explained “Raging Waters In Australia and Brazil Product of Global Warming."

Queensland faces the threats of torrential rains, highly destructive winds up to 140 mph, and a tidal surge of up to 10 feet as Yasi comes ashore sometime Feb 2.

At the bottom of the article are many other links related to the probable connection between recent severe weather events and global warming.

Tied for Warmest

Actually, 2010 was the warmest year ever, but not by a statistically significant amount, so it gets ranked as tie with 2005. The above graph is from the NASA press release in the title link.