Sunday, November 2, 2014

Climate Change 2014: IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on Nov 1, 2014 released a new report titled:
Climate Change 2014
Synthesis Report
It is available in 2 versions: a shorter version of 40 pages for policy makers, and a longer version of 116 pages. Both can be accessed HERE.

Even the shorter version for policymakers is very technical (but I am sure our policymakers have good technical people on their staff). Also many referenced figures are not yet included, and every page has a disclaimer at the bottom saying, "Subject to copy editing and layout".

Even so, there is a vast amount of current information on climate change prepared by some of the world's most qualified scientists. I will begin a series of posts on this subject by quoting a few highlights, then in subsequent posts I will focus on the oceans involvement, as I will be doing a class on The World's Oceans and Climate Change for Osher Lifelong Learning (Lewes, DE) in the spring of 2015.

Following are two paragraphs from page 3 of the 40 page summary for policy makers:

1.1 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen.

Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850. The period from 1983 to 2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years in the Northern Hemisphere, where such assessment is possible (medium confidence). The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.8 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012, when multiple independently produced data sets exist.

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