NASA - Vital Signs of Climate Change

Greenland from the air, April 17, 2010 - Bill Fintel photo

This NASA Link provides the latest World data in graphic form on Carbon Dioxide, Global Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Minimum, Land Ice, and Sea Level.

I am looking forward to our Osher Lifelong Learning class on Oceans and Climate Change, beginning March 13, 2018, in Lewes, DE.

Eternal Summer... of the most disastrous kind

Study Predicts Antarctica Ice Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned

From the NY Times, comes an article (link above) about global warming and burning fossil fuels that is best summed up by this quote:

“To be blunt: If we burn it all, we melt it all,” said Ricarda Winkelmann, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and the lead author of a paper published Friday in the journal Science Advances.

 Calving glacier on South Georgia, 2007 - Bill Fintel photo

To me the moral issues are as profound as any we have ever faced. From the article:

“What right do we have to do things that, even if they don’t affect us, are going to be someone else’s problem a thousand years from now?” asked Ian Joughin, an ice sheet expert at the University of Washington who was not involved in the new research. “Is it fair to do that so we can go on burning fuel as fast as we can?”

 

Natural Gas, Coal, and Climate Change

An Associated Press article in the NY Times titled,

Natural Gas Overtakes Coal in U.S. Electric Generation 

caught my attention, as I was not aware of the total magnitude of natural gas in U.S. electric generation. Natural gas has a distinct advantage over coal in electric generation, namely only about half the amount of carbon dioxide is emitted (1). But it also has drawbacks, such as methane leakage, and disruption of local communities. For a very thorough analysis of natural gas' role in averting climate change, read Joe Nocera's analysis in the NY Times Opinion Pages titled,

Shale Gas and Climate Change

Deep Ocean Fish, Earth's Carbon Cycle and Climate Change

This is a link that has not been studied much in the past because the total mass of deep ocean fish was estimated to be relatively small. Recent studies however are showing that this estimate is incorrect, and that the total numbers and mass of deep ocean (mesopelagic zone) fish is in fact enormous.

Following are highlights from the NY Times article, Dark Regions of the Ocean May Shed Light on Climate Change and Other Issues:

.......Dr. Irigoien’s expedition, which included oceanographers from Spain, Australia and Norway, sailed the globe in 2010 and 2011 and last year produced a detailed report that estimated the overall bulk of mesopelagic fishes at 10 billion tons, and perhaps even more......

That figure is not only 10 times the earlier estimate but 100 times the globe’s annual catch of seafood and 200 times the estimated biomass of the world’s 24 billion chickens, considered the most numerous vertebrate on land.

Seawater absorbs tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, including that produced by the burning of fossil fuels. The creatures, in turn, use carbon to build their bodies, which eventually join the rain of life detritus into the abyss. (The bodies of humans are about 18 percent carbon, and those of mesopelagic fish about 8 percent.)

This carbon uptake by mesopelagic life prompted Villy Christensen, a fish scientist at the University of British Columbia, to call the deep creatures “unrecognized allies against climate change” and to oppose their harvesting.

This little fish, the Bristlemouth, sure looks like an ally to me.  

 Picture from the NY Times

Thanks to my sister-in-law Dianne for pointing out the above article

Why politically motivated science is good science

Climate denialism is the real “hoax”: Why “politically motivated” science is good science  

The above linked article by Naomi Oreskes published in Salon presents an excellent case for government funded research on climate change.

We knew....BUT the remedies seemed so dificult!!!

The above pessimistic carton is from THE RECORDER, of Greenfield, Mass.

A one line quote by Ban Ki Moon from the linked article:
"....Climate change is the defining issue of our time."

It is an excellent article. The lead in paragraph is a real eye opener:

"On April 28, Cardinal Peter Turkson, released the following statement, “In our recklessness, we are traversing some of the planet’s most fundamental natural boundaries, and the lesson from the Garden of Eden still rings true today: pride, hubris, self-centeredness are always perilous, indeed destructive. The very technology that has brought great reward is now poised to bring great ruin."

Oceans and Climate Change

The New York Times has just published a fascinating article about a 4 year study of ocean pelagic small organisms, from viruses and bacteria, to crustaceans, jelly fish, and salps. Be sure to watch the slide show, it is truly AMAZING!!!
  
Scientists Sample the Ocean and Find Tiny Additions to the Tree of Life
“A lot of what we didn’t really ever see before in the ocean are predators and parasites, zombies and vampires that are floating through this incredible set of diversity, battling it out,” Dr. Palumbi said. “All these tiny little critters add up to something that is really a part of the way our planet operates.”

Melting in East Antarctica...a new doom signal to coastal cities

East Antarctica has always been considered "melt-proof" for many centuries. No longer so. From the Washington Post, March 16, 2015, see this blog post by Chris Mooney:

The melting of Antarctica was already really bad. It just got worse.

 

Florida and Mother Jones

Mother Jones did it right in describing the Florida debacle over verbal directives to not use the phrases "climate change" and "global warming".....as we discussed in the beginning of today's OLLI class on Oceans and Climate Change.

Oceans and Climate Change Class - 3/2/15 Summary

The first class on 3/2 outlined topics planned for all 5 classes, plus covered details about sea level rise, its causes, effects and responses.

Planned topics for all 5 classes:
Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Ocean temperature and current changes
Marine ecosystem changes
Arctic sea ice extent and its global impacts
Antarctica and Greenland ice loss
Change in intensity of major storms - scientific basis for worsening

Links to specific topics presented 3/2/15:
Article on "Willie" Soon from Washington Post
Quantifying CO2 contributions from Forbes
NASA home page for climate measurements
Yale video on West Antarctic Ice Sheet
NASA video on Greenland Ice Sheet
IPCC 2013 Projections of Sea Level Rise
Kivalina, AK
Vunidogoloa, FIJI
NYC Climate Change Report
Norfolk, VA video from PBS

Based on class input, topics to be emphasized in next 4 classes include:
More on local sea level rise, especially Delaware
Ocean temperature and current changes
Marine ecosystem changes - fish populations, coral reefs, clams and crabs
Arctic sea ice extent and its global impact
Changing intensity of major storms - scientific basis for worsening

And a final word from the Indian Yellow-nosed Albatross:
"Going to snow again? Get with the picture petrel! We are in the midst of a global warming crisis!!!"

EDF's Blueprint for Climate Stability

The Environmental Defense Fund's Blueprint for Climate Stability presents a very positive position that climate stability can be achieved relatively soon, and specifically that carbon emissions can be slowed to a peak in 2020, and brought into steady decline out through 2100.

Do I believe that can be achieved? Let me just say I believe the technology exists. I just hope that we humans are able to organize and accomplish the huge task required.

For additional details on all EDF's programs, see their Blueprint 2020. It is a 58 page detailed presentation of their programs, from climate change to oceans to agricultural pollutants to world health. It also contains an extensive and interactive list of internet references at the end.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Annual Cycle Visualization from NASA

We have the science to understand and deal with global warming, we just don't have the willpower.

The NASA video in this link from Climate Central is truly amazing...and scary. Be sure to note the CO2 scaling in the key. The effect of vegetative growth on CO2 concentrations is also impressive, and highlights two other key avenues to reduced CO2....(1) stop cutting down forests to raise beef, and (2) promote reforestation and grassland restoration.

Climate Change 2014: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Nov 1, 2014 released a new report titled:

Climate Change 2014

Synthesis Report

It is available in 2 versions: a shorter version of 40 pages for policy makers, and a longer version of 116 pages. Both can be accessed HERE.

Even the shorter version for policymakers is very technical (but I am sure our policymakers have good technical people on their staff). Also many referenced figures are not yet included, and every page has a disclaimer at the bottom saying, "Subject to copy editing and layout".

Even so, there is a vast amount of current information on climate change prepared by some of the world's most qualified scientists. I will begin a series of posts on this subject by quoting a few highlights, then in subsequent posts I will focus on the oceans involvement, as I will be doing a class on The World's Oceans and Climate Change for Osher Lifelong Learning (Lewes, DE) in the spring of 2015.

Following are two paragraphs from page 3 of the 40 page summary for policy makers:

1.1 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.8 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced data sets exist.

Delaware Climate Impact Assessment from DNREC

The web page with links for all sections of this report is HERE. There is a superficial summary link on the left side of this page, and to the right are detailed links to all pages in hi-res.

My recommendation is start with the Executive Summary, and then see how much more you want to read. It is a very long report, and does NOT address any action plans. The report is designed to provide action planners with facts, and it does so in great detail with thorough referencing.

This link is thanks to Dr. Daniel Leathers, Delaware State Climatologist, who spoke at Rae Tyson's Oct 15, 2014 class on Climate Change in Delaware.

"Safe Coast Virginia"....and a Delaware connection

The following report was co-authored by Rae Tyson, who is the instructor for the current Osher Lifelong Learning class, Climate Change in Delaware.

Safe Coast Virginia

I highly recommend it, as a great deal of what is presented is applicable to Delaware, because Delaware also has so much infrastructure and investment barely-above-sea level. The recommended "Ten Point Action Plan" is very well thought out and specific... a most welcome addition compared to so many gloom and doom reports with only vague recommendations.

Plant-based Eating, World Health, and Climate Change

Following is a superb link about why plant-based eating is so good for your health. It is from a major health insurance company, Kaiser Permante, so they have a major axe to grind in keeping you healthy...

.....unlike many doctors who have a major stake in making a living having you tested and treated more and more.

Some dramatic satellite pics of UK flooding

No doubt you have all read about the long and disastrous flooding in the SW of the UK. From Earth Observatory, here is a satellite image of the latest storm, and here are images of the regions affected, both before, and after the storms.

Now are the storms caused by global warming due to greatly increased greenhouse gas emissions? Scientific opinions lean to "Yes", but are cautious to say that proof is not possible at this time. And yes, I agree, but I also feel that the science behind what is forecast, and what is happening is very soundly connected.

Global Warming and the current "Polar Vortex"

Does it add up? The Earth is warming, and yet many US locations are about to equal or exceed previous low temperature records.

In a nutshell, earth and climate science support what is happening. The northern hemisphere jet stream is being slowed by arctic warming, and in slowing, it is becoming more erratic in its north south wanderings. These larger wanderings are allowing very cold arctic air to spill farther into the US, just like is now happening.

Want to get more scientific than me? Sure you do, so visit QUARTZ, and do watch at least the short video by Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University.

How Global Warming Works

If you are an OLLI student of Bill's Climate classes, you should know the correct answer.

Want to check your interpretation, or find a concise explanation to send to others, visit:

HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org  My preference among their videos is the under 3 minutes video.

Fall 2013 Class Presentations, and OB's outlook

It has been a busy time for me since our class ended, but I have finally gotten up the entire Fall 2013 class presentations. Again, thanks so much for your interest, enthusiasm and great questions. You are the ones that "pay" the OLLI instructors, with a currency much more valuable than dollars.

I am also looking forward to doing future climate classes with OLLI. And yes, I will try to be more optimistic in my outlook and predictions. I really do think WE, the people of the World, have the capabilities to prevent a climate change catastrophe. We just have to put together a unified plan.

Happy Holidays,
Optimistic Bill (aka OB)